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MAKALE<br />
AN OVERVIEW OF THE DURUM WHEAT MARKETS<br />
Türkiye Durum Buğdayı Arz Talep Dengesi (milyon ton)<br />
Turkey Durum Wheat Supply and demand equilibrium (million tonnes)<br />
Üretim<br />
production<br />
tüketim<br />
consumption<br />
Kaynak/Source: Uluslararası Hububat Konseyi /International Grain Council (IGC)<br />
sonundan itibaren düşüşe<br />
geçmiştir. Sezon başında<br />
sektörün hasadın erken<br />
(Mayıs) başladığı Meksika<br />
başta olmak üzere yüksek<br />
seviyelerde ithalat bağlantısı<br />
gerçekleştirmesi sonucunda<br />
yurt <strong>iç</strong>i talepte yaşanan<br />
gerileme makarnalık buğday<br />
fiyatlarına da yansımıştır.<br />
İç fiyatlar, Kasım ayından<br />
itibaren piyasada arzın<br />
daralması, Kanada buğdayında<br />
yaşanan kalite problemi<br />
(Vomitoksin) ve dolar<br />
kurundaki yükselişin de<br />
etkisiyle yükselişe geçmiştir.<br />
2017/18 dönemi <strong>iç</strong>in yapılan<br />
kışlık ekilişlerin durumuna<br />
bakıldığında; Ekim ve Kasım<br />
aylarındaki yağışların<br />
geçen yılın ve uzun yıllar<br />
ortalamasının altında olması<br />
özellikle İç Anadolu Bölgesi<br />
<strong>iç</strong>in üretimde azalış beklentisi<br />
yaratmaktadır. Ancak<br />
bundan sonraki süreçte hava<br />
koşullarının olumlu seyretmesi<br />
halinde üretim azalışı cüzi<br />
boyutlarda kalabilecektir.<br />
ithalat<br />
import<br />
ticaret<br />
commerce<br />
stoklar<br />
stocks<br />
Mycotoxins in herbal products are<br />
contagious. It can be transmitted to<br />
animals, animal products, humans or<br />
directly from herbal products to human<br />
beings. Due to its toxic properties, should<br />
not be used both in human food and in<br />
animal feed.<br />
In Canada, a variety of mycotoxins<br />
called vomitoxin problem came in<br />
sight in the current period. Maximum<br />
limit of vomitoxin, or Deoxynivalenol<br />
(DON) alias, for durum wheat is 1750<br />
µg/kg according to Turkish Food<br />
Codex Contaminants Regulation.<br />
The limit is same with the EU, since<br />
the Contaminants Regulation has<br />
been prepared in parallel to the EU<br />
Commision Regulation. This limit is<br />
2 mg/kg in Canada, where vomitoxin<br />
problem has been experienced.<br />
In this regard, it can be easily said<br />
that pasta manufacturers have faced<br />
with the presence of low-quality raw<br />
materials. Therefore, the current<br />
situation in the market rushes forward<br />
for the decline in the exports of the<br />
country and reflected as an increse in<br />
expectations for the prices.<br />
The current situation of the market can<br />
be summarized as, in 2016/17 period<br />
due to high but poor quality of harvest<br />
in world durum wheat markets, the<br />
prices (CWAD) are above 15-20% above<br />
compared with the last year and despite<br />
to the increase in production world<br />
trade will remain same as the previous<br />
year.<br />
If we have a look at Turkish wheat<br />
market, production in the current<br />
year is estimated to be 2 million tons<br />
with a decrease of 9% and due to<br />
decreases in glüten index, hektoliter<br />
and energy values of wheat, it can<br />
easily be observed that market actors<br />
have problems with providing qualified<br />
materials.<br />
Turkish durum wheat production, which<br />
draw a fluctating graphic within the<br />
last 5 years, is estimated to be realized<br />
at a level of 3,7 million tons with a<br />
decrease of 9,76% compared with the<br />
last year. As of October, the main 5<br />
leading countries in Turkey’s durum<br />
wheat imports, which corresponds<br />
to 479 thousand tons, are Mexico,<br />
Canada, Greece, Russia Federation<br />
and Kazakhstan respectively. India,<br />
where a remarkable amount of imports<br />
have been realized in the years 2014<br />
and 2015, does not take place in this<br />
gradation.<br />
Bginning from the first months of<br />
the current year, the upwad trends<br />
observed in durum wheat prices have<br />
been declining since the end of June.<br />
At the beginning of the season, as a<br />
result of high import connections from<br />
Mexico, where harvest started early<br />
(in May), the decline in domestic trend<br />
is also refected in the prices of durum<br />
wheat. Beginning from November, due<br />
to the effects of narrowing in the supply,<br />
quality problem (Vomitoxin) experienced<br />
in Canada and the rise in dollar<br />
exchange, domestic prices have passed<br />
on an upward trend.<br />
Considering the state of cultivation<br />
for the period of 2017/18, since the<br />
rainfalls in October and in November<br />
are below than both the previous year<br />
and average of long-term years, it<br />
creates the expectation of a decline in<br />
production especially for the Central<br />
Anatolia Region. However, if the weather<br />
conditions remain favorable in the<br />
future, the decline in production shall<br />
remain insignificant.<br />
Ocak-Şubat-Mart / January-February-March 2017<br />
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