vgbe energy journal 11 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Future Energy Systems
Impact of varying boundary
conditions on the development of
future energy systems
Andreas Hanel, Sebastian Fendt and Hartmut Spliethoff
Abstract
Einfluss wechselnder Randbedingungen
auf die Entwicklung zukünftiger
Energiesysteme
Immer häufiger kommt es zu großräumigen
Ereignissen, die unsere Energieversorgung betreffen.
Um mögliche Zukunftsszenarien und
Transformationspfade unseres Energiesystems
zu identifizieren, wird das deutsche Energiesystem
von einer Vielzahl von Instituten in
Energiesystemmodellen untersucht. In diesem
Artikel werden 40 solcher Systemstudien mit
Fokus auf den deutschen Stromsektor analysiert.
In allen Szenarien wird ein starker Ausbau
der erneuerbaren Energien angenommen.
Grund dafür ist insbesondere die fortschreitende
Elektrifizierung und der zunehmende
Einsatz von Power-to-X-Technologien. Nichtsdestotrotz
werden konventionelle Kraftwerke
in den meisten Studien als wichtige Flexibili-
Authors
Andreas Hanel, M.Sc.
Research Associate
Dr.-Ing. Sebastian Fendt
Group Leader
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Hartmut Spliethoff
Head of Institute
Chair of Energy Systems
TUM School of Engineering and
Design
Technical University of Munich
Munich, Germany
tätslieferanten sowohl während der Transformation
als auch auf lange Sicht betrachtet.
Die größten Unterschiede innerhalb der Studien
liegen in der Darstellung der Sektoren Wärme,
Mobilität und Industrie. Der Einfluss sich
ändernder Randbedingungen wird untersucht,
wobei insbesondere die gesellschaftliche
Akzeptanz und das Ambitionsniveau einen
starken Einfluss zeigen. Geringe Ambitionen
oder gesellschaftliche Widerstände führen in
den meisten Fällen zu einem Mehraufwand bei
der Transformation des Energiesystems und
damit zu höheren Kosten, die letztlich von der
Allgemeinheit getragen werden müssen. Insbesondere
der Ausbau von Windkraftanlagen
sollte in enger Kooperation mit der Bevölkerung
angegangen werden, um die ehrgeizigen
aktuellen Ausbauziele der Bundesregierung
erreichen zu können.
l
With increasing frequency, we are experiencing
large-scale events that affect our energy
supply. To identify possible future scenarios
and transformation paths of our energy system,
a large number of institutes are studying
the German energy system in energy system
models. In this article, 40 such system studies
are analyzed with a focus on the German power
sector. In all scenarios, a strong expansion of
renewable energies is assumed. The reason for
this is in particular the advancing electrification
and increasing application of power-to-X
technologies. Nevertheless, conventional power
plants are considered in most studies as important
flexibility providers both during the
transformation and in the long term. The largest
differences within the studies are based on
the representation of the heat, mobility and
industry sectors. The influence of changing
boundary conditions is examined, where in
particular, societal acceptance and the level of
ambition show a strong influence. In most
cases, low ambition or societal resistance lead
to an additional effort regarding the transformation
of the energy system and thus to higher
costs, which ultimately have to be paid by the
general public. In particular, the expansion of
wind power plants should be approached in
close cooperation with the population in order
to be able to meet the ambitious current expansion
targets of the German government.
1 Introduction
The transformation of an energy system is
always dependent on many influencing variables.
Technological developments, political
decisions and major events are often unpredictable.
In order to ensure security of supply,
price stability and climate protection
altogether, decisions regarding political requirements
and investments are often made
on the basis of energy system studies. These
studies use abstracted digital twins of the
energy system to estimate possible future
developments via varying boundary conditions
and assumptions. The goal is not to
present an exact forecast of the future system,
but rather to show possible development
pathways. The many and regularly
changing political and social boundary conditions,
as well as technical developments,
lead to a wide range of assumptions and results
and thus to a large number of future
scenarios - i.e. of the German energy system.
Comparability is usually limited and is usually
left to the reader. Meta-studies, i.e. the
systematic comparison of several studies,
are an attempt to simplify the interpretability
of system studies. This article is a summary
of the results published by the authors
in “Kampf der Studien – Ein Uptdate” [1].
The aim of this meta-study is to provide an
overview of current trends in system studies,
as well as an analysis of the influence of
boundary conditions on the study results.
2 Energy system studies
Energy system studies are investigations
into the behavior of the energy supply of a
defined region. The interaction of the supply
of electricity, heat and energy carriers is
called energy system. The general structure
of energy system studies is described in detail
in a study by Buttler and Spliethoff [2].
In the same way, there are already detailed
review publications on modeling and simulation
of energy systems, for example by
Subramanian et al [3].
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