vgbe energy journal 11 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

Future Energy Systems
In summary, most energy system studies consist
of a selection of scenarios, each of which
represents the solution of an optimization
problem under changing boundary conditions.
The energy system is represented in a
highly abstracted way as a set of energy and
mass balances with the corresponding
boundary conditions. The three main components
are the incoming energy and material
flows, the technologies for energy conversion
and transport as well as the respective energy
demand of the considered sectors.
In principle, the prediction of future events
and thus also the development of an energy
system is not possible. The widespread assumption
that decisions can be made on the
basis of a perfect future scenario is not true
due to its non-existence [4]. Rather, individual
scenarios always have to be interpreted
in context of the respective boundary
conditions. Nevertheless, energy system
studies are broadly used to discuss economic
and political decisions.
2.1 Considered Studies
The selection of system studies used for this
meta-analysis is based on a set of criteria.
The minimum requirements for the studies
are as follows:
––
Considered time frame at least until 2030
––
Publication in 2017 or newer
––
Reference energy system is the German
power sector
––
Only studies with quantitative results are
considered
However, when selecting the studies, special
emphasis was placed on obtaining a broad
data basis regarding various institutes,
sponsors and different thematic focuses.
Ta b l e 1 shows a list of the 40 studies considered.
A more detailed description of the
individual studies can be found in [1].
2.2 Definition of scenario
characteristics
Each of the studies considered contains an
average of 4 scenarios. The various boundary
conditions that are imposed on the respective
scenarios serve to map the possible
development trends of, for example, technologies,
political decisions or social acceptance
for measures. Most of the scenarios can
be divided into four or five scenario types
(see Ta b l e 2 ). These types are used as a
mandatory allocation for each scenario. In
addition to the categorization, each scenario
can be described by further characteristics.
While the scenario types each stand for a set
of several characteristics, a more detailed
analysis of the influences of the boundary
conditions can be examined by separate
analysis of each characteristic. For this purpose,
the influence of a selection of characteristics
(see Ta b l e 3 ) is evaluated in section
3.2.
Tab. 1. Summary of all considered studies and respective reference as further used.
Ref.
Titel
[5] Wasserstoffbasierte Industrie in Deutschland und Europa
[6] Energiewirtschaftliche Projektionen und Folgeabschätzungen 2030/2050
[7] Strommarkt und Klimaschutz: Transformation der Stromerzeugung bis 2050
[8] Klimaneutrales Deutschland 2045
[9] Netzentwicklungsplan Strom 2035
[10] Das „BEE-Szenario 2030“
[11] dena-Leitstudie Aufbruch Klimaneutralität
[12] Klimaneutrales Deutschland
[13] Strommarktentwicklung und Braunkohlebedarf unter der Prämisse
des Braunkohleausstiegspfads
[14] Wege zu einem klimaneutralen Energiesystem
[15] Politikszenarien VIII
[16] Transformation des Energiesystems bis zum Jahr 2030
[17] Wege für die Energiewende – Kosteneffiziente und klimagerechte
Transformationsstrategien für das deutsche Energiesystem bis zum Jahr 2050
[18] Wasserstoff- Studie. Chancen, Potentiale & Herausforderungen im globalen
Energiesystem.
[19] Auswirkungen einer Beendigung der Kohleverstromung bis 2038 auf den Strommarkt,
CO 2 -Emissionen und ausgewählte Industrien
[20] Projektionsbericht der Bundesregierung 2019
[21] Zukunft Stromsystem II – Regionalisierung der erneuerbaren Stromerzeugung
[22] Modellbasierte Szenarienuntersuchung der Entwicklungen im deutschen Stromsystem
unter Berücksichtigung des europäischen Kontexts bis 2050
[23] Das „BEE-Szenario 2030“
[24] Noch ist erfolgreicher Klimaschutz möglich
[25] Analyse von Strukturoptionen zur Integration erneuerbarer Energien in Deutschland und
Europa unter Berücksichtigung der Versorgungssicherheit
[26] Energy systems: Demand perspective (WP5 Summary report)
[27] Pathways for Germany’s Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Towards 2050
[28] Technoökonomische Analyse und Transformationspfade des energetischen
Biomassepotentials
[29] Wege in eine ressourcenschonende Treibhausgasneutralität
[30] Netzentwicklungsplan Strom 2030
[31] Erneuerbare Energien als Schlüssel für das Erreichen der Klimaschutzziele im Stromsektor
[32] Langfristszenarien für die Transformation des Energiesystems in Deutschland
[33] dena-Leitstudie Integrierte Energiewende
[34] Klimapfade für Deutschland
[35] Innovation Energiespeicher – Chancen der deutschen Industrie
[36] Szenarien für den Strommix zukünftiger, flexibler Verbraucher
am Beispiel von P2X-Technologien
[37] Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz VII – Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien
bis zum Jahr 2035
[38] The role of hydrogen, battery-electric vehicles and heat as flexibility option in future
energy systems
[39] Energiemarkt 2030 und 2050 – Der Beitrag von Gas- und Wärmeinfrastruktur
zu einer effizienten CO 2 -Minderung
[40] »Sektorkopplung« – Optionen für die nächste Phase der Energiewende
[41] Klimaschutz im Stromsektor 2030 - Vergleich von Instrumenten zur Emissionsminderung
[42] Shell Energieszenarien für Deutschland
[43] Zukunft Stromsystem – Kohleausstieg 2035
[44] Erneuerbare Gase – ein Systemupdate der Energiewende
In contrast to the scenario types presented
above, the assignment of additional characteristics
is not mandatory. The assignment
can be divided into two groups. The first
group includes all characteristics, which are
determined by the presence or absence (yes
or no). The second group has a three-stage
gradient into high, mid and low. The first
group includes, for example, the consideration
of the coal phase-out by 2038, the nuclear
power phase-out or the explicit
achievement of the greenhouse gas emission
targets according to the Climate Protection
Plan 2050. Regarding the second, three-level
characterization, the use of a variety of characteristics
is possible to describe the scenari-
34 | vgbe energy journal 11 · 2022