vgbe energy journal 11 (2022) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

World Energy Outlook 2022 – Summary
Coal unabated
Natural gas unabated
Other
Low-emissions sources of electricity, led by renewables,
are poised to overtake fossil fuels by 2030 in the STEPS
and APS, ending decades of growth for coal.
Share
13 %
10 %
20 % 28 %
67 %
62 %
Fig. 7. How is the electricity mix changing?
2030, equivalent to adding the current level
of demand in the United States and the European
Union. In advanced economies,
transport is the largest contributor to increased
electricity demand as the market
share of electric cars rises from about 8 % in
2021 to 32 % in the STEPS and almost 50 %
in the APS by 2030. In emerging market and
developing economies, population growth
and rising demand for cooling contribute to
increasing electricity demand. In China, air
conditioner ownership expands by around
10 %
43 %
47 %
1 %
10 %
49 %
41 %
2010 2021 STEPS 2030 2021 APS 2030
Unabated fossil fuels Renewables Nuclear Other
Renewables
Solar PV
Wind
Other renewables
40 % from current levels in the STEPS and
APS by 2030. Electricity provides a rising
share of total final energy consumption in all
economies. Global electricity demand in
2050 is over 75 % higher in the STEPS than
it is today, 120 % higher in the APS and
150 % higher in the Net Zero Emissions by
2050 (NZE) Scenario.
Recently, coal use in the electricity sector
has seen an uptick in many countries in response
to strong demand, high natural gas
prices and energy security concerns, but this
is expected to be temporary. Even in the
STEPS, unabated coal falls from 36 % of
generation in 2021 to 26 % in 2030 and 12 %
in 2050, reflecting renewables growth, led
by solar PV and wind. (F i g u r e 7 ) In the
APS, pledges including net zero emissions
targets in 83 countries and the European
Union, are met on time and in full. This accelerates
clean energy transitions. Renewables
in electricity generation rise from 28 %
in 2021 to about 50 % by 2030 and 80 % by
2050. Unabated coal falls to just 3 % in
2050. Solar PV capacity additions expand
from 151 gigawatts (GW) in 2021 to 370 GW
in 2030 and almost 600 GW in 2050, while
wind capacity additions double to 210 GW
in 2030 and rise to 275 GW in 2050. Recent
events, market conditions and policies are
shifting views on natural gas and limiting its
role, while underlining the potential for nuclear
power to cut emissions and strengthen
electricity security.
Electricity systems faced a number of challenges
to affordability and security over the
last year (F i g u r e 8 and F i g u r e 9 ). We
estimate that market conditions and the energy
crisis are raising the global average cost
of electricity supply by almost 30 % in 2022.
The European Union is facing particular
pressures following a tripling of wholesale
electricity prices in the first-half of 2022
relative to the previous year. This is mainly a
consequence of record high natural gas prices,
but it also reflects higher coal, oil and
CO 2 prices, exacerbated by reduced availability
of nuclear and hydropower. Actions to
reduce energy use, projected reductions in
fuel prices, planned nuclear restarts and
possible market design reforms all offer potential
future relief. Climate-related risks,
Global electricity demand rises by 25-30 % to 2030
in the STEPS and APS due to more electric motors,
EVs, heat pumps and hydrogen.
2010
Change 2010-21
20 000 units in 2010
+ 17
STEPS 2021-30
APS 2021-30
Electric cars
What new power
capacity will be built?
Renewables are set to dominate global capacity
additions, accounting for 75-80 % of all new capacity to
2050 in the STEPS and APS, led by solar PV and wind.
80 %
+167
+214
Million units
Hydrogen
40 %
Aluminium
0 %
Chemicals
Space heating
Space cooling
0 750 1 500 2 250 3 000 TWh
Fig. 8. What drives electricity demand growth?
China European India Korea Afrika Middle
Union
United States
East
Japan
Central and
South America
World
Southeast Asia
Solar PV Wind Hydro Bioenergy
Other renewables APS 2050
Fig. 9. What new power capacity will be built?
80 | vgbe energy journal 11 · 2022