A. Status of the Spectacled Eider - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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TASK PRIOR. U — DS.3 3 TASK DESCRIPTION TASK DURA- TION Investigate lead shot TDD dintaibsalon sad deseity ha AR. [36.2 3 huvastIgate lead ska IRD pasalesonassad availability on tIre NS. P1.4 3 113 3 Aseesa Urn lasalbility of TDD adtlating a lausceat stuvey ha Rausla. Detsetnisre gearneic variability I wIthin eachof tIre thaea sausting p~arn. 22.4 3 Conq,ase diatrihatloas of TBD Speotacled Eider body oraditlon with bus ofrelated RESPONS. TOTAL COST ESTIMATES (SI axI) IDLE COST PARTY ~ J YEAR 2 YEAR 2 j YEAR 3 j YEAR 4 I YEAR S I COMMENTS — — — —I PWS TDD . - . - TDD based on haslbilityof wrrnklq NM ha AR,sad — fecetlur atadlas. FWS TBD . NM FWS TID - FWS 20.00 20 NM FWS TBD . NM — — — — — — — — — —- — Tj PRIORITY 3 TASKS. SUBTOTAL 206500 433.00 PRIOPJFY 2 TASKS - SUBTOTAL 390000 f 2354.00 PRIORITY I TASKS- SUBTOTAL [299400~ 935.00 GRAND TOTAL [ 796700 2725.00 100 . . . TID based on aimmay repast on eestaaolsust.. 0 325.00 526.00 729.00 2553.00 0 0 0 0 0 TDDbased on kasIblIlty ofworblsag ha AR, and phau for otlaurstadlas. . - TUDhued on stasasmay repasts. 320.00 p6.00 629.00 2723.00 3.00 47600 33400 633.00 3.00 476.00 354.00 533.00
APPENDIX I POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR SPECTACLED ElDERS 1nttQdu~tiQn PVA Background Population Viability Analysis (PVA) is an analytical technique that is used to estimate a Minimum Viable Population (MVP) (Gilpin & Sou1~ 1986). UViableU is defined as a chosen probability of persisting for a given time (Shaffer 1981; Frankel & Soul~ 1981). For example, Shaffer (1987) proposed that Minimum Viable Population be defined as that population size that will have a 99% chance of surviving for 1,000 years. The future is unpredictable, so it is impossible to predict the exact extinction time of any population. An understanding of how population growth rates vary temporally allows the calculation of a distribution of possible extinction times. Numerous factors that influence the growth rate of populations, such as susceptibility to changing weather and food resources, genetics, and behavior, must be integrated into these calculations. These risk factors fall into four categories (Shaffer 1987). The first risk factor is demographic stochasticity, which is caused by chance changes in birth and survival rates (Goodman 1987). A stochastic event implies an event that occurs by chance, such as a 50% chance of rain. Birth and survival events are chance events that, when taken over many individuals, have average probabilities of occurrence depending on age. When the number of individuals (sample size) becomes small, observed demographic rates vary simply because of sampling error. For example, with a population of 10 animals and a survival rate of0.95, in any given year it is not possible to observe a survival rate of 0.95. Instead, the observed rate would be 1.0, 0.9 or rarely =0.8.Thus, demographic stochasticity is a sampling phenomenon in which average demographic parameters remain constant. Demographic stochasticity is only important for populations of small sizes (
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SPECTACLED EIDER RECOVERY PLAN Team
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LITERATURE CITATION U.S. Fish and W
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE RECOVERY P
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TABLE OF CONTENTS DISCLAIMER PAGE 1
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Breeding
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A. Status of the Spectacled Eider R
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) a) j~ 25000 0 2 220000 C ~15000 ~
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B. Causes for Decline and Obstacles
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Increasing interest in avicultural
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Other conservation measures include
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D. Natural History of the Spectacle
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Figure 4. Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta loc
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DEL?A RUSSIA SPECTACLED EIDER RANGE
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helicopter surveys in the Prudhoe B
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geographic populations, because imm
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Figure 8. Study sites and land stat
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their diseases (e.g., Schiller 1954
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E. Distinct Population Segments The
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A final consideration involves info
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Trend data are analyzed to inform w
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Figure 10. A hypothetical posterior
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thresholds are not “magic numbers
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Criteria for Reclassifying from Thr
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Criteria for Delisting from Threate
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The final aspect ofSpectacled Eider
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concordance in their descriptions o
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data on both levels and effects oft
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implicated. In the absence of histo
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. - currently small size of the YKD
Page 60 and 61: implementation of the Memoranda ofA
Page 62 and 63: . take of Spectacled Eiders. In add
Page 64 and 65: . AlS. Produce a handbook summarizi
Page 66 and 67: . Bl.4. 1.3. Develop visibility cor
Page 68 and 69: B2. 1.1. Implement YKD satellite tr
Page 70 and 71: . Appendix Ill). Since epidermal ag
Page 72 and 73: . feasible if post-fledging staging
Page 74 and 75: presumed that their activities have
Page 76 and 77: contaminants within Spectacled Eide
Page 78 and 79: limited ability to withstand additi
Page 80 and 81: surface after a year and is no long
Page 82 and 83: . The reproductive stages (eggs, yo
Page 84 and 85: is inadequate to sustain “normal
Page 86 and 87: ___________ 1967. The geese of the
Page 88 and 89: Dementev, G.P., and N.A. Gladkov (e
Page 90 and 91: ___________ 1 964a. Observations on
Page 92 and 93: Nelson, E.W: 1887. Report upon natu
Page 94 and 95: ________ P.R. Wade, R.A. Stehn, and
Page 96 and 97: Robert M. Platte, Migratory Bird Ma
Page 98 and 99: KEY Task Duration and Costs TBD - T
Page 100 and 101: TASK 324.2 I 12.4.1 .2 PRIOR- — 2
Page 102 and 103: TASK I — [37 E12 EI.3 fTYU —PRI
Page 104 and 105: TASK PRIOR- Dj ITYU — — A12.3 2
Page 106 and 107: — TASK U — 135.2 PRIOR- TASK DE
Page 108 and 109: TASK U PRIOR- ITY U TASK DESCRIPTIO
Page 112 and 113: The final risk factor is the effect
Page 114 and 115: This PVA will treat two population
Page 116 and 117: Both aerial surveys are conducted a
Page 118 and 119: 0.2 0.15 -j i 4 0.1 0 -I 0.05 0.08
Page 120 and 121: emaining before the population reac
Page 122 and 123: ) critical population size; and (2)
Page 124 and 125: 40%. The population growth rate cri
Page 126 and 127: Table 1-2. Results of simulation wh
Page 128 and 129: Hilborn, R. and C.J. Walters. 1992.
Page 130 and 131: APPENDIX II TECHNICAL DETAILS OF TH
Page 132 and 133: The likelihood function for the par
Page 134 and 135: initial sample. Then the O~ were re
Page 136 and 137: LU ~0.8 z -J ~0.6 I-ET1 w107 480 m1
Page 138 and 139: LITERATURE CITED APPENDIX LI De la
Page 140 and 141: where x = age. The fertility rate i
Page 142 and 143: of older females: (1) older females
Page 144 and 145: RESULTS Solutions for single cause
Page 146 and 147: 0.1 0.08 ~0.06 4 0 0.04 0. 0.02 0 0
Page 148 and 149: growth rate. Perhaps this can be mo
Page 150 and 151: decline, by far the fastest way to
Page 152 and 153: LITERATURE CITED APPENDIX In Bailli
Page 154 and 155: APPENDIX IV SPECTACLED EIDER RECOVE
Page 156 and 157: APPENDIX V COMMENTS RECEIVED ON DRA
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