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A. Status of the Spectacled Eider - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

A. Status of the Spectacled Eider - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

A. Status of the Spectacled Eider - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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II. RECOVERY<br />

A. Objective <strong>and</strong> Criteria<br />

Overview<br />

The objective <strong>of</strong> this plan is to provide strategies that recover <strong>the</strong> world population <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>Spectacled</strong> <strong>Eider</strong>s so that <strong>the</strong> species can be delisted. Criteria <strong>and</strong> threshold levels for<br />

reclassifying. (i.e., from threatened to endangered or from endangered to threatened) <strong>and</strong> for -<br />

complete delisting are presented in <strong>the</strong> following discussion. Justification for <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong><br />

specific thresholds appears in Appendices I <strong>and</strong> II. The <strong>Service</strong> will obtain recommendations<br />

for reclassification <strong>and</strong> delisting from <strong>the</strong> <strong>Spectacled</strong> <strong>Eider</strong> Recovery Team, or, if <strong>the</strong><br />

Recovery Team no longer exists, by independent review <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> evidence by qualified scientists.<br />

For reclassifying <strong>the</strong> status <strong>of</strong> <strong>Spectacled</strong> <strong>Eider</strong>s, <strong>the</strong> status <strong>of</strong> each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 3 major populations<br />

will be considered independently. Unless o<strong>the</strong>rwise indicated, <strong>the</strong> term “population” means<br />

<strong>the</strong>pool <strong>of</strong>birds that breeds in one <strong>of</strong>three primary geographic areas (YKD, NS, <strong>and</strong> AR; see<br />

Section E, Introduction). A few tens <strong>of</strong> <strong>Spectacled</strong> <strong>Eider</strong>s also may nest on St. Lawrence<br />

Isl<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> Seward Peninsula <strong>of</strong> Alaska. For <strong>the</strong> purposes <strong>of</strong> this plan, <strong>the</strong>y will be<br />

classified with <strong>the</strong> NS population until data are obtained that support an alternative approach.<br />

The goal <strong>of</strong> classifying populations as threatened or endangered is to establish priorities for<br />

research <strong>and</strong> management according to <strong>the</strong> relative risk <strong>the</strong> populations face. One widely used<br />

measure <strong>of</strong> risk is <strong>the</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> becoming extinct in a specified amount <strong>of</strong> time. The<br />

probability <strong>of</strong> going extinct cannot be measured directly; it can, however, be estimated as <strong>the</strong><br />

consequence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> population growth rate <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> variability in that rate. For <strong>Spectacled</strong><br />

<strong>Eider</strong>s, we must convert abundance estimates through time (i.e., trends) into measures <strong>of</strong>risk<br />

(e.g., probabilities <strong>of</strong>extinction).<br />

Uncertainty in Decision-making<br />

Translating trend data into measures <strong>of</strong> risk is not a straightforward task. Because we cannot<br />

count all <strong>the</strong> birds in a population, measures <strong>of</strong>abundance are uncertain. In addition,<br />

population growth rates may be relatively constant through time or <strong>the</strong>y may fluctuate widely.<br />

This uncertainty makes our decisions about classifying a population according to risk uncertain<br />

as well. Appendices I <strong>and</strong> II address this complexity <strong>and</strong> describe in detail how population<br />

growth rate, estimated by regressing abundance against time, is translated into risk <strong>of</strong><br />

extinction. The implications <strong>of</strong>uncertainty are provided here in a less technical format.<br />

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