A. Status of the Spectacled Eider - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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0.2 0.15 -j i 4 0.1 0 -I 0.05 0.08 0.06 4 0.04 0 0.02 0.1 0.08 0.06 ‘4 O 0.04 0. 0.02 0 .0.12 Posterior -0.1 .0.08 -0.06 .004 .0.02 R BREEDING PAIR SURVEY Prior Posterior 0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 R GROUND PLOT SURVEY Prior Posterior 0 -0.3 .0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 R COASTAL SURVEY Figure 1-2. Prior and posterior distributions for the three surveys conducted on the YKD: a-breeding pair survey, b--ground plot survey, c--coastal survey. AppendixI - Page 8
As can be seen in Figure 1-2, the posterior distributions from the three surveys differ quite dramatically. We used data from the last 15 years for all three surveys to estimate a joint posterior distribution (Figure 1-3). Because the surveys were rather disparate, the analysis required eight million random selections of parameters to obtain the posterior distribution. Although the posterior distribution is very broad it is still highly likely that the YKD population has declined over the past 15 years. Figure 1-3. Prior and posterior distributions for only the last 15 years of all three surveys. The re-sampled 10,000 sets of values for the eight parameters represents thejoint posterior distribution. We utilize this joint posterior distribution to perform a PVA that includes the uncertainty in our data (the abundance index surveys) and the model (prior information on variability in r). We sequentially used each set of parameter values as input parameters for a stochastic population projection. Required input parameters are: N 0, r, and s~. Each simulation began with N0 individuals. The initial number, N0, was drawn from either the 1995 estimated abundance distribution for the Coastal or the Ground survey with equal probability. The simulation proceeded according to equation 1 (below), where r’ was drawn from a Normal distribution (mean = r, variance = ~ Both the time to extinction (
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SPECTACLED EIDER RECOVERY PLAN Team
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LITERATURE CITATION U.S. Fish and W
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE RECOVERY P
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TABLE OF CONTENTS DISCLAIMER PAGE 1
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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Breeding
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A. Status of the Spectacled Eider R
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) a) j~ 25000 0 2 220000 C ~15000 ~
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B. Causes for Decline and Obstacles
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Increasing interest in avicultural
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Other conservation measures include
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D. Natural History of the Spectacle
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Figure 4. Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta loc
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DEL?A RUSSIA SPECTACLED EIDER RANGE
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helicopter surveys in the Prudhoe B
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geographic populations, because imm
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Figure 8. Study sites and land stat
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their diseases (e.g., Schiller 1954
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E. Distinct Population Segments The
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A final consideration involves info
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Trend data are analyzed to inform w
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Figure 10. A hypothetical posterior
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thresholds are not “magic numbers
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Criteria for Reclassifying from Thr
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Criteria for Delisting from Threate
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The final aspect ofSpectacled Eider
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concordance in their descriptions o
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data on both levels and effects oft
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implicated. In the absence of histo
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. - currently small size of the YKD
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implementation of the Memoranda ofA
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. take of Spectacled Eiders. In add
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. AlS. Produce a handbook summarizi
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. Bl.4. 1.3. Develop visibility cor
Page 68 and 69: B2. 1.1. Implement YKD satellite tr
Page 70 and 71: . Appendix Ill). Since epidermal ag
Page 72 and 73: . feasible if post-fledging staging
Page 74 and 75: presumed that their activities have
Page 76 and 77: contaminants within Spectacled Eide
Page 78 and 79: limited ability to withstand additi
Page 80 and 81: surface after a year and is no long
Page 82 and 83: . The reproductive stages (eggs, yo
Page 84 and 85: is inadequate to sustain “normal
Page 86 and 87: ___________ 1967. The geese of the
Page 88 and 89: Dementev, G.P., and N.A. Gladkov (e
Page 90 and 91: ___________ 1 964a. Observations on
Page 92 and 93: Nelson, E.W: 1887. Report upon natu
Page 94 and 95: ________ P.R. Wade, R.A. Stehn, and
Page 96 and 97: Robert M. Platte, Migratory Bird Ma
Page 98 and 99: KEY Task Duration and Costs TBD - T
Page 100 and 101: TASK 324.2 I 12.4.1 .2 PRIOR- — 2
Page 102 and 103: TASK I — [37 E12 EI.3 fTYU —PRI
Page 104 and 105: TASK PRIOR- Dj ITYU — — A12.3 2
Page 106 and 107: — TASK U — 135.2 PRIOR- TASK DE
Page 108 and 109: TASK U PRIOR- ITY U TASK DESCRIPTIO
Page 110 and 111: TASK PRIOR. U — DS.3 3 TASK DESCR
Page 112 and 113: The final risk factor is the effect
Page 114 and 115: This PVA will treat two population
Page 116 and 117: Both aerial surveys are conducted a
Page 120 and 121: emaining before the population reac
Page 122 and 123: ) critical population size; and (2)
Page 124 and 125: 40%. The population growth rate cri
Page 126 and 127: Table 1-2. Results of simulation wh
Page 128 and 129: Hilborn, R. and C.J. Walters. 1992.
Page 130 and 131: APPENDIX II TECHNICAL DETAILS OF TH
Page 132 and 133: The likelihood function for the par
Page 134 and 135: initial sample. Then the O~ were re
Page 136 and 137: LU ~0.8 z -J ~0.6 I-ET1 w107 480 m1
Page 138 and 139: LITERATURE CITED APPENDIX LI De la
Page 140 and 141: where x = age. The fertility rate i
Page 142 and 143: of older females: (1) older females
Page 144 and 145: RESULTS Solutions for single cause
Page 146 and 147: 0.1 0.08 ~0.06 4 0 0.04 0. 0.02 0 0
Page 148 and 149: growth rate. Perhaps this can be mo
Page 150 and 151: decline, by far the fastest way to
Page 152 and 153: LITERATURE CITED APPENDIX In Bailli
Page 154 and 155: APPENDIX IV SPECTACLED EIDER RECOVE
Page 156 and 157: APPENDIX V COMMENTS RECEIVED ON DRA
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A. Status of the Spectacled Eider - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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