[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

Europe
The eternal leader?
Nov 13th 2009
An Italian phenomenon
Italy has become an anomaly in the Western world—a nation led by a populist and a society doggedly
resistant to liberalisation. How much of an anomaly Italy remains in 2010 will depend in large part on whether
its leader, Silvio Berlusconi, stays in office.
The disclosure of the 73-year-old Mr Berlusconi’s still unexplained relationship with a teenage girl, his nights
spent with women allegedly paid to give him sex, and above all his treatment of his now estranged wife,
Veronica Lario, have shrunk his stature in the eyes of many erstwhile admirers (though not as many as non-
Italians might imagine). A large part of the Italian elite is exasperated by his Nero-like behaviour: Roman
Catholic bishops, with whom his pet editor picked a row over their newspaper’s criticism of Mr Berlusconi’s
private life; bankers, diplomats and intelligence officials, more aware than their compatriots of the damage
being done to Italy’s international standing; and a growing number of businesspeople, dismayed by how
seriously the scandals have diverted the government’s attention from the economy and robbed it of its early
reforming zeal.
All that said, no forecaster has yet benefited from predicting the irrepressible media tycoon’s demise. Come
December 2010, his jester’s features could be grinning out from under an even thicker layer of make-up at
the government’s year-end press conference. He enjoys widespread, though diminished, popular support. The
right is beholden to his media power, which could be trained mercilessly on any prospective successor. And
the most astute of those, the former neo-fascist Gianfranco Fini, has moved so far to the centre that many on
the right view him as a traitor.
The opposition is weak and set for further trials. Before the start of the year, the
biggest centre-left party, the Democratic Party (PD), will have ditched its stopgap
leader, Dario Franceschini, and embraced a tough, capable former communist,
Pierluigi Bersani. He will be a lively challenge to Mr Berlusconi, but his election will
cause some in the PD to leave and perhaps join Pier Ferdinando Casini’s Union of
-99-
PA
No forecaster has
yet benefited
from predicting
the irrepressible