[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

Europe
Chameleon Bonaparte
Nov 13th 2009
Nicolas Sarkozy will emerge unloved, yet unrivalled
So what's your secret?
PA images
A curious paradox will reveal itself during 2010 in France. As he enters the second half of his five-year term,
President Nicolas Sarkozy will remain unpopular in the polls. His critics, and the left-wing media, will demonise
him. The slightest faux pas will be derided. Joblessness, and social tension, will rise. All will contribute to a
sense of a president under pressure. And yet Mr Sarkozy will emerge stronger than ever.
How so? The centre-right leader will put the finishing touches to a project that, for the first time under the
fifth republic, has united the political right under a single umbrella. Barring the far-right National Front, which
Mr Sarkozy has in effect crushed, this movement will reach from right-wing nationalists to Socialist defectors
from the moderate left. Within this broad church he will face not a single credible rival.
By occupying such a wide political space, and borrowing both ideas and manpower from the opposition, Mr
Sarkozy will deny his opponents breathing room. The Socialists will be marginalised by their internal rivalry.
Ever flakier, Ségolène Royal, who is not the party’s leader, will behave as if she is already its candidate for
the 2012 presidential election. Torpedoing her own party bosses, to project an outsiderish quality, Ms Royal
will establish herself as Mr Sarkozy’s foremost opponent—but will not be an immediate threat.
To curb the rise of the ecologists, Mr Sarkozy will apply his suffocation tactics to them too. His carbon tax will
come into effect, and he will press for a similar tax at Europe’s borders, prompting cries of protectionism from
free-traders. He will push the development of the electric car, and non-biodegradable plastic bags will be
banned from supermarkets from January. Four new TGV high-speed rail lines will be under construction at the
same time. The government will launch a “super bond” to retail investors, with investment in the carbon-free
economy as one of its themes.
A test of Mr Sarkozy’s strength will be elections in France’s 22 regions in March. The
Socialists, who swept the board last time, are set to lose control of several regions—
though Ms Royal is likely to hang on to hers. If Mr Sarkozy’s party can win back
even half of them, that would be a strong springboard from which to plan for 2012.
Unless François Fillon gets a big European job, Mr Sarkozy may not need to change
his prime minister: Mr Fillon’s patrician discretion complements the president’s
showmanship. If a new prime minister were needed, candidates could include
surprises, such as Christine Lagarde, the finance minister, or even Eric Besson, a
Socialist defector, as well as old-time Sarkozy chums such as Brice Hortefeux.
A test of Mr
Sarkozy’s
strength will be
elections in
France’s 22
regions in March
Although the economy will start to revive, Mr Sarkozy will not return to his one-time liberal discourse in a
-95-