[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

Spanish governor in Caracas. Mr Chávez will use every opportunity to identify his own regime with his hero,
Simón Bolívar, the great Venezuelan-born Liberator—even though the ideas of the two men differ radically.
Similar events will take place in Argentina on May 25th, in Colombia on July 20th and in Chile on September
18th. Mexico will mark its war of independence on September 16th, and weeks later it will commemorate the
centenary of the start of its revolution of 1910-17.
Potted future
Celebration may be curbed by austerity. Mexico will be looking anxiously over the border for an American
economic recovery. For Venezuela, the year is a crucial one. Mr Chávez risks losing omnipotence at a
legislative election due in December. If the opposition can unite—a big if—it stands a good chance of winning
a majority, as recession, inflation and mismanagement erode public support for the president’s “21st century
socialism”. In Chile Sebastián Piñera will try to lead the Chilean right to its first victory in a presidential
election in half a century. He will almost certainly face a tight run-off ballot in January against Eduardo Frei, a
Christian Democrat former president.
Colombia’s presidential election in May will turn on an earlier decision: whether the
Constitutional Court gives the green light for a referendum changing the constitution
to allow a president a third consecutive term —and whether Álvaro Uribe, president
since 2002, will risk looking like a Chávez-style autocrat by standing. If he is a
candidate, Mr Uribe will win, though more narrowly than in the past. If not, Juan
Manuel Santos, a former defence minister, is the best-placed of his would-be heirs.
Sergio Fajardo, an independent ex-mayor of Medellín and an engaging former maths
professor, will mount a strong challenge, especially if he can find parties to back him.
Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
Pragmatic
centrism will be
in the ascendant
as the region’s
leftist tide begins
to ebb
In Costa Rica Ottón Solís, a dissident social democrat, may come from behind to win a presidential election in
February against Laura Chinchilla, the candidate of the ruling social-democratic party of Óscar Arias, the
outgoing president.
With money scarcer, those governments that do not spend it well will find themselves subject to popular
protests. If the oil price surges again, Mr Chávez may gain new allies. Otherwise, expect his “Bolivarian”
alliance of leftist-nationalists to lose ground, in Venezuela and beyond. Indeed, 2010 may be the year in which
Mr Chávez faces a choice of either losing power or keeping it by snuffing out the last trappings of democracy
in Venezuela.
Michael Reid: Americas editor, The Economist
Michael Reid: Americas editor, The Economist
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