[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

This points to another vulnerability. The coalition Mr Obama marshalled in 2008 around the alluring but
ambiguous banner of “change” will splinter. The most ideological members of that coalition are already
dismayed by “betrayals” such as the president’s inaction on causes such as gay marriage, and by policy calls
such as the continuing detention of suspected terrorists without trial. Disappointed expectations will keep some
of them at home in the mid-term congressional elections in November. Other stay-at-homes will include many
of those first-time voters, mainly the black and the young, who in 2008 were electrified by his person rather
than his policies. Many are likely to take the view that they did enough when they sent Mr Obama to the
White House. Unexcited by the ins and outs of cap-and-trade and health-care legislation, and by an election in
which Mr Obama’s own job is not up for grabs, why should they turn out again?
Since the complaint of the left is that Mr Obama is governing from the centre, you might expect the selfdescribed
independent voters who backed Mr Obama in 2008 to stay with the Democrats in the mid-terms.
Think again. A number of independents will feel no less betrayed by Mr Obama than
the left already does. The Republican message that Mr Obama has presided over the
biggest expansion of government for decades, and that he has done nothing to rein
in the Democratic Party’s worst partisans and protectionists on Capitol Hill, will gain
traction. A good number of Americans in the middle of politics are furious at the
spectacle of Wall Street being bailed out while so many ordinary Joes are losing their
Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
A good number of
Americans in the
middle of politics
are furious
jobs, homes and pensions. Hard times in 2010 will ensure that their anger is not going to subside quickly.
Mr Obama will find no consolation on the world stage. Whatever his long-term decisions on Afghanistan and
Iraq, American forces will still be suffering casualties in both countries in 2010. In his second year it will
become increasingly clear to people at home that America risks losing its status as the world’s sole
superpower and undisputed top nation as its relative economic power wanes. This trend may be inexorable
with the rise of new powers in Asia, but that will not stop voters from blaming the fellow in the White House.
Losing his House?
Above all, the result of November’s mid-term elections will reflect the fact that even an economic crisis of
extra-ordinary proportions cannot make most Americans ditch their ingrained belief in a free-market system
and embrace bigger government. The perception that Mr Obama is tilting too far left will cost the Democrats a
host of seats. Although the Senate will remain out of the Republicans’ reach, they might take control of the
House of Representatives. No fewer than 84 of the Democrats’ seats in the House represent districts that were
won by George Bush in 2004 or Senator John McCain in 2008; they could turn Republican again.
It is worth remembering that a miserable 2010 does not mean that Mr Obama will necessarily fail to win reelection
in 2012, or that his presidency is destined to be remembered as a failure. Other presidents, including
Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, managed to bounce back from wretched second years and setbacks in the
mid-terms. But the coming year will be a trying one for America’s no-longer-so-fresh new president.
Peter David: Washington bureau chief, The Economist
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