[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

and its surrounding Nineveh province, are also dangerous. The Americans have
proposed “three-way” patrols comprising themselves, Arabs and Kurds to cool the hottest spots. If things go
violently wrong, Mr Obama, who has talked of keeping a reserve of not more than 50,000 troops in Iraq
mainly as trainers (down from 125,000 or so at the end of 2009), may briefly try to reimpose peace.
But not for long. Under a “status of forces agreement” signed by George Bush, all American troops must be
out by the end of 2011. There will be talk of the UN sending peacekeepers, but the world body will probably
still deem such an operation too dangerous.
Al-Qaeda’s shrinking Iraqi branch will carry out the occasional mass-casualty suicide attack but its pool of
recruits will continue to dry up—unless Mr Maliki, or whoever emerges as Iraq’s leader, fails to bring the
Sunni tribes and their vigilante groups, which helped America make its “surge” effective in 2007, into Iraq’s
security web and give them their due spoils of patronage. Iraqi forces and leading personalities will be the
main targets rather than the Americans. If a more harshly sectarian Shia-led government emerges, a wider
Sunni insurgency could yet be rekindled.
Oil production and the supply of electricity, medical and other services are likely to improve after years of
stagnation. If the central government can strike a deal with the Kurds, production and exports might at last
take off in a big way, giving Iraqis a long-awaited dose of prosperity.
If Mr Maliki retains power, he will seek to soften the sectarian political mood that has prevailed since the fall
of Saddam. He may also strengthen the central levers of power and tighten his grip on them, reversing the
federal trend that his Shia rivals had promoted. He may also chip away at human rights and other freedoms
(of the press, for instance). Expect talk of an Iraqi Putin emerging. Many Iraqis, after the traumatic post-
Saddam chaos, will view that as their least-bad option.
Xan Smiley: Middle East and Africa editor, The Economist
Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
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