[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

The Americas
After Lula
Nov 13th 2009
Whoever wins, Brazil should remain in capable hands after its presidential election
The squid's farewell
PA images
Latin America’s largest economy is enjoying its best moment for a long time. One of the last countries to enter
the global downturn started by the financial sector in 2007, Brazil was also one of the first to come out of it.
For the first time in its history it has found a combination of economic growth, low inflation and full democracy
—and the good fortune looks set to continue.
Much is due to Brazil’s president since 2002, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a charismatic former metal worker, with
hair so curly that he was nicknamed “squid” (lula). The presidential election in October will be the first one
that he has not contested since the country reintroduced direct elections in 1990. At the end of his second
term he is so popular that it is hard to imagine that he was once a serial loser. He will leave a hole that
nobody vying to be his successor will quite be able to fill.
The two best-placed are José Serra, the governor of São Paulo, and Dilma Rousseff, the head of the casa
civil, an office analogous to presidential chief-of-staff.
Mr Serra has a head start. His approval ratings in the country’s most populous state are high. He was a good
health minister in the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, and ran for president against Lula in 2002.
As Lula proved, losing elections is no barrier to future success in Brazil.
Ms Rousseff’s chances depend on whether Lula will be able to transfer his popularity to his anointed successor.
Much will also hang on whether her appeal is hurt by other candidates on the left, not least Marina Silva, a
senator, former minister and long-time star of the environmental movement.
The vote will split the country geographically, particularly if Mr Serra picks a running-mate who is also from
the south-east of Brazil. This would line up the poorer north and north-east against the wealthier, more
populous south and south-east. That would suit Mr Serra but would exacerbate the contrast between the two
nations within Brazil.
-33-