[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

in June and South Korea in November. The group’s virtue—its size—is also its problem. In Pittsburgh, there
were in fact 33 leaders around the table, once you included the heads of various international and regional
organisations, such as the World Bank and ASEAN.
The battle of the G-spots
Some lament that, as a result, the G20 is threatening to turn into a mini United Nations. Hence the talk of
cutting the group down to size again, with a G13: the G8 plus China, India, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico.
But any such move would offend some important G20 members, and so probably create as many headaches
as it solved. Besides, the G20 has the distinct advantage of actually existing already.
A more radical solution would be to opt for a G2 of China and America. Most of the really big international
issues—from climate change to global economic imbalances, currency management and nuclear nonproliferation—will
ultimately depend above all on agreement between the world’s two largest economies. The
institutional framework for this dialogue already exists. In 2009 the regular economic summits between China
and America were renamed as a “Strategic and Economic Dialogue”—signalling the formal broadening of the
agenda, beyond purely economic issues.
But the G2 is unlikely to become the world’s most important international forum in 2010. For different
reasons, it currently suits neither America nor China to elevate the status of the G2.
The Chinese have benefited from a relative shift in power, following the global economic crisis. But they know
that, in most respects, this is still far from being a dialogue of equals. The United States is a much richer
country than China, with a larger and more sophisticated economy and a global military reach. The Americans
have their own reasons not to want to elevate the status of the G2. American officials believe that it makes
sense economically and politically to include other major democracies, such as the European Union and Japan,
in discussions with China. EU officials are already talking hopefully of forming a G3, with China and America.
But this idea is premature.
For all these reasons, it will be the G20, rather than the G2 or G3, that wins the battle of the G-spots in
2010.
Gideon Rachman: chief foreign-affairs columnist, Financial Times
Gideon Rachman: chief foreign-affairs columnist, Financial Times
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