[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

International
Delayed explosion
Nov 13th 2009
Will 2010 be a year of social unrest?
Over the past year much of the world has experienced falling incomes and sharply rising unemployment. At the height
of the global economic crisis in early 2009 a striking warning about the possible political consequences came from
America’s director of national intelligence, Admiral Dennis Blair, in testimony before the United States Senate. He
declared that the risk of global political instability triggered by the economic crisis had become America’s “primary
near-term security concern”. The heads of the IMF and the UN, among others, also issued stark warnings about the
danger of social unrest.
So far, however, the feared spread of unrest has not occurred. Voters have not flocked to the far left or the populist
right. Most people affected by the crisis have suffered in silence.
Does this mean that all the warnings were misplaced? It’s too soon to relax. There are reasons to expect that 2010
could be a year of upheaval. The relative social peace of 2009 may have been only the quiet before the storm.
Indeed, a congruence of calamities could prove politically tempestuous: a sharp rise in
unemployment, increased poverty and inequality, weakened middle classes and high food
prices in many countries. Austerity is also on the agenda in 2010 following the extreme fiscal
relaxation of 2009.
In 2010 there will
be 60m more
unemployed
worldwide than in
2008
Historically, political reactions to economic distress have tended to come with a lag. The
same is true of labour-market developments: even once the recession ends, unemployment
continues to rise. According to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) estimates, in 2010 there will be 60m more
unemployed worldwide than in 2008. The International Labour Organisation reckons some 200m workers are at risk of
joining the ranks of people living on less than $2 a day.
Declines in incomes are not always followed by political instability. Vulnerability to unrest depends on a host of factors.
These include the degree of income inequality, the state of governance, levels of social provision, ethnic tensions,
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