[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

International
A modern guide to G-ology
Nov 13th 2009
The clubs that would rule the world
Medieval scholastics are reputed to have enjoyed debating how many angels you can fit on the head of a pin.
The equivalent debate for modern diplomats is what number you should place after the letter G.
At present, a number of groups are jostling to be the pre-eminent forum for discussions between world
leaders. The G20 ended 2009 by in effect replacing the old G8. But that is not the end of the matter. In 2010
the G20 will face a new challenger—the G2. To confuse matters further, lobbies will emerge advocating the
formation of a G13 and a G3. It would be foolish to expect the debate to be resolved definitively. But the
likeliest outcome is that the G20 summit of world leaders will further establish its position as the world’s most
important talking shop. Attempts to divert the real decisions to a G2 made up of just the United States and
China will not succeed. The G8, a largely Western grouping, will continue its rapid decline into irrelevance. And
the G13 will not get off the ground. (As for the G77—don’t even ask.)
The formation of the G20 group of world leaders is likely to be the most lasting institutional consequence of
the global financial meltdown of 2008. Long before that drama, it was a commonplace of international
diplomacy that the big institutions of international governance, such as the UN Security Council and the G8
(that is, the G7 group of rich countries plus Russia), no longer matched the realities of international power.
However, it took a global economic crisis to force change. The G20 had already been formed for finance
ministers in response to the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s. Crucially, its members included the giant
emerging economies—China, India and Brazil—and together accounted for 85% of world output. Because the
subject matter for the G20 is exclusively economic, its members can avoid tricky debates about politics.
The success of the G20 since its first summit in Washington, DC, in November 2008
has surprised many sceptics. It is true that some of the group’s initial promises—to
forswear all further acts of protectionism, for example—were broken. But at the
second G20 summit in London the assembled leaders made it clear that they could
work together, committing themselves to a global fiscal stimulus and an increase in
resources for the IMF. The summit marked a turning-point in investor and business
confidence. And at the Pittsburgh summit in September 2009 it was announced that
the G20 would replace the G8 as the main body for the discussion and co-ordination of global economic
policy; the older group will simply become a caucus within the G20.
It currently suits
neither America
nor China to
elevate the status
of the G2
Inevitably, however, the G20 also has flaws, which may become more evident at its next meetings, in Canada
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