[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

As for rewriting nuclear rules, some governments will resist using the NPT conference to strengthen the badly
weakened treaty on the ground that the nuclear powers have still not done enough. North Korea, once a
member, won’t be there this time: it has left the treaty and declared itself a nuclear power. Iran, which denies
nuclear ambitions but refuses full co-operation with inspectors, will be—working hard to block progress.
One idea is to require all countries (so far the process has been voluntary) to sign up to enhanced safeguards,
known as the Additional Protocol, to replace the more basic ones that came with the 40-year-old NPT. Another
is to demand that any country leaving the treaty hand back equipment or materials acquired while a member.
Half-life of a dream
In theory, almost everyone in the treaty except Iran (and Syria, another alleged miscreant) supports the idea
of tightening the rules. In practice, Brazil has been holding out against the Additional Protocol on the
(improbable) ground that it could put at risk commercial secrets from its uranium-enrichment programme.
Egypt says it will accept the protocol only when Israel, not an NPT member, gives up its bombs. All this looks
like letting Iran off the hook.
Fuel-making technologies in the wrong hands can be abused for bomb-making. But
plans to curb their spread will move ahead only slowly, if at all. Australia, Canada
and South Africa, all with deposits of natural uranium, are reluctant to accept limits
on their future rights to enrich it for profit. If they don’t budge, plans for an
international fuel bank of last resort, to help dissuade countries going for nuclear
Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
All this looks like
letting Iran off
the hook
power from thinking they need proliferation-prone uranium-enrichment and plutonium-making capacities too,
are likely to fail.
Even the test ban and a new treaty to cut off production of fissile material—both obvious first steps to a
nuclear-free future—will be dogged with difficulty. India, seeing China as its chief nuclear rival, will refuse to
swear off nuclear tests and will go on building up its arsenal; and Pakistan won’t sign up unless India does.
When it comes to a fissile-material ban, foot-dragging roles are reversed, with Pakistan the chief hold-out,
saving India the bother. That is because new trade arrangements under a controversial civil nuclear deal with
America will allow India to devote more of its scarce domestic uranium to its military programme. Pakistan,
with China’s help, is determined to keep up.
So there will be lots of disarmament talk in 2010. But not a whole lot will get done.
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