[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

anything more will require American money and technology. Chinese government frustration will grow if these
are not forthcoming. Talk of co-operation could give way to bickering.
In 2010 the government will formulate a new five-year economic plan to take effect in the following year.
When the Communist Party meets in the autumn to give its views (or, to be more precise, issue instructions)
on this, much attention will be focused on what it decrees for China’s environment. Officials have suggested
that carbon-intensity targets should be written into the plan. This would be a first for China. But the plan will,
as always, give priority to GDP growth.
Mr Hu does not have to worry about meeting the current plan’s targets. It called for GDP to reach 26.1 trillion
yuan ($3.8 trillion) by 2010. That level was surpassed in 2008. Another goal was to double GDP per head from
its level in 2000. This happened within the plan’s first couple of years. A revision of China’s per-head data,
however, could well be required after a national census on November 1st 2010, the country’s first in ten
years. The likelihood is that China’s population is several tens of millions bigger than officials have been
estimating.
The census operation will be supervised by Li Keqiang, a deputy prime minister who is widely expected to be
appointed the country’s next prime minister (replacing Wen Jiabao) in 2013. Vice-President Xi Jinping looks on
course to take over from Mr Hu as party chief and president. But although Mr Hu enjoyed the smoothest
succession in communist China’s history, there is no guarantee his luck will be repeated.
Mr Hu will worry about his legacy. Despite rapid economic growth in the ethnic-minority regions of Tibet and
Xinjiang, these areas have been roiled by unrest since a flare-up of rioting in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, in
2008. Security deployments and widespread arrests have maintained control, but in July 2009 far bloodier
rioting erupted in Xinjiang’s capital, Urumqi. The authorities fear that a relaxation of security measures could
end in more violence. October 2010 will mark the 60th anniversary of China’s invasion of Tibet. Mr Hu will not
be able to let down his guard.
James Miles: Beijing bureau chief, The Economist
Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.
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