[ccebook.cn]The World in 2010

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From the editor Nov 13th 2009 The good news about 2010 is that the world will emerge from recession and the post-crisis economic landscape will become clearer. Less cheerful is what that landscape will look like. The rich world, burdened by debt and high unemployment, faces a long, hard slog. Governments will confront difficult decisions on how fast to start withdrawing the huge support they provided to keep the financial system going. Voters will vent their anger when given the chance at the polls— kicking out Labour in Britain in May and perhaps even depriving Barack Obama of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in America’s mid-term elections in November. Businesses will hardly feel much better, but they can at least begin to focus on strategies for future growth, rather than tactics for short-term survival. Those strategies will place an increasing emphasis on emerging markets, many of which will power ahead. India will mark an historic transition: manufacturing will at last outweigh farming. It and other emerging giants will also make their presence felt in the G20, now the pre-eminent club for global decision-making. The presidents of three of these countries— Indonesia, Russia and South Africa—offer their views on 2010 in this edition. Then there’s China. It is identified as central to just about every global issue in the coming year, from the economy to climate change and nuclear diplomacy; it is becoming, with America, an “indispensable nation”. In 2010 not only will China once again host big, eye-catching events (after Beijing’s Olympics in 2008 it will be Shanghai’s turn, with its World Expo expected to draw 70m visitors, and Guangzhou hosts the Asian Games). It will also reach two statistical landmarks: it will overtake Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy; and it will arrive China will be central to just about every global issue in the coming year, from the economy to climate change and nuclear diplomacy Michael Pilkington at the peak of its “demographic dividend”, after which its dependency ratio of young and old to people in work will rise. Whether China, with its multiple growing pains, proves to be a relaxed power or a prickly one will be a central issue for 2010 and beyond. If China is a leitmotif, readers may also detect a second running theme—or a pervasive tension. For every article about the world’s woes (economic distress, environmental doom, nuclear threat) there is another about the prospect of astonishing progress (leaps in farm productivity, the take-off of private space travel, the power of ubiquitous technology). Sometimes, as with the outlook for the swine-flu pandemic, progress and distress compete in the same story. Which prevails will determine whether “the tens”, the decade that begins in 2010, prove to be terrible or triumphant. One triumph is assured in 2010: on July 11th the world will watch a proud team win the FIFA World Cup in South Africa. Off the football field, Qatar will be a champion: the only country expected to achieve doubledigit growth, it will also boast the largest man-made structure in centuries when it completes its Ras Laffen gas plant. At the other end of the league Somalia, plagued by poverty, piracy and civil war, wins our unwanted award as the world’s worst country. Some of the predictions in this volume are safe: we know that 2010 will be the 300th anniversary of Meissen porcelain, the 200th of Frédéric Chopin and of independence for several Latin American countries, the 100th for Girl Guides and the 50th for the laser. Others are more speculative: we suggest bicycles and white wine, among other things, will be cool, whereas MBAs won’t be. We identify thirty-somethings to watch in America and where to find twenty-somethings who want to save the planet. Right or wrong, this collection of forecasts offers a flavour of the year ahead—or, given the economic outlook and that one curiosity in 2010 will be efforts to cut bovine flatulence, perhaps a whiff of it. -1-
Daniel Franklin: editor, The World in 2010 Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved. -2-
Page 2 and 3: Search Economist.com Welcome shiyi1
Page 6 and 7: Leaders The hard slog ahead Nov 13t
Page 8 and 9: Leaders Now for the long term Nov 1
Page 10 and 11: Leaders Europe's chance Nov 13th 20
Page 12 and 13: Leaders Not so fast Nov 13th 2009 R
Page 14 and 15: Leaders Chill, China Nov 13th 2009
Page 16 and 17: Leaders Smart states Nov 13th 2009
Page 18 and 19: Leaders Wanted: green engineers Nov
Page 20 and 21: Leaders More than a number Nov 13th
Page 22 and 23: United States Mr Obama's unpromisin
Page 24 and 25: United States Square-root reversal
Page 26 and 27: United States The Fed's next battle
Page 28 and 29: much of the asylum. Voters pass, fo
Page 30 and 31: Augustus. In America, the taxation
Page 32 and 33: Ms Rhee is reviled by many of those
Page 34 and 35: United States All the news that's f
Page 36 and 37: The Americas After Lula Nov 13th 20
Page 38 and 39: The Americas Bolívar's continent N
Page 40 and 41: The Americas Canada's northern goal
Page 42 and 43: The Americas Greenland, the new bon
Page 44 and 45: The Americas Sí, se puede Nov 13th
Page 46 and 47: Asia Bring on the new generation No
Page 48 and 49: Asia Political football Nov 13th 20
Page 50 and 51: Asia The cautious leap forward Nov
Page 52 and 53: Asia Peak labour Nov 13th 2009 Chin
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Asia The dragon still roars Nov 13t
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Asia An imperfect storm Nov 13th 20
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Asia Worryingly fragile Nov 13th 20
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Asia A grim prospect Nov 13th 2009
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Then there is the symbolic Kevin Ru
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this is accompanied by rising Islam
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To some of his critics, Mr Netanyah
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doomed sooner or later to fizzle, t
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and its surrounding Nineveh provinc
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(plastic trumpets). So Africa’s m
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Somalia would be little noticed wer
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slide backwards. Global financial i
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in June and South Korea in November
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Copyright © 2009 The Economist New
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As for rewriting nuclear rules, som
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affluent countries will have reserv
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International Delayed explosion Nov
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International Where survival is at
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Europe More than a museum? Nov 13th
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Europe Europe isn't working Nov 13t
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Europe Chameleon Bonaparte Nov 13th
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Europe Beyond the crisis Nov 13th 2
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Europe The eternal leader? Nov 13th
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Europe Coolissimo Nov 13th 2009 The
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Europe Changing the colours Nov 13t
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the centre-stage of unification, wh
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price would point to stagnation, a
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too: so long as the pipeline route
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Fearful of a public backlash, the g
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unexpected leaders of economic grow
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country feels better by the time th
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But even with help from a recoverin
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interrupted recoveries, largely bec
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Britain On yer bikes Nov 13th 2009
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Britain A history lesson Nov 13th 2
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y far. But over-stretched American
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Business The plot thickens Nov 13th
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Business Can e-readers save newspap
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them an opportunity to opt out from
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Business Big SIS is watching you No
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Business Leadership in the informat
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Business Generically challenged Nov
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Business The end of the affair Nov
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Business Asia's green-tech rivals N
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Business Rethinking the car industr
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Finance In the wake of a crisis Nov
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Finance Blow, then burst Nov 13th 2
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Finance Looking for a way out Nov 1
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Asia now accounts for five of the w
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days of easy pickings for hedge fun
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means that banks will take losses o
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liquefied natural gas (LNG). So int
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Policies to support supply-side ref
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Ocean Acoustic Waveguide Remote Sen
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A company called Arcadia Bioscience
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Science The looming crisis in human
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Science The coming alternatives Nov
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Science Where have all the sunspots
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to service the space station. The p
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making running repairs. The shuttle
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