Making TransJakarta a World Class BRT System - ITDP | Institute for ...

If both the Blue and Green Lines are built, they could raise some Rp.160 million per day
in fare revenue and roughly Rp. 48 billion annually. (This is $5.3 million annually.)
Raising the fare will not help to increase revenues because ridership falls.
The low ridership levels result from the fact that very few people’s trips would be easily
served by this particular routing. Most people would have to switch from buses or other
modes, and lack of a feeder bus system, the lack of compared to those projected by
SITRAMP are mainly due to the false expansion factors used in the SITRAMP model.
This 25.7km system would cost a minimum $925 million but could cost $1.4 billion or
more (the cost of the Kuala Lumpur monorail). Of this, only some $60 - $70 million
would be recovered from passenger fares in the first ten years. Therefore, DKI Jakarta
needs to be prepared to pay some $1 billion in capital investments, and provide ongoing
operating subsidies for this to be viable.
While we have not observed the suitability of the corridors for BRT, if BRT were
implemented on the same corridors, we project that it would capture some 75,000 daily
passengers. The main difference in demand is due to the lower fare and better
connectivity with the rest of the TransJakarta BRT system. The cost would be less than
$50 million to construct, and would generate some $6 .25 million in annual revenue,
more than enough to cover the operating costs and the cost of bus procurement.
Initial demand estimates for the monorail used SITRAMP, a model developed by JICA.
Using SITRAMP, the demand on the proposed monorail would be 98,741 daily riders for
both lines. Unfortunately, due to gaps in the network, lack of data on paratransit
vehicles, limited and outdated traffic counts at relevant locations, and exaggerated
expansion factors, the SITRAMP data was yielding model results that diverge widely
from our own observed traffic counts. We therefore had to recreate the traffic model,
also using EMME/2 and also in cooperation with UI CTS. Over 60,000 on-board origin
destination surveys were conducted with transit passengers. Calibration of the entire
network was also done with observed data. The control points for observed volumes of
passengers correspond to the 60 bi-directional sections of the OD survey, which were
used to expand the OD. In addition, 12 bidirectional points were added to refine the
adjustment. The results of this model calibration were to give us predicted values much
closer to observed values.
Monorail Project
The existing monorail project proposal includes two lines, the Blue Line from Tebet to
Roxi, and a circular Green Line.
Final Recommendations for TransJakarta, p. 69