Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong>
on climate data from four GCMs, suggest similar
declining trends in rice and maize yields over time
with different magnitudes depending on climate
conditions, soil types and crop practice. Maize yields,
for example, could drop from 5 percent in Nakhon
Sawan province to 44 percent in Nakhon Ratchasima
province. For rice, yields could drop by 57 percent in
Roiet province, but increase by 25 percent in Surin
(MRC, 2009). In the study area, in Ubonratchathani
province, the simulation shows trend of increase
in yield of rice productivity under future climate
condition. The increase in productivity yield could
be as high as 10-15% in some areas (Snidvongs,
2006). The four climate models also demonstrated
that climate change could increase temperature in
areas, during the flowering period of crops, by 1
to 7°C. This will reduce flowering and harvesting
periods as well as crop yields in general (MRC,
2009). Rainfall variability also reduces rice, corn and
sugar productions. If monsoon events are too strong,
inundations can cause plant diseases and insect
infestation.
Livestock production in Thailand is based on grazing
and farming systems; both dependent on climate
conditions such as precipitation and temperature,
important for natural pasture and leftover’s from
agriculture. Droughts and floods can cause food
scarcity and new disease outbreak, affecting the
production, and therefore, the farmers who has lack
understanding in the prospects of climate change
(Boonprakrob and Hattirat, 2006).
Because of sea level rise, aquaculture, which is one
of the most important sources of foreign exchange
earnings of Thailand will be very affected. Large
portions of the areas under aquaculture production
are mangrove and mudflats, which areas are
vulnerable to inundation.
Vulnerability and Adaptation in the
Agricultural and Food Sector
In general, the vulnerability of agriculture to climate
change varies according to crops and location
characteristics, in addition to the climate conditions;
also depends on the ability of farmers to diversify
their crops as well (OEPP, 2000). Also, there are
different levels of concern about climate change
issues according to the vulnerability on agriculture
and food security, as the AIACC report establishes.
Thailand appears in the medium and low level of
concern. The medium outcomes of concern are the
increase of rural poverty rates, the decrease and
more variable net farm incomes for many rural
households, failures of small farms and accelerated
rural-to-urban migration. The main climate
drivers in this level are: (i) region-wide increase in
frequency of climate extremes that cause losses of
crops, livestock and income, and (ii) changes in the
average climate or significant shifts in rainy season
that stress traditionally grown crops and available
substitutes. Also, other drivers are listed are declining
output prices, rising input prices, lack of income
diversification of rural households, lack of access to
credit by small farmers, poor rural infrastructure and
lack of social safety nets. The outcomes of concern
that appear in the low level are also the decrease
and more variable net farm incomes for some
rural households but also the decreased and more
variable quality of crop and livestock output and the
temporary migrations as strategy to obtain off-farm
incomes. More severe effects can be kept in check by:
robust and diversified rural development, equitable
access to resources (e.g. improved seed varieties)
adequate household savings, maintenance of social
safety nets, political stability, well maintained rural
infrastructure and services and access to credit and
insurance (Leary et al., 2007).
As has been said in the impacts, farmers of rain-fed
rice in Thailand are exposed to variations in rice
harvests and other impacts from seasonal flooding,
shifts in the dates of beginning and end of the rainy
season, and variations in rainfall amounts. Those
farm household with small land and small subsistence
production produce low volumes of rice and incomes
from rice, which sustain the household on a year-toyear
basis. Therefore, they have limited capacity to
cope with losses during the crop season. Also they
have short chance to implement other activities to
diversify their income sources. The high risk for
farm households in Thailand to climate shocks is
the higher food costs relative to farm income, lack
of income diversification, little savings in the form
of financial assets, livestock or food stores, and high
debt relative to income (Leary et al., 2007).
The MRC report for Thailand mentions some
adaptation strategies that have been going on as
The Royal Projects on agriculture to conduct studies,
research and experimentation of plant and animal
species suitable for the nature of the local areas.
The Royal Projects plan to plant vetiver grass for
topsoil preservation, the projects by the Ministry
of Agriculture to promote agricultural product and
market improvements, the projects by the Ministry
of Agriculture to build capacity for local agricultural
communities, the projects by the Ministry of
Agriculture to research drought‐resistant plant and
animal species, and the projects by the Ministry of
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