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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> Irrigation Department also established another ITC at Mandalay, where pre-service and in-service are given. The department also set up a Mechanical Training Centre (MTC) in Yangon, whereby the basic courses on operation, maintenance and repairs of heavy machinery as well as GPS and Remote Sensing are conducted. Some senior engineers also attend the Disasters Management Training given by the Ministry of Health. Apart from the engineers, the Irrigation Department also provides special training courses to field staffs, such as canal and drainage inspectors from state and division, and also to local people who take a coordinating role during the flood season to build their capacity on flood fighting. In addition to the capacity development, the awareness and knowledge building has been initiated, including creation of pamphlet emphasizing flood prevention and guidance on reporting when boils, slips and subside are found (NAHRIM, unknown). Gaps Identified in Programmes and Studies While traditional practices have remained to mitigate flood risks caused by climate change, new challenges appear and evolve as the country’s land development and as commercialisation continue along the Ayeyarwaddy delta. In 1929, when few people lived and no ongoing development work was implemented in the east bank of the river, government constructed embankments for keeping the height lower for emergency spill of flood to save the west bank protected area (NAHRIM, unknown). Since 1988, however, the area of the east bank has been developed with high way and railway line extended and the private sectors involved. Now with low land rice cultivation field, fish ponds, gas field, it is commercially important, and receives high concern on safety of the east bank. However, flood management is not as simple as before any more. New challenge would be institutional cooperation among local governments who cover their administrative responsibility along the delta. The east bank is administered by Yangon Division and Bago Division and the west bank is by Ayeyarwaddy Division. Continuous reporting on flood levels among the Divisions and the relevant ministries need be carried out (NAHRIM, unknown). Recent projects in the Water Sector The Water, Research and Training Centre (WRTC) presented a research proposal on flood risk reduction at the M-Power 2009, Annual Meeting of the Network Partners in February, 2009 (Khin Thein Htwe, 2009). The study focuses on the cyclone Nargis affected areas in the Ayeyarwady Delta with the first pilot study in the Pyapon Township. The objectives of the study are to a) assess the flood risk awareness of the community; b) evaluate the preparedness of the community before the floods; c) examine the response of the community during the floods; d) assess the capacity of the community in rehabilitating the floods; and e) formulate policy recommendation. Agriculture and Food Security Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied NAHRIM documents the impacts of one flood event that occurred in 1991 on the agricultural sector in Myanmar with the figures of affected land, drought animals and people. Among the agricultural products, rice accounts for 60% of the country’s total cultivated area and 97% of total food grain production. Matthews et al. (1997) studies the climate change impacts on rice production in Asian countries including Myanmar and evaluates adaptation options. They used two models of rice growth, ORYZA1 and SIMRIW, which were calibrated for the indica variety IR64 for all sites in Myanmar. Historical daily weather data containing measurements of solar radiation and temperature were employed as the baseline for input into the crop models. Potential rice yields were projected under 15 different scenarios of changed climate, including ‘fixed-increment’ changes in COz only, and also under scenarios predicted for a doubled- CO2 climate by three GCMs, namely, General Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) model and United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model. Both the ORYZAl and SIMRIW models were also applied together with the same input data files to evaluate the effect of selecting more tolerant genotypes of rice under three GCM scenarios. Also, NAHRIM demonstrates potential risks of climatic change on food security in the central dry zone, whereby the annual rainfall is already low. It implies the importance of considering the climate change impacts on the area of the Ayayarwaddy River. Impacts on the Agricultural and Food Sector 130
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Myanmar is considered as an agriculture-based country with the agriculture sector’s contribution to the GDP of 40.9% in 2008. The country being prone to natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones, potential impacts from the natural disaster in the agricultural sector can be devastating. In 1991, for example, the breach of Hteinngu embankment on the Ngawun River, a branch of the Ayayarwaddy River affected 2.8 million acres of paddy land, 167,520 acres under other crops, 67,306 houses, 74,674 draught animals, 326,926 people from 269 villages, and 8 townships (NAHRIM, unknown). The study of Matthews et al. (1997) demonstrates the overall effect projected by both crop models of changes in temperature and CO2 levels on potential yields, averaged across all sites, seasons and years. It is predicted that all CO2 levels, an increase in temperature would cause a decline in yields, and that at all temperature increments, an increase in CO2 would increase yield. The country-specific data projects that the estimated changes in total rice production under two crop models and three GCM scenarios ranges between -13% to 21% (IRRI, 1993 cited in Matthews et al., 1997). Furthermore, the total rice production in Myanmar is estimated to increase with a range of 28% to 32% given varietal adaptation on rice production. This results show that the use of more temperature-tolerant genotypes of rice could offset the negative effect of increased temperatures on yields (Matthews et al., 1997). Food security is expected to become more unstable and unsustainable in the Central Dry Zone of the Ayayarwaddy River owing to the projected reduction of annual rainfall and the number of rainfall days. The region has climatic attributes of an extreme dry and seasonal climate. The farmers hardly receive enough rain to grow dry crops, leading them to rely on the protein from fishes that are caught in the Ayayarwaddy river (NAHRIM, unknown). The reduced rainfall may change ecological system inside the river, posing a risk in their livelihood sources. Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Agricultural and Food Sector Rice is the single most important crop, accounting for 60% of the country’s total cultivated area and 97% of total food grain production (IRRI, unknown). Given this fact, the potential option on creation of new rice variety identified by Matthews et al. (1997) can be one of adaptation strategies. The scientists of Myanmar and IRRI put this option into a practice. They released fifty-two modern rice varieties between 1966 and 1997, allowing the country to increase national production to 14 million tons in 1987 to 19 million tons in 1996 (IRRI, unknown). At the governmental level, neither NAPA nor National Communication has been produced yet to address the details on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. However, the country recognises significant effects of climate change on the agricultural sector particularly in the dry zone, as noted in the speech of Maj. Gen. U Htay Oo, Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation of Myanmar (UNESCAP, 2009). “To mitigate such pressure we are implementing short-term and longer term measures, such as promoting access to irrigation water to increase productivity, and developing resource-based as well as knowledgebased sustainable agriculture and livelihoods built on existing infrastructures” (ibid). Due to the limited access to the governmental documents, no further information of the short-term and longer term measures are provided in this report. Socio-Economic Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied There has been little research on socio-economic aspects of climate change effects on the water and agricultural sectors in the Union of Myanmar. Nonetheless, UNDP (2007) conducted a national level assessment on disaster risks and adaptive capacity in the context of climate change, particularly economic and mortality risks from cyclones and storms, drought and flood. Data on baseline climate risks and GIS datasets describing the spatial extent and relative intensity of mortality and economic risks are employed from the study by Dilley et al. and the Columbia University Center for Hazards and Risk Research’s Hotspot website respectively. Spatial data are demonstrated in a 2.5’ x 2.5’ global grid, which presents relative risks for various hazards, incorporating physical hazard intensity, historical loss rates and population/GDP density. The level of the adaptive capacity is classified into four categories (Higher, Moderate, Low, Very Low) based on the index of adaptive capacity developed by Malone and Brenkert, for which an indicator model integrating proxies for economic, human and environmental capacity is used. Data on climate change projection is applied from the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, and climate change risks were assessed in terms of the likely impact of climate change on existing hazards (increasing or decreasing stress). NAHRIM depicts a case of social conflict over the islands in the Ayeyarwaddy River that were formed as a result of the changed water flow after flooding. 131
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
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Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
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