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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> Table_13 Overview on natural disasters in Cambodia from 1980 to 2009 Water Sector Top 5 Natural Disasters in Cambodia for the period 1980-2009 Type of natural disaster Date/year Drought Jun 1994 5,000,000 Flood Jul 2000 3,448,053 Flood Aug 2001 1,669,182 Flood Aug 2002 1,470,000 Flood Sep 1996 1,300,000 Total Natural Disasters in Cambodia for the period 1980-2009 Type of natural disaster Total no of events No of people affected Storm 2 34,300 10 dry seasons (-54 to +35%) (Mac Sweeney et al., 2008 cited in Roth, 2009). Another research anticipates greater temperature rise by about 2.3 to 2.8°C (Lacombe, 2009 cited in Roth, 2009). It also projects a reduction in total rainy days and a decrease in dry season rainfall, interpreting it as a wetter rainy season with increase in intense rainfall events and resulting flood hazards. This study further predicts shifting of the average onset and end of the rainy season by about two days every 10 years. The projection focused on the sub-basins of the Mekong River Basin shows that annual precipitation along the Tônlé Sap catchment areas is most likely to increase in a range of 200-300 mm, leading to the a decline of the eastern Kratie catchments (Eastham et al., 2008 cited in Roth, 2009). Although this trend is expected to occur in wet seasons, a small median decrease- about -10 to -14 mm- in dry season rainfall is projected in 2030. The lower Mekong, including the whole area of Cambodia, temperature is predicted to increase by 0.7°C to 0.8°C in 2030 compared to the 1951-2000 baselines. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION No of people affected Damage 000 US$ Drought 5 6,550,000 138,000 Flood 13 9,533,614 328,100 Epidemic 9 417,938 - Source: EM-DAT (2009): The OFDA /CRED; International Disaster Database; www.emdat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain – Brussels, – Belgium. Created on: Dec-23- 2009. - Data version: v12.07 108 Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied Most of the assessments of climate change projections employed in this report rely on Global Circulation Model (GCM). Eastham et al. (2008) selected 11 GCMs to build the year 2030’s scenarios of temperature and precipitation for the IPCC A1B scenario. The potential impacts of sea level rise in the coastal areas were conducted through Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. The methodologies for assessing provincial vulnerability to flood and drought are not indicated in the referred study. The Water and Development Research Group of Helsinki University of Technology (TKK) and the Southeast Asia START Regional Center (SEA START RC) analyses the hydrological impacts of climate change as well as related adaptation strategies in the Tônlé Sap area of Cambodia (2009). The hydrological impacts of climate change were projected for the period between 2010 and 2049 based on two main phenomena: 1) changed basin hydrology due to climate changeinduced changes in temperature and rainfall, and 2) sea level rise. For this study, high resolution future climate projection data was simulated for the 21st Century through the PRECIS regional climate model that employed as input dataset from ECHAM4 Global Circulation Model under two different climate scenarios (A2 and B2), and downscaled it for the Mekong Region. The National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) and the Initial National Communication (INC) indicate the Level of vulnerability to flood and drought by province and recommended adaptation strategies. The local-level autonomous and planned adaptation practices are also touched upon. Impacts on the Water Sector Many researchers see increase in frequency and severity of flooding as a primary impact of climate
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Figure 37: Percentage of people affected due to top 5 natural disasters 1980-2009 Flood 61% Figure 38: Percentage of people affected due to total natural disasters 1980-2009 Storm 0% Flood 58% Epidemic 2% Drought 39% Figure 39: Percentage of damage (US$) due to total natural disasters 1980-2009 Flood 98% Epidemic 0% Storm 0% Drought 4% variability on water resources in Cambodia (Hoanh et al., 2003, Snidvongs et al., 2003, Ruosteenoha et al., 2003, Eastham et al., 2008 cited in Roth, 2009). Meanwhile, increased drought-related events including wet season drought spells are seen to be highly expected (Roth, 2009). Although a change in frequency of wet season drought is uncertain, drought in dry season is anticipated. Eastham et al. (2008) indicates potential impacts of climate change at the year 2030 on five areas within catchments of the Mekong Basin in Cambodia: Se San (north-east), Kratie (central), Tônlé Sap (central), Phnom Penh (south-eastern) and Border (southern) (Roth, 2009). According to the study, increase in flooding is projected in 2030 in all the regions, though the level of increase varies. In the Kratie region, for example, frequency of extreme floods will increase from 5% to 76% annual probability, and peak flows, flood duration and flooded area are also predicted to increase. The area of the Tônlé Sap Lake will be more minimised. In Phnom Penh and Border, the flooded area is expected to increase. The study of TKK and SEA START RC (2009) inspects that the impacts of changing climate in Cambodia are most likely to emerge through changes in the flows of the Mekong River, altering the region’s unique but important flood pulse system and the resulting high aquatic productivity of the lake-floodplain system. Most of the simulated climate scenarios show similar results concerning hydrological impacts: the future flood pulse in the Tônlé Sap and the Cambodian floodplains is projected to be wetter with higher water levels, extended flooded area and longer flood duration. Also, the average water level during the dry season is expected to increase (TKK and SEA START RC, 2009). In addition to flooding, drought is also expected to occur. A case study of Kyoto University points out that the local communities in Svay Rieng province have the capacity to investigate the long-term changes in the drought-related conditions in their area and their causes such as the decline in rainfall, steep increase in ambient temperatures and decline in biodiversity (MRC, 2009d). The abovementioned increase in flood and drought events will further have implications for the groundwater resources. Larger wet season waterflows and floods and possibly higher dry season water-flows may lead to greater recharge to aquifers and higher aquifer water levels, thus resulting in potentially greater water resource for use (Eastham 109
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
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Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
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Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
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12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
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