Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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Table_2
Overview on natural disasters in Lao PDR:
1980-2009
Top 5 Natural Disasters in Lao PDR: 1980-2009
Type of natural
disaster
Date/year
Storm Aug 1995 1,000,000
Drought Dec 1988 730,000
Flood Aug 2001 453,000
Flood Sept 2000 450,000
Flood Aug 1996 420,000
Total Natural Disasters in Lao PDR:1980-2009
Type of
natural
disaster
Total no of
events
No of
people
affected
No of people
affected
Damage
000 US$
Storm 5 1,462,312 305,951
Water Sector
The Mekong River is one of the
world’s largest rivers, measuring
about 4,900 km. The Mekong River
flows through China and marks the
border between Myanmar and Lao
PDR, before its runs through Lao
PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Viet
Nam to the South China Sea. The
Mekong River is of high relevance
for Lao PDR, about 20% of the
country’s total land area being
floodplains along the Mekong River
and 50% of the Lao population
living in these plain areas (Lao
PDR, 2009a). Thus, it is essential to
assess the implications of climate
change on precipitation patterns
and associated effects on the
Mekong River and its tributaries.
Drought 4 750,000 1,000
Flood 12 2,792,740 22,828
Source: EM-DAT (2009): The OFDA /CRED; International Disaster Database; www.emdat.net
- Université Catholique de Louvain – Brussels, – Belgium.
17-24% over the course of this century, which will
substantially increase flooding risks in the wet season
and water scarcity in the dry season. The regional
climate change scenario projects that hot periods
with temperature higher than 33 °C will increase and
cooler days with a temperature lower than 15 °C be
reduced by 2-3 weeks a year (Snidvongs 2006) (see
Figure 4).
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY
AND ADAPTATION
This section focuses on reviews from existing
studies and programs on adaptation issues in the
three identified sectors, water, agriculture and food
security, and socio-economic aspects. The section
on further analyzes the methods used - a) study
findings on the impact of climate change; b) the
status of vulnerability and adaptation to climate
change; c) identified gaps and d) a review on newly
launched sector-specific projects to report about ongoing
policy and response related to climate change
adaptation activities.
Range of Studies
Reviewed and Methods
Applied
A range of studies and applied
methods were reviewed for
analyzing the Lao PDR’s water
situation in view of climate change.
Snidvongs (2006) from the South East Asia Global
Change System for Analysis Research and Training
(SEA START) Regional Centre has presented a
number of methods and models in its study on
extreme hydrological events and changes in water
resources in Southeast Asia, including Lao PDR. To
study climate change, a regional climate scenario was
simulated with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric
Model (CCAM). This has been taking place at the
level of the Lower Mekong River Basin, since
downscaling had be proven to produce inaccurate
results for local levels (Snidvongs, 2006). The CCAM
has been specifically developed by the Australia’s
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO) Division of Atmospheric
Research in Australia for the Australasian region
(Lao PDR, 2009a). Recently, PRECIS 1 which is
dynamically downscaling outputs from the coarser
level ECHAM4 model to a resolution of 0.2° x 0.2°
– has been calibrated for Southeast Asia by the
1 PRECIS: PRECIS (pronounced as in the French précis - “PRAY-sea”) is based on the
Hadley Centre’s regional climate modelling system. PRECIS was developed in order
to help generate high-resolution climate change information for as many regions
of the world as possible. The intention is to make PRECIS freely available to groups
of developing countries in order that they may develop climate change scenarios
at national centres of excellence, simultaneously building capacity and drawing
on local climatological expertise. These scenarios were and can be used in impact,
vulnerability and adaptation studies, and to aid in the preparation of National
Communications.
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