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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> about 11% (41%), the agricultural extent by 7% (24%), and wetlands by 29% (87%). Inundation and saline water intrusion due to the projected sea level rise pose threats to the agricultural production, which in turn endangers agricultural exports such as rice, of which Viet Nam is the second largest exporter in the world. Climate change impacts are also likely to occur on the fishery and aquaculture sectors’ incomes, since the numbers of sub-tropical fish of high commercial value is expected to decrease. Furthermore, Viet Nam’s economic sea production capacity is estimated to be reduced by at least one third due to degenerated coral reefs and decreased plankton, resulting in reduced fish masses. Also, aquaculture farms will be impacted due to the need of relocations as a response to seawater level rise (Dasgupta et al., 2007). Natural disasters particularly affect the coastal zones. Upland areas are affected by flash floods such as heavy rainfalls associated with typhoons. River floods, on the one hand increase soil fertility and bring wild fish stocks, but they also devastate infrastructure and cause important losses in crop yields (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Due to a rise in temperatures, higher typhoon activity and intensity of storms is expected in northern Viet Nam, with mainly the coastal zones suffering more intense typhoons and having infrastructure, agricultural production, and people’s livelihood threatened (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Today, it is estimated that up to 80 to 90% of Viet Nam’s population is affected by typhoons (Socialist Republic of Viet Nam, 2007). In the years, 1980 - 2009, storm affected a total of 73 events, more than 41 million people and damages of more than US$4 billion (see Table 4). Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in the Socio-Economic Sector Vulnerability Inequality between the growth poles of Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi, on the one hand, and the remote areas, on the other hand, is increasing, which may significantly reduce Viet Nam’s long term capacity to collectively respond to climate related vulnerabilities: In 2004, the poverty rate was of 5% in the region of Ho Chi Minh City, whereas it amounted to about 26% in the central coast region that is typhoon and drought prone (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). The country-wide rural poverty rate was 25% in 2004, whereas the urban poverty rate was as low as 4% (VASS, 2007). Besides poverty being a mainly rural phenomenon, also regional disparity can be observed: The three regions northern mountains, north central coast and central highlands are together home to 57% of the country’s poor people. All three regions have a poverty rate that is higher than 30% (VASS, 2007). Rural poor are considered those who face the most immediate challenges to cope with and adapt to climate change impacts since their incomes and food security heavily depend on agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Furthermore, the poor’s vulnerability to drought, floods or typhoons is increasing since `safety nets´ existing under centrally planned economic conditions have been removed. The reason for that is that since 1986 – the start of the so-called renovation process –, Viet Nam is undergoing the transformation from a centrally planned, command economy to a marketbased economy. As a consequence, the state is losing its central role in collective security. Poor households lack the capacity to individually cope with disaster risks and have seen an increasing vulnerability to shocks such as the curtailment of access to common property resources. Mangroves, as an example, have been disappearing as a consequence of the increasing privatization of coastal lands. Mangroves, at the same time, are especially vital for aquaculture, sustaining the poor’s food and livelihood, as well as to protect the coastal zone from storm surge. Furthermore, the poor’s vulnerability to climate change has been increased due to the development of commercial aquaculture that is restricting the access of the poor to the resources (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). The Ninh Thuan province is the one of the poorest provinces in the south central coast and is the one most affected by drought, typhoons and floods (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007; Oxfam in Viet Nam, 2007). Recent research has shown that rainfall variability is increasing in this region and that women, old people and children are most at risk due to malnourishment and extreme heat. The increasing human demand on environmental services is further exacerbating climate change impacts. Examples include substantial groundwater extraction for increased agricultural production such as of maize, deforestation, and an increase in aqua-cultural production (Oxfam in Viet Nam, 2007). Another threat on land and water resources in the Ninh Thuan region comes from projects of national interest such as the long term plan to develop a nuclear power plant (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Experience shows that children are especially vulnerable to natural disasters: The majority of the 42
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change almost 500 people killed in the devastating floods in 2000 and 2001 were children (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). As a lesson learned between the two disasters, a measure undertaken for reducing child fatalities was to build new schools that were flood proof. The problem continued, however, since many of the poorest children were not attending the school during the flood period, since they had to work in fishing and agriculture and thus still resulted to be highly vulnerable. Already after the flood in 2000, day time child care with women volunteers were established and aid organizations distributed boats for means of transports and for fishing. After the 2001 flood, however, such response programs were developed with a focus on the poor people (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). As a consequence of the floods in 2000 and 2001, the Government also launched a program of safe settlement areas, including the home relocation above flood levels, in order to being able to pass on evacuations, according to the policy slogan `living with the floods´ (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Besides children, also women have been considered to be especially vulnerable to natural disasters. According to Oxfam (2008), women are especially hit by natural disasters since they often cannot swim and have limited opportunities for employment away from home in the case of threatened livelihood due to destroyed crops. However, women have been shown to be very effective in the mobilization of local involvement and implementation of communitylevel responses. The Oxfam-study also shows that local level disaster risk management programs, such as implemented in Quang Tri, are able to significantly reduce vulnerability to flooding. A recommendation drawn from that is that community-based planning should be used to scale up to provincial and national responses, drawing on people’s personal experiences at perceptions at local level (Oxfam, 2008). While the cyclone intensity shows the tendency to be increasing over time, not only the vulnerability of rural communities but also of urban areas has increased (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Families that improved their housing through own efforts run the risk of housing loss and damaging since they do not apply the rules of a storm resistant construction. Also, the urban houses tend to have very flat roofs that show a high risk of damage (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Adaptation For over 1000 years, Viet Nam has been developing an extensive system of dykes for the physical protection from typhoons and sea level rise (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Today, the dyke system includes 5,000 km of river and 3,000 km of sea dykes. Building and maintenance of the dykes used to be done through collective mobilizations of household labor. Nowadays, the collective labour has been replaced by a tax and hired labor, since betteroff households were not willing or able to bear the lost income due to the spent days of labor. There is the perception that sea defense infrastructure overall could be improved due to increased wealth and infrastructure development in past years, at least for the better-off households (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Besides dykes, another important and highly effective measure of protecting the coastal zone from storm surges is coastal mangrove plantation. Coastal communities with the support of NGOs and international donors have undertaken successful projects of mangrove restoration (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). As a response to the increased vulnerability of housing damages to storm, an initiative supported by the European Commission Development Workshop promotes the application of ten principles for achieving storm resistance in new and existing housing in Central Viet Nam. The principles include for instance to build the house with a simple shape, to choose a location without full wind or flood force, and to construct the roof in an angle of 30° - 45°C (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). Since vulnerability to climate change is closely linked to poverty, crucial long-term adaptation measures are considered necessary to reduce poverty, such as the diversification of incomes, respect of common property rights, and promotion of collective security (Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, 2007). In an approach of systematic integration and mainstreaming, risk management, poverty alleviation and sustainable development need to be considered in combination and across all the development sectors in view of planning for climate change (Oxfam in Viet Nam, 2007). Besides, a key response to climate related disaster risks is Viet Nam’s development of disaster early warning systems. Viet Nam has been supported by UNDP in improving early warning, collecting and reporting damage and hydrometeorological data, and providing more readily and widely available information. Today, the government is undertaking efforts to upgrade the disaster early warning 43
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