Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION This section focuses on adaptation issues in the Philippines in the three identified sectors -water resources, agriculture and food security, and the socio-economic aspects. This chapter includes reviews of the existing studies and programs on the three identified sectors and analyzes the methods used. Water Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied The possible impacts of accelerated sea level rise (ASLR), vulnerability and adaptive responses to threats in the context of the Manila Bay coastal were assessed. The methodology applied for this study was ‘Common Methodology’ of the Coastal Zone Management of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1990 cited in Perez et al. 1999). This methodology is composed of seven steps: (1) delineating the study area and specification of ASLR scenarios; (2) inventorying the study area characteristics; (3) identifying relevant development factors; (4) assessing physical changes and natural system responses; (5) formulating response strategies and assessments of their costs and effects; (6) assessing the vulnerability profile and interpretation of results; and (7) identifying needs and a plan of action (Perez et al. 1999). Vulnerability of water resource in the Angat and Lanao reservoirs and identified possible coping measures were assessed by Jose A.M. and Cruz N.A. (1999). Three general circulation models (GCMs), namely, the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM), the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model, were selected to identify future values of rainfall and precipitation under a double CO2 scenario. Beside the GCMs, climate change scenarios were projected through the use of incremental changes in temperature and precipitation that could capture a wide range of climatic variability. Furthermore, a hydrological model, WatBal, was employed to investigate the rainfall-runoff relationship. The two main modeling components equipped in WatBal were the water balance and the calculation of potential evapotranspiration. Lasco (2006) studied the impacts of climate variability on climate conditions such as floods, drought and streamflow, their implication of water demand and supply, the degree of vulnerability and adaptation measures to cope with the impacts of climate change on water resources. The geographical areas focused on Pantabangan-Carranglan Watershed (PCW). The impacts were described using available records of observed climatology and hydrology. To characterize future climate impacts, downscaling of regional results of GCMs were undertaken. The SEA- BASIN model was used to predict the future changes in streamflow resulting from climate variability and land use and land cover. Various research techniques such as focus group discussions, secondary data gathering, key informant interview, and direct field observations were employed for collecting the data for the assessment of impacts. The World Bank’s study on natural disaster risk management reflects the geographical areas vulnerable to water related hazards (World Bank, 2005, cited in RMSI, 2007). The study identified the vulnerable regions in the Philippines, based on frequency of floods, persons and property damages. Impacts on the Water Sector The impact analysis of the Manila Bay demonstrated that most areas along the coast Bay—specifically, Cavite City, Noveleta, Kawit, Imus and Bacoor in the province of Cavite, some parts of Las Pinas and Parañaque, Malabon, Navotas in Metro Manila, and parts of Bulacan such as Hagonoy and Malolos— would succumb to a 1m sea level rise (Perez et al. 1999). It also pointed out that the areas that were projected to be inundated by 0.3 m sea level rise had already been faced by flooding during high tides (ibid). Even at the areas which may survive from the accelerated sea level rise, frequency and severity of storm surges are anticipated to increase (ibid). These physical changes may cause various ecological as well as socio-economic negative consequences. The natural ecosystem in the coastal areas has already faced degraded state of corals, fish habitats and mangroves due to certain human activities. If accelerated sea level rise occurs, these weakened ecosystems may not respond to the warmer temperature and reduced light. Warmer water causes bleaching of the corals. The salinity of water affects the growth of mangroves. The changes in sediments and salinity may decline wetlands and freshwater swamps. In addition to ecological effects, socio-economic impacts of climate change are anticipated. Saltwater intrusion into coastal soils may decline agricultural productivity and water 56
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change quality, in return contributing to human health damages. A study of changes in annual precipitation, temperature and runoff for Angat water reservoir demonstrated two opposite impacts: that the GFDL model projects greater frequency of flooding in future, while the CCCM model anticipates decreased runoff because of frequent drought episodes, implying potential drop of water availability (Jose and Cruz 1999). Furthermore, the projected water demand and supply for the Angat reservoir in the year 2050 indicates that the supply would not be sufficient to meet future demand. Meanwhile, in the case of Lake Lanao, the same study also showed similar projections. Both, decrease and increase in runoff were anticipated depending on the selected models. Apart from the climate change scenario projected from GCMs, the incremental climate change scenarios indicate that runoff is more sensitive to variations in precipitation as compared with variations in temperature in both reservoirs. The study of the PCW demonstrated that in 2080, rainfall is projected to increase by as much as 12.7 % and temperature to increase by more than 5% of the average observed values between 1960 and 1990 (Lasco, 2006). This change in climate could translate to about 17% increase in wet season streamflow and a decrease of around 35% in dry season streamflow of the PCW. The increase in streamflow could lead to higher likelihood of floods in the service areas of Upper Pampanga River Integrated Irrigation System than it is at present. Likewise, the projected decrease in streamflow of the PCW during the dry season will likely increase the incidence of water shortage which could be aggravated by the increased water demand due to the increase in temperature. The projected changes in climate and the associated changes in streamflow patterns of the PCW will likely have more serious impacts on the lowland rice farmers. There is a tendency whereby the number of months when water shortage is of high concern could increase. This indicates the imminent risks of water shortage to the lowland farmers such as a sudden drop of rice harvest (Lasco, 2006). In addition, the increased events of monsoon rain cause excessive siltation in the PCW reservoir. This causes the decreased capacity of the reservoir to store enough water for hydroelectric power generation (Lasco, 2006). The gross power generated in the reservoir dropped to almost zero in the late 90’s from a maximum of more than 300,000 Mwh in the early 80’s. Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Water Sector Vulnerability The World Bank’s Natural Disaster Risk Management study identified that the regions Luzon, Manila, Panay, Negros and Mindanao would be highly vulnerable to flashfloods and suffer from damages to persons and property (World Bank, 2005, cited in RMSI, 2007). Most of the mentioned regions are affected by flashfloods more than once in a year. In addition, most vulnerable areas identified in the study of PCW are those municipalities that lie at the tail of the service area. Due to the topographical and topological limitations, they suffer most from droughts, water shortage and floods, especially during dry season (Lasco, 2006). Adaptation The first National Communication (1999) and Jose and Cruz (1999) identifies several adaptation options in the water resources based on supply and demand. The first National Communication applied a set of criteria focusing on cost-effectiveness and feasibility. The supply adaptation measures included construction of new infrastructures; modification of existing physical infrastructure(s); and alternative management of the existing water supply systems. The demand Adaptation measures recommended were conservation and improved efficiency and technological change. Jose and Cruz (1999) further provided detailed suggestions on both supply and demand adaptation measures. The supply side adaptation strategies included comprehensive watershed management and reallocation system of water supply. Governmental watershed programme is recommended to focus on rehabilitation of erosion and siltation of rivers, lakes and reservoirs through preventing excessive logging and shifting cultivation. Another suggested option for the supply-side management was water reallocation and compensation schemes that would balance the water use demand for different purposes such as agricultural irrigation, hydropower energy and domestic use. In addition to adaptation in water supply, adaptation measures to control water demand were investigated. Being a case of greatest consumer of water, the agricultural sector was reflected upon. These demand side adaptation measures included enhancement of irrigation efficiency through changing the cropping schedule to reduce water demand, lining canals to reduce water losses and building drainage reuse system to reuse their effluents for other secondary purposes, as well as introduction of low water use 57
Page 1 and 2:
Desktop St
Page 3 and 4:
Desktop St
Page 5 and 6:
RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
Page 7 and 8:
DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
Page 9 and 10:
NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
Page 11 and 12:
FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
Page 13 and 14:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
Page 15 and 16:
put in place management systems for
Page 17 and 18: There are several good initiatives
Page 19 and 20: Conclusion This study takes precede
Page 21 and 22: Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
Page 25 and 26: Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
Page 43 and 44: Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
Page 67: Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
Page 117 and 118: Cambodia has a characteristic tropi
Page 119 and 120:
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Being heavily affected by the rainf
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
Page 169 and 170:
Jose, A. M. and N. A. Cruz (1999).
Page 171 and 172:
Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
Page 173 and 174:
12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
Page 176:
Secretariat AdaptationKnowledgePlat
show all

Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?