Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> the HDR. By 2050, the temperature will increase (relative to period of 1980 - 1999) between 0.8 - 1.5°C and by 2100 between 1.6 - 2.8°C with the minimum in the Central Highlands and the maximum in the North Central zone. For the same scenario, in rainfalls, it gives an increase of 0.7 - 3.9% (relative to period 1980 -1999) by 2050 and 1.0 - 5.2% by 2100. The less affected areas in 2050 and 2100 would be Central Highlands and South while the most affected would be the North Delta. The Initial National Communication states that for the Mekong River and the Red River, climate change would have profound impacts on surface water resources: annual run-off varies from +4% to -19%, peak discharge, with an increase in evapotranspiration. Because of the daily rainfall increase (12 - 19%), the peak discharge increases significantly with a decrease in the return periods. The flood peak, which earlier had a return period of 100 years, would now be only 20 years. The flood peak, which previously had a return period of 20 years, would only be five years now; flood episode frequency would be higher. For medium rivers and small rivers, the highest decrease of annual runoff was recorded in the East of South Viet Nam (29 - 33%), Central Viet Nam (23 - 40.5%), North Viet Nam and North of Central Viet Nam (2 - 11.5%), and the highest increase was in extreme South of Central Viet Nam (49%), Central Highland (6 - 16%) (MoNRE, 2003). Drought will also intensify by 3% in coastal areas and by 8% in inland areas, due to variation in rainfall and temperature, which will affect evapotranspiration (ICEM, 2009). Groundwater resources will be affected in the coastal zones because of sea level rise and seawater intrusion. In the Central Highlands region, a decrease in the groundwater level is another potential and important effect in the area. Important water security changes are expected to be associated with changes in temperature and precipitation, and also, associated with sea level rise, coastal storms, and saltwater intrusion changes in the delta regions of major river basins. Some of the threats that will be faced because of climate change related water security issues are: Although precipitation will increase in general, an uneven distribution of resources is projected. The complex interaction of precipitation and temperature changes could result in less runoff to streams in several regions. This could cause increased water stress, prolonged droughts, and increase in water conflict. Hydropower production could drop as a result of the reduction in river flows in the long term. Water supplies for drinking, agriculture, and industry could also be threatened by reduced river flows and reduced groundwater recharge. For example, in the Mekong Basin: Sea level rise and coastal intrusion could have substantial impacts on delta area productivity and sustainability. Coastal cities such as Ho Chi Minh City could be impacted significantly. (World Bank, 2007) Another important impact to be expected is sea level rise. According to the results of the temperature and the rainfall scenarios provided by the Sea Level Scenarios for Viet Nam report, by mid 21st century, sea level may rise by 28 to 33 cm (considering the three scenarios described) and by 2100 would be about 65 cm to 100 com relative to the base line period of 1980-1999 (MoNRE, 2009). Due to the difficulties and the limited understanding of climate change, together with other uncertain factors such as economic or social development, “the most harmonious scenario is the medium scenario which is recommended for ministries, sectors and provinces/cities to use as an initial basis in climate change and sea level rise impact assessments and in the development of action plans to respond to climate change”, mentions MoNRE (2009). According to this scenario, by 2050, sea level may rise 30 cm and by 2100, 75 cm. Considering these predictions, the sea level rise will significantly affect deltas, islands and could have strong impacts on coastal ecosystems and communities. All this could be aggravated by the sinking of delta land, coastal degradation, and loss of coral reefs. Viet Nam has been classified as one of the five most vulnerable countries to sea level rise due to its long coastal line. Also, sea level rise, in combination with increased coastal storms and inland hydrologic changes, could impact the water security of coastal areas. This could be manifested as seawater inundation of productive land areas, seawater intrusion into coastal aquifers, and resulting water scarcity in these coastal areas. In small islands, there is a special threat from these changes to the small freshwater lenses that are vital to island communities (World Bank, 2007). Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in the Water Sector Viet Nam, because of its geographical locations, creates great potential in hydro-electricity, and water storage but also poses increased risks of flood and 36
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change land erosion. Additionally, water resources appear to be degrading and suffering negative impacts from deforestation and pollution (Trung, unknown). Also, the most populated areas and where the main economic activity is taking place are those with high flood risks, increased salinity of water resources and other hazards related to water resources. The Initial National Communication lists suggestive measures for adaptation to climate change impacts (MoNRE, 2003): Building reservoirs with the total additional capacity of 15 - 20 billion m3 for containing flood water to mitigate losses caused by floods, and to regulate water during low-flow season. High priority should be given to the eastern parts of South Viet Nam, central highland and mountainous areas in North Viet Nam; Upgrading and raising the scale of drainage systems, the existing sea and river-mouth dykes, and building new sea dykes; Controlling population growth rate in vulnerable areas and organizing new resettlement areas to avoid the effects of sea level rise; Reclaiming areas, especially in hilly midland areas in the North Viet Nam, for agricultural production; Use of water effectively with special attention to increased run-offs during low- flow season, which is regulated by reservoirs upstream; Sustainable use of water sources; Conducting studies in long-term water resources prediction, seasonal, inter-annual predictions of water sources for planning rational and safe use of surface water sources. The MRC on its Climate Change Adaptation in the Lower Mekong Basin Countries Report lists ongoing activities, such as : upgrading and raising the level of drainage system; limiting population growth rate and redistribution of residential areas; cooperation for efficient water use; conducting studies in long‐term water resources prediction; and implementation of the strategy “Living with Flood”. Other adaptation activities are being implemented as part of the National Strategy and Action Plan for Disaster Mitigation and Management in Viet Nam 2001‐2020 and the MRC Strategy on Flood Management and Mitigation. The National Strategy stresses the notion of living with the floods. This includes various fixed requirements for flood safety and security in residential areas. Also, there is a program for house foundations to make them more flood secure. Low‐level dyke systems already control saltwater intrusion and early flooding, and water management in the Mekong Delta, focusing on irrigation water supply and prevention of saline water intrusion (ICEM, 2009). Thus, in the northern region, the emphasis is more on ‘positively prepare for and prevent flood’, and in the central part, it is on ‘positive preparedness, mitigation, and management’. Gaps Identified in Programs and Studies Currently there are policies, laws, programs and projects related with water resources protection, but there are still some weaknesses in water resources management. This could be summarized as the need of a long-term strategies on national and regional scales; that water resources have not been managed according to basin system; that the provision on the protection, utilization and management of water resources have been insufficient, including suitable management instruments on water quality standards and the limits for underground water utilization for each region; and finally, low investment for irrigation works having imperfect works as a result. Recent Projects in the Water Sector The Institute for Environmental Studies, ACACIA Water started the ADAPTS project, undertaking the Adaptive Water Management at the Local Scale – a Viet Nam case study in 2008. The overall aim of ADAPTS is to increase developing countries’ adaptive capacities by achieving the inclusion of climate change and adaptation considerations in water policies, local planning and investment decisions (My et al., 2008). The project is being implemented in six river basins around the world; and in Viet Nam, it is the Huong River Basin. Around 800,000 people live in the Huong River Basin. Their livelihoods, small-scale agriculture and fisheries, depend on the river and the lagoon into which the river drains. The local partner Centre for Social Research and Development (CSRD) aims to take climate change and adaptation into account in their work and support local adaptation measures. CSRD also aims to facilitate dialogue between communities, researchers and government authorities on climate change and adaptation in the basin, and supports the establishment of a platform on Climate Change in Central Viet Nam. According to the matrix of climate change activities elaborated by the World Bank in collaboration with the Government of Viet Nam, donors and NGOs (World Bank, 2009b), here are some of the projects identified under the water sector: (i) Impact of 37
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