Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong>
natural variability of climate change. The
estimates should not use average figure but
rather reflect changes in extremes such as
highest water levels, since the seasonal and
inter-annual water regime in the Mekong
floodplains and the Tônlé Sap highly varies.
The Tônlé Sap flood pulse system is viewed
critical for sustaining the high aquatic
production of the lake, and now several different
factors poses a risk on chaning the dynamics of
the system. Climate change is just one of these
changing factors that affect the TônléSap, and
there exist many other determinant factors
including upstream hydropower development
and local developments within the TônléSap
Basin such as large-scale irrigation projects.
This strongly indicates a need for more holistic
approach where the impacts to the lake system
at different temporal and spatial scales are
assessed comprehensively.
In considering the abovementioned changing
factors on flood pulse system, it is also important
to reflect on not only environmental, but also
social economic, institutional and political
factors that could cause environmental or
ecological changes. Non-environmental factors
are indeed likely to be much more crucial in
both shorter and longer term. The different
timescales of impacts from both climatic and
non-climatic factors such as hydropower
development are also essential for the impact
assessment.
There is also lack of knowledge that supports an
appropriate operational scheme such as real-time
information about rainfall and water level, flood
forecasts in the wet season (Watt, 2009 cited in
Solar, 2009). Similarly, the drought management
study of Kyoto University identifies the most
significant deficiencies: the absence of reliable
drought-forecasting mechanisms, the lack of a clear
definition of drought, and the lack of a consistent
response mechanism. It is suggested to map the
existing capacities of communities and undertake
a long-term capacity-building programme. It is also
indicated that there is a need for inclusive policymaking
process in which communities, governments
and NGOs jointly make a policy for drought risk
reduction. Community involvement is essential in
designing and implementing drought adaptation
practices at the local level.
In addition, as the study on the assessment of Mekong
Basin water resource reveals, not much research
and evaluation of the groundwater resources of
the Mekong Basin have been conducted, including
the volume, discharge/recharge rate and different
use of groundwater and sources, distribution and
impacts of groundwater contamination (Eastham
et al., 2008). This causes difficulty in quantifying
climate change effects on the water sector, leading
to generation of water-borne diseases as well as
unsustainable management of water demand and
supply.
Agriculture and Food Security Sector
Range of Studies Reviewed and
Methods Applied
Cambodia’s agricultural sector is affected by climate
change. The agricultural productivity, for example,
heavily relies on the flooding and recession of
the Tônlé Sap Lake and the Mekong River, which
brings fertile alluviums to the central plains (Royal
Government of Cambodia, 2006). This section
demonstrates the positive impacts of climate change
on the agricultural productivity, vulnerability of
and potential threats to the agricultural sector,
institutional responses to vulnerability (NAPA), and
several key adaptation strategies implemented by the
government and non-governmental organisations.
The potential impacts of climate change in the
agricultural sector at the year 2030 were indicated
under the most likely climate conditions for 2030
assessed based on the output of 11 GCMs (Eastham
et al., 2008). The study on assessment of climate
change impacts on crop yield was conducted by
using the FAO’s AquaCrop model (Roth, 2009).
Impacts on the Agriculture and Food
Security Sector
Eastham et al. (2008) summarises potential impacts
of climate change at the year 2030 on catchments of
the Mekong Basin in Cambodia with spatial analysis
of five regions: Se San (north-east), Kratie (central),
Tônlé Sap (central), Phnom Penh (south-eastern)
and Border (southern) (Roth, 2009). According to
this study, the above-mentioned first three areas
will experience increase in agricultural productivity
and food availability in excess of demand decreased,
although the minimum agricultural area in the
Tônlé Sap may increase. Building on the work by
Eastham et al. (2008), the Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO),
the Mekong River Commission (MRC) and the
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