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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> Table_15 Overview on natural disasters in Union of Myanmar from 1900 to 2010 Top 5 Natural Disasters in Cambodia for the period 1980-2009 Type of natural disaster Date/year Storm May 2008 2,420,000 Flood Jul 1974 1,400,053 Storm Oct 1965 500,000 Flood Aug 2002 359,976 Flood Jun 1976 200,000 Storm Apr 1936 150,000 Flood Aug 1997 137,418 Storm May 1978 132,000 Storm May 1976 130,200 Flood Jul 2007 101,920 No of people affected Top 10 Natural Disasters in Union of Myanmar for the period 1900-2010 Type of natural disaster Total no of events No of people affected Damage 000 US$ Earthquake 6 15,860 500,000 Epidemic 3 800 - Flood 18 2,427,378 134,955 Mass move-ment (wet) 9 1,367 - Storm 16 3,675,795 4,022,388 Wildfire 2 78,588 11,000 Source: EM-DAT (2009): The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www. emdat.be - Université catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium. Water Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied The impacts of current and projected climate changes in flood, drought and sea-level rise are described, employing climatic information from the world bank and IPCC fourth Report. The World Bank uses Japanese High Resolution GCM with finer spatial scale to project rainfall intensity and the amount of rainfall. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report refers to the Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs for projection of temperature and precipitation under SRES A1FI and B1 pathways. The major causes of flooding in certain parts of Myanmar are also remarked. Center for Refugee and Disaster Response (2008) estimates areas and populations vulnerable to Cyclone Nagris using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based models that were overlaid with spatially distributed population data. Geographic vulnerability were analysed based on storm path, projected storm surge generated from the cyclone data, and elevation. Models included all townships within 250 km of the cyclone path. (World Bank, 2009c). The maximum amount of rainfall during any 5-day period, equivalent to an extreme storm event, is projected to increase. The maximum period between rainy days is most likely to increase. However, in the regions of upper Myanmar’s dry zone that receive less than 30 centimetres of rain per year, the annual rainfall is reduced to less than 10 centimetres (NAHRIM, unknown). According to local meteorologist, average rainy day is also reduced from 145 to 110 (ibid). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Finally, the current local practices of flood prevention were described. The prevention measures have been implemented through multilevel participation as well as use of local knowledge on flood events and traditional technique of protecting a dyke. These are documented as good practices by the ADRC (2008). Impacts on the Water Sector Most of studies on climate change impacts on the water sector highlight the Ayeyarwady river basin, one of the major rivers covering about 60% of the total area of Myanmar. The Ayeyarwady river basin is divided into the upper and lower parts with the river confluence with the Chindwin River. The Ayeyarwady river flows from north to south, 126
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Figure 46: Percentage of people affected due to top 10 natural disasters 1900-2010 draining through nine deltas into the Indian Ocean. The Ayeyarwady delta region is nowadays observed to be affected from increased frequency of floods and cyclones due to climate change (Khin Thein Htwe, 2009). Storm 39% Flood 61% Floods generally occur during the southwest Monsoon season of June through October due to intense rainfall that is resulted from the low pressure waves superimposed on the general monsoon. Particularly in the lower Ayeyarwady river basin, the main cause of flooding is tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones are at times very destructive due to the three main constituents: strong winds (above 150 km/hour), heavy rainfall (above 30 to 40 cm in 24 hours), and storm surges (above 4 to 5 m). Figure 47: Percentage of people affected due to total natural disasters 1900-2010 Storm 60% Wildfire 1% Flood 39% Figure 48: Percentage of damage (US$) due to total natural disasters 1900-2010 Wildfire 0% Flood 3% Earthquake 11% Flood incidents could become worse in Myanmar given the projected changes on intense rainfall, temperature and cyclone intensity in Myanmar and around the South-East Asian region. As mentioned earlier, rainfall intensity as well as the amount of rainfall caused by an extreme storm event are projected to increase (World Bank, 2009c). In addition, according to the fourth IPCC report with regional specifics in projected climatic changes, annual precipitation is projected to increase along with mean winter and summer precipitation in South-East Asia for the three times slices, namely 2020s, 2050s and 2080s (Lal, 2003, Rupa Kumar et al., 2003, Kwon et al., 2004, Boo et al., 2004, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005, Kurihara et al., 2005 cited in Parry et al., 2007). Also, an increase in occurrence of extreme weather events including intense precipitation is expected (Emori et al., 2000, Kato et al., 2000, Sato, 2000, Lal, 2003, Rupa Kumar et al., 2003, Hasumi and Emori, 2004, Ichikawa, 2004, May, 2004b, Walsh, 2004, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2005, Kurihara et al., 2005 cited in Parry et al., 2007) along with an increase in the inter-annual variability of daily precipitation during the summer monsoon (Lal et al., 2000, May, 2004a, Giorgi and Bi, 2005 cited in Parry et al., 2007). Furthermore, South-East Asia will face gradual temperature rise with a similar level to the global mean warming over the same time slices (Ruosteenoja et al., 2003, Christensen et al., 2007 cited in Parry et al., 2007). Regarding tropical cyclone intensities, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report also indicates an increase of 10 to 20% along with a rise in sea-surface temperature of 2 to 4°C. As a result of abovementioned projected changes on intense rainfall, temperature and cyclone intensity in Myanmar and over South-East Asia, the frequency 127
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
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Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
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Page 167 and 168: Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
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Page 171 and 172: Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
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