Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> The Cagayan Valley was identified as one of the provinces that are most affected to chronic flashfloods, typhoons and droughts (RMSI (2007). Between 1991 and 2005, the region Cagayan Valley has lost in total approximately 1 million tons of palay due to flashflood and typhoons and 0.4 million tons due to drought (ibid). Lansigan et al. studied agricultural impacts and differentiated the impacts of long-term weather variability and short-term weather episodes (2000). The effects of long-term climate variability include the delay of sowing date, the narrower dry season planting period, and unnecessary water stress during the wet season cropping period and the resulting lower yield (ibid). The several impacts of short-term weather episodes are: high temperature induced sterility in rice that results from disturbance of pollen shedding and decreased variety of pollen grains; increasing irrigation water requirement that is attributed to decrease in rainfall during the El Nino year and water stress at rice panicle initiation. This leads to increase in the proportion of unfilled grains and decrease in 1000-seed weight as well as reduced water availability at vegetative stage. Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in the Agriculture and Food Sector The Philippines’ Initial National Communication identified three aspects with high vulnerability to climate change-the loss of arable lands due to sea level rise; decreased soil fertility due to increased soil erosion; and decreased crop productivity (1999). It further addressed the second consequences of decreased crop yield: loss of food supply and loss of jobs, particularly for marginalized farmers. The adaptation strategies recommended in the First National Communication consists of four key areas: economic, technological, institutional and research strategies. These strategies were chosen mainly because of low implementation cost (First National Communication, 1999). The Department of Agriculture have already accepted some of these recommended measures with low investment costs, compared to the planned irrigation system development. Improved coordination of basic services offered by various governmental agencies are safe and judicious and optimum/efficient use of fertilizers or the so-called Balanced Fertilization Strategy, implementation of strategies to address the ENSO episodes, and the introduction of new least-cost technologies such as hydroponics and evaporation control (ibid). In the study of Lansigan et al. (2000), vulnerability and adaptation measure are investigated in the light of crops and crop production system, but not comprising enhancement of farmers’ capacity to adapt their responses to changing climatic conditions. The main focus of this study is the causality between vulnerability and risks of crop production and climate variability. The conclusion was that the degree of vulnerability of crops to climate changes depends mainly on the development stage of the crops at the time of weather fluctuation. Scientific understanding of crop-climate relationships would contribute to formulating location-specific production technologies. Adaptation measures introduced, therefore, include planting new rice varieties in unstable production areas that are early maturing, lodging-resistant and water-logged resistant ones. Adaptation measures recommended by Lansigan et al. (2000) are developed by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). IRRI has created three new rice species grown from genetically modified seeds that have built-in traits of flood, drought and salt-tolerance (2009). In Philippines, around 400,000 ha of coastal rice-growing land, 370,000 ha of rice-growing land and 1,180,000 ha of cultivated rice-growing upland are affected by salinity from sea water, flooding and drought respectively (ibid). Thus, the three new rice varieties have been invented with an aim to “help Filipino farmers grow more rice in difficult conditions” through the following steps: 1) increase of rice breeders and foundation seeds by IRRI and the Philippines Rice Research Institute (PhilRice), 2) official approval 3) making basic seeds available to seed growers and selected farmers, 4) catering to other farmers by those selected; and 5) other farmers gaining the overall increase in productivity of rice (ibid). The vulnerability study of the farmers in Tanauan City identified frequent intense droughts and increased market competition as important sources of their vulnerability (Acosta-Michlik and Espaldon 2008). Particularly, this is evident for farmers who do not own irrigation infrastructure, since their income are reduced by lower crop yield as well as higher production and marketing costs induced from public market. In the study, it was found that production support for increasing cropping intensity of rice production as well as yield would considerably reduce vulnerability only if complemented with market support to increase the price of rice and/or decrease the transport costs to the market (ibid). 60
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Gaps Identified in Programs and Studies Scientific Gaps There are limited data and analysis on the definition of meteorological drought and potentially, this could be a barrier in devising drought risk assessment to prepare drought risk management plans as in the rice sector. Basic maps such as drought hazard maps are either incomplete or unavailable. In addition, while there seems to be reasonable amount of study pertaining to El Niño and la Niña, there have been no efforts to fuse El Niño and la Niña into one ‘drought index’-based on meteorological and rain gauge stations recorded historical time series data (RMSI, 2007). Capacity Gaps According to RMSI (2007), only limited data and basic maps on meteorological drought hazards are available. There is need for hazard maps, as done at regional level to enable municipal governments to prepare drought risk management plans. The results and recommendations of the studies made by Lansigan (2000) and IRRI (2009) does not support local vulnerable people to enhance their capacity to adapt existing adaptation practices to changing climate conditions nor increase resilience of people to climate change. Acosta-Michlik and Espaldon (2008) stated that the adaptive capacity of most vulnerable farmers to apply available technical adaptation measures is prevented mainly due to lack of money and information. Socio-Economic Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied RMSI assessed economic damages in agricultural fields such as rice and corn farmlands that were caused by water hazards (2007). These covered reduced rice crop and palay production, increased power demand for agricultural water pumping, impact on rice-based industries and employments. The PCW study views vulnerability in line with IPCC Fourth Assessment Report which defines vulnerability to climate change as “the propensity of human and ecological systems to suffer harm and ability to respond to stresses imposed as a result of climate change impacts” (Chapter 17, Zero Order Draft in Lasco, 2006). Analytical framework depicted the determinants of vulnerability at two spatial scales, namely, households and communities. The occurrence of climate variability and extremes assessed with consideration of the climatic type in PCW included El Nino, La Nina, early onset or delay of rainy season, prolonged rains and typhoons. The data collection methods employed in the study were secondary data gathering, household survey, use of participatory rural appraisal techniques, and direct field observation and GPS readings of identified vulnerable areas. Information gathered were analyzed through several approaches for the different purposes. The qualitative approach was used for assessing the degree of present of vulnerability of the differentiated socio-economic groups. The vulnerability index was developed with multi-level indicators, namely, food, water, livelihood, and health, in order to determine the factors influencing the households’ vulnerability to climate variability and extremes and compare the researchers’ judgment and the local communities’ perspectives. The quantitative techniques such as correlation and regression models were used to determine the combined effects of the different hypothesized factors on households’ vulnerability. Finally, mapping of vulnerable areas was created to assess the degree of vulnerability by land use type with the aid of GIS. Resurreccion et al. focused on social implications of climatic variability and extreme events and highlighted the difference between local adaptation strategies practiced by well-off and marginalised farmers (2008). Resurreccion et al. further pointed out a key process that would enhance adaptation capability. Acosta-Michlik and Espaldon (2008) reviewed vulnerability study based on a behavioural model of agent’s adaptation to climate change and addressed social values and network as key determinant factors of individuals’ mal-adaptation responses. Impacts on Socio-Economic Sector Cyclones, floods, and droughts induced 82.4% of the total Philippine rice losses between 1970 and 1990. In 1990 alone, domestic losses resulted from climatic events amounted to US$ 39.2 million. Between 1990 and 2006, the Philippines faced an average annual damage of 0.5% of GDP due to disasters, of which cyclones accounted for 62% of total damage and 70% of agricultural damage (Benson, 2007, cited in RMSI, 2007). Particularly, during the periods of severe El Niño as well as la Niña, economic losses were reported to be very significant (RMSI, 2007). For example, the ENSO occurring during the 1997- 61
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Being heavily affected by the rainf
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Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
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Jose, A. M. and N. A. Cruz (1999).
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Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
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12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
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Secretariat AdaptationKnowledgePlat
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