Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> In Dutta’s case study in Bangkok the overall approach and methodology followed to carry out the project uses the surface and river components of the IISDHM 6 model for flood inundation simulation. The Anthropogenically Engineered Transformations of Land Use and Land Cover (AGENT-LUC) Model, which is a national scale, integrated, dynamic timeseries simulation model, was used for assessing the land use and land cover changes as result of the human activities (Dutta, 2007). The Bangkok Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009, also gives a review on what will be the impacts of sea level rise in Bangkok (BMA et al., 2009). Parry et al. although is an old study gives some interesting data related with the impacts of sea level rise that can be used as a reference, and it is based on the GISS 2 x CO2 climate projection. The potential impacts described are focused on the effects on rice production in Ayuthaya Province and effects of sealevel rise in Suratthani Province (Parry et al, 1992). Impacts on Socio-Economic Sector Thailand suffered more than 70 billion baht (around US$1.75 billion) in economic losses due to floods, storms, and droughts between 1989 and 2002; related catastrophes will increase and intensify under effects of climate change what will result in reduction of productivity and hence less economic development and increasing social problems. The economic losses came mainly from the agriculture sector, as is been said before, crop productions are mostly from rain fed agriculture, which implies changes due to variations in climate; crop yield losses amounted to more than 50 billion baht (around US$1.25 billion) between 1991 and 2000 (ADB, 2009c). Thailand has approximately 2940km of coastline, containing important economic activities such as shrimp and rice farming. The Parry et al. study considers the potential impact of a 0.5 m and 1 m rise of sea levels in the Suratthani Province in southern Thailand that has a characteristic dune line of 1m elevation above sea level, which is a natural boundary to the area potentially affected by a 1m sea-level rise. The result is that 7400 ha (37 %) of the study area would be affected by inundation under a 1 m sea-level rise. About 4200 ha of productive agricultural land and large numbers of shrimp ponds would be lost (Parry et al., 1992). There also are other coastal areas that are occupied by different 6 The IISDHM (International Institute for Sustainable Development Hydrological Model), is a physically based distributed hydrological model activities, including agriculture, communities, ports and resorts, among others. These areas would, in one way or another, be affected by a rise in the sea level. Saltwater intrusion has also affected many agricultural areas in the coastal regions of Thailand. The Bangkok Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009 mentions that the possibility of inundation from rising sea levels also has to be taken into account. Although now this is a relatively slow process, with the waters in the Gulf of Thailand are rising at a rate of about 25 mm per year; if Bangkok were finally inundated, this would mean the destruction of the country’s economic engine and its status as a major hub for tourism (BMA et al., 2009). The case study carried out for Bangkok provides a macro picture of projected flooding and its socioeconomic impacts, using various scenarios of mean sea level rises in the twenty-first century. The simulated outcomes of the flood model used in the study shows that almost 55 per cent of Bangkok would be affected by floods if the mean sea level were to rise by 50 cm; if the mean sea level rises to twice that level (by 100 cm), 72 per cent of the city would be affected. Such flooding would have adverse impacts on both the social and economic sectors of the capital. The outcomes of a recent socio-economic impacts analysis show that the number of floodaffected buildings, and the size of the population and number of roads adversely affected would rapidly increase in line with projected sea-level rises from 2025 to 2100 (Dutta, 2007). Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Socio-Economic Sector Thailand, as an agriculture base country has vast population of rain-fed farmers, whose livelihood mainly relies on the rice production and could seriously be affected from impact of climate change. The analysis of the review data that Snidvongs (2006) study does is focused on rice productivity variations regarding different climate scenarios and its impact on farmers’ livelihood condition. This analysis shows that vulnerability is site-specific condition and depends on the degree of climate impact and socio-economic condition as well as physical condition of each site. The profile of risk to climate change impact would differ from community to community (Snidvongs, 2006). For Thailand, the same study shows that approximately one-third of population is low risk to climate impact, while the moderate risk group is the largest group, with 40-50% of the surveyed 96
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change population. Climate change has favorable impact on rice cultivation, but it cannot cover the influence of extreme climate event and cause large portion of population to be vulnerable. In this case, many of those households in moderate risk group moved to high-risk group (Snidvongs, 2006). According to sea level rice, Thailand has a high concentration of economic activities as well as big cities near the coastal area, which makes the country more vulnerable to this impact. Managing climate risk and the use of measures to reduce their vulnerability is not new for farmers, specifically rice farmers, of the Southeast Asia region, as for Thailand. These measures are different depending on the specific conditions that the communities are facing, such as climate hazards faced, physical and environmental constraints, available technologies, social and economic condition, vitality of community institutions, market conditions, and the priorities and objectives of the farm households. The results suggest a pattern that is shaped by the socio-economic condition of their community. Some of the measures are focused and appear because of climate risks, but others are implemented because of other concerns, but also reduce climate risks by increasing the resilience of farmers’ livelihoods external factors. They include measures that are implemented at the individual farm-level, the community-level, and the national level (Snidvongs, 2006). Farmers in Thailand lean their measures on: (i) national level; and (ii) household level, which is focused on income diversification, from alternative sources that are not as sensitive to climate variations. The main practice is seasonal migration to work in the cities, in order to secure fixed income for the household due to the fact that salary income from city employment is less sensitive to climate. Seasonal and permanent migration to diversify and support household incomes is made possible by close links between the rural villages and urban areas where there is demand for labour (Snidvongs, 2006). The measures that the BMA report contains related with sea level rise in Bangkok, especially in Bang Khuntien District, refer to land use planning, construction or improvement of levees and dykes, water reservoirs and waste discharge designs, coastal protection phased retreat, harbour/port operation and engineering for business and commercial, and ecosystem protection (BMA et al. 2009) Gaps Identified in Programmes and Studies In Thailand, as a developing country, is very focused on development concerns such as poverty alleviation, economic growth and environmental degradation, given little less attention to the issue of climate change. But, climate change is strongly linked with economic activities central in modern societies: energy production and consumption, transportation, and so on. Therefore, it should not be dissociated from the fundamental concerns of human society, such as national economic planning, public administration and human development (Permpibul and Routray, 2009). Also, as has been seen in the studies reviewed, the role of community level measures has declined or been neglected for household level and national level (Snidvongs, 2006). Current responses to extreme climatic events are viewed more as disaster preparedness and mitigation opportunities rather than as warning signals of much needed long-term adaptation. Existing climate change models do not provide conclusive assessments of the associated impacts at local levels. Therefore, there is a need for a bottom-up approach to address the level of vulnerability to the existing and future impacts to improve adaptation at local level in the longterm. Adaptation is strengthening capacities of communities in the longer term, and is context specific; hence require an active and meaningful participation of stakeholders (Permpibul and Routray, 2009). Furthermore, there is still a lack of baseline information to understand the interplay between natural and human systems (economic and social issues) and a gap in information on changes in climate and human systems in different ecosystems and agro‐climatic systems. The human dimension, especially livelihood aspects and inter‐sectoral relationships have not been incorporated successfully on the national scale assessment. Without this for designing and planning adaptation policies, strategies and programs, decisions on adaptation will stay uncertain and will not conduct to effective results (MRC, 2009). Recent Projects regarding Socio- Economic Aspects Thailand, because of the Kyoto Protocol, included the climate change issue in its 11th National Economic and Social Development Plan, to be implemented between 2012 and 2016. On top of the Government’s efforts, some initiatives in combating climate change 97
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
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Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
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Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
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Jose, A. M. and N. A. Cruz (1999).
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Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
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12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
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Secretariat AdaptationKnowledgePlat
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