Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries
in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change
Myanmar is considered as an agriculture-based
country with the agriculture sector’s contribution to
the GDP of 40.9% in 2008. The country being prone
to natural disasters such as flooding and cyclones,
potential impacts from the natural disaster in the
agricultural sector can be devastating. In 1991, for
example, the breach of Hteinngu embankment on the
Ngawun River, a branch of the Ayayarwaddy River
affected 2.8 million acres of paddy land, 167,520
acres under other crops, 67,306 houses, 74,674
draught animals, 326,926 people from 269 villages,
and 8 townships (NAHRIM, unknown).
The study of Matthews et al. (1997) demonstrates
the overall effect projected by both crop models of
changes in temperature and CO2 levels on potential
yields, averaged across all sites, seasons and years.
It is predicted that all CO2 levels, an increase in
temperature would cause a decline in yields, and
that at all temperature increments, an increase in
CO2 would increase yield. The country-specific data
projects that the estimated changes in total rice
production under two crop models and three GCM
scenarios ranges between -13% to 21% (IRRI, 1993
cited in Matthews et al., 1997). Furthermore, the
total rice production in Myanmar is estimated to
increase with a range of 28% to 32% given varietal
adaptation on rice production. This results show
that the use of more temperature-tolerant genotypes
of rice could offset the negative effect of increased
temperatures on yields (Matthews et al., 1997).
Food security is expected to become more unstable
and unsustainable in the Central Dry Zone of the
Ayayarwaddy River owing to the projected reduction
of annual rainfall and the number of rainfall days.
The region has climatic attributes of an extreme dry
and seasonal climate. The farmers hardly receive
enough rain to grow dry crops, leading them to
rely on the protein from fishes that are caught in
the Ayayarwaddy river (NAHRIM, unknown). The
reduced rainfall may change ecological system inside
the river, posing a risk in their livelihood sources.
Vulnerability and Adaptation in the
Agricultural and Food Sector
Rice is the single most important crop, accounting
for 60% of the country’s total cultivated area and
97% of total food grain production (IRRI, unknown).
Given this fact, the potential option on creation of
new rice variety identified by Matthews et al. (1997)
can be one of adaptation strategies. The scientists of
Myanmar and IRRI put this option into a practice.
They released fifty-two modern rice varieties
between 1966 and 1997, allowing the country to
increase national production to 14 million tons in
1987 to 19 million tons in 1996 (IRRI, unknown).
At the governmental level, neither NAPA nor
National Communication has been produced yet to
address the details on vulnerability and adaptation
strategies in the agricultural sector. However, the
country recognises significant effects of climate
change on the agricultural sector particularly in
the dry zone, as noted in the speech of Maj. Gen.
U Htay Oo, Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation
of Myanmar (UNESCAP, 2009). “To mitigate such
pressure we are implementing short-term and
longer term measures, such as promoting access
to irrigation water to increase productivity, and
developing resource-based as well as knowledgebased
sustainable agriculture and livelihoods built
on existing infrastructures” (ibid). Due to the
limited access to the governmental documents, no
further information of the short-term and longer
term measures are provided in this report.
Socio-Economic Sector
Range of Studies Reviewed and
Methods Applied
There has been little research on socio-economic
aspects of climate change effects on the water
and agricultural sectors in the Union of Myanmar.
Nonetheless, UNDP (2007) conducted a national
level assessment on disaster risks and adaptive
capacity in the context of climate change, particularly
economic and mortality risks from cyclones and
storms, drought and flood. Data on baseline climate
risks and GIS datasets describing the spatial extent
and relative intensity of mortality and economic
risks are employed from the study by Dilley et al. and
the Columbia University Center for Hazards and Risk
Research’s Hotspot website respectively. Spatial
data are demonstrated in a 2.5’ x 2.5’ global grid,
which presents relative risks for various hazards,
incorporating physical hazard intensity, historical
loss rates and population/GDP density. The level of
the adaptive capacity is classified into four categories
(Higher, Moderate, Low, Very Low) based on the
index of adaptive capacity developed by Malone and
Brenkert, for which an indicator model integrating
proxies for economic, human and environmental
capacity is used. Data on climate change projection
is applied from the Fourth Assessment Report of
the IPCC, and climate change risks were assessed
in terms of the likely impact of climate change on
existing hazards (increasing or decreasing stress).
NAHRIM depicts a case of social conflict over the
islands in the Ayeyarwaddy River that were formed
as a result of the changed water flow after flooding.
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