Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> efficiency suited to production with reduced water inputs (Abdullah, 2008) There are still some uncertainties like the magnitude of the change, the technology available, the crop and pest responses, what the adaptation measures are, lack of policies, and lack of methods of assessment (Abdullah, 2008). Socio-Economic Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied The Initial National Communication uses three scenarios for sea level rise (20 cm, 50 cm, and 90 cm) during the year of 2100 were examined. The biophysical impacts were assessed based on previous studies, but updated and aggregated to the national level. The assessment of socio-economic impacts is based on empirical work done on the project scale, and it quantifies the economic implications that come up from the projected biophysical impacts. To solve the difficulty of extending the project scale to national level, a simple linear extrapolation based on shoreline length and area extent was used for aggregation purposes. The projected economic loss associated with increased flooding, which comprises primarily damage to, and replacement/upgrading of, infrastructure, disruption of economic activity, and relocation of flood victims, is to be viewed as the worst-case scenario. (MOSTE, 2000) Impacts on Socio-Economic Sector The described impacts on water resources include an increase in the flood intensity and frequency, which may vary the costs of proposed flood mitigation plans to contain flood volumes. The cost and implications for existing plans and drainage systems are more serious due to the fact that double frequency of the design event, means a doubling of the frequency of the system ‘failure’, which is also a highly social and economic costs on modifying the infrastructure to cope with more frequent and severe flooding (MOST 2000). Consequently, occurrence of such disasters, could impact damaging effect on the economy, social and psychology of the people affected. Floods in Johor (2006-07) displaced 110,000 people, damaging an estimate of RM 0.35 billion worth of infrastructures and RM 2.4 billion of economics losses. An estimate of RM 84 million worth of agriculture produce were damaged or losses affecting 7000 farmers. About 9% of the land area in Malaysia (2.97 million ha) is in flood level and 3.5 million people have become victims. Monetarily, it is difficult to estimate the quantum but a conservative figure of RM 100 million has been used to estimate the average flood damage per year (Kamal, 2007). Besides, changes in water availability causing reductions in surface runoff rise up the needing of providing storage capacities by dams and reservoirs, which must be developed to ensure the steady supply of water through a prolonged period of dryness. An estimated cost (in 1995) of providing each cubic metre of water at dam site is RM0.20. Thus, the annual cost of augmenting the 20% loss in domestic and industrial water supply of 3,806 million m3 per annum would be RM152 million (MOSTE, 2000). Concerning to sea level rise the biophysical impacts are classified in tidal inundation, shoreline erosion, increased wave action, and saline intrusion. In all categories, the worst impacts are found at the highest rate of sea level rise (0.9 cm/year), where mangrove belt is projected to be lost, the shoreline erosion will increase in a 30% to the existing rate, because of a deeper water in the surrounding seas, larger waves are projected to break along the coastline and structural integrity of coastal facilities such as, public infrastructure and installations would be under risk (MOSTE, 2000). The Initial Communication makes estimation on the cost of the impacts caused by sea level rise. The loss of agricultural production from eroded and inundated lands is estimated on RM 46 million for Western Johor Agricultural Development Project area that accounts for 25% of national drainage areas. Longterm annual flood damage causing displacement and relocation of flood victims with disruption of economic activities resulting is estimated at about RM88 million for Peninsular Malaysia and RM12 million for Sabah/Sarawak based on 1980 price level. If the flood frequency is doubled, the annual flood damage will increase by 1.67 times. Also a loss of fisheries production due to mangrove loss will represent a loss of RM300 million based on 20% loss of mangrove resulting in a loss of about 70,000 tonnes of prawn production (MOSTE, 2000). Vulnerability and Adaptation in Socio-Economic Sector The incidence of poverty and hardcore poverty among Malaysians decreased from 8.5% and 1.9% in 1999 to 5.7% and 1.2% in 2004, respectively, due to the successful implementation of poverty eradication programs and favourable economic growth. In Malaysia, the incidence of hardcore poverty shows higher for the states of Sabah, Terengganu, Perlis, Kedah and Kelantan compared to the other states. 148
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change From those, Terengganu, Kelantan, Perlis, Kedah and Perak are the most vulnerable states in terms of hardcore poverty and projected temperature and rainfall changes. Also the most vulnerable peoples due to climate change are the poor and hardcore poor who have relatively larger household members (Siwar et al, 2009). The Initial Communication gives a serie of adaptation measures that are based on defence (building bunds/ seawalls/levees/dykes/etc.), accommodation, to retreat, which includes the relocation of affected people on a proactive way to avoid adverse impacts. An innovative measure is to transfer the line of defence seaward and reclaim the intervening area. This measure has the added advantage of being able to incorporate the projected sea level rise into its planning and design and has become popular in large segments of the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The Coastal Land Buyback is a proactive approach to convert private ownership to public domain and left the land as a nature reserve/corridor within which the natural variation of shoreline movement is permitted to take place. Finally, Malaysia is now in the process of embarking on an ICZM (Integrated Coastal Zone Management) initiative in which the potential impacts of sea level rise are given special consideration in planning, and where previous measures can be considered as components (MOSTE, 2000). Gaps Identified in Programmes and Studies The adaptation measures are feasible in the Malaysian context, but additional efforts are needed to quantify them in terms of cost implications. Some of these additional efforts include further research and development in improving the science of prediction of the responses and quantitative bases for estimating impacts and economic costs (MOSTE, 2000). There is a need to refine the methodology of costing socio-economic impacts through more research as well as to establish a disaster impact inventory. In addition, it is necessary to develop and incorporate economic recovery plans in dealing with disasters. There is also a need to study non-communicable diseases that may result from changes in the climate scenario such as increased stress within residents of small houses or flats as a result of rising temperatures. The management of energy, water and land resources need to be planned to balance demand and supply with adequate emphasis on the management of consumption. More action should be taken towards providing more information to policy makers to promote information-based decisionmaking (MOSTI, 2007). CROSS-SECTORAL INSTITUTIONAL SETTINGS Two different domains could be identified as being cross-sectoral institutional arrangements, i.e. climate change institutions, on the one hand, and institutional settings concerning disaster risk reduction, on the other hand. Climate Change Since the Third Malaysia Plan (1976-1980) the environmental concerns are progressively being emphasized in development plans (Hezri and Hasan, 2006). Many ministries formulated policies that have taken into account environmental concerns on sectoral specific context; all these climate related policies in Malaysia include the National Policy on the Environment, National Forest Policy, Biodiversity Policy, National Energy Policy, National Transport Policy (Land) and Third National Agricultural Policy, among others. Although sectoral in nature, these policies also contribute indirectly to addressing climate change (Muthusamy, 2007), however, there is no clear indication of climate change in any of them. Furthermore, there is need for the various policies to be harmonized with each other so that win-win options could be formulated through interagency collaboration and coordination for climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. The reviews of the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006-2010), the currently ongoing development plans, and several national policies reveal some programs that directly or indirectly contribute to managing issues of climate change adaptation and mitigation (Pereira and Tan, 2008). Climate change is cross-sectoral issue, involving more than environmental concerns, but also affecting economic growth and human well-being. As it has been said, while the past and existing national policies have indirectly addressed climate change concerns under the context of sustainable development, the need to formulate a specific climate change policy is increasingly recognized. In view of this, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Malaysia in collaboration with the Institute for Environment and Development (LESTARI), University Kebangsaan Malaysia, had conducted the Policy <strong>Study</strong> on Climate Change. The aim of the study was to develop a 149
Page 1 and 2:
Desktop St
Page 3 and 4:
Desktop St
Page 5 and 6:
RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
Page 7 and 8:
DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
Page 9 and 10:
NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
Page 11 and 12:
FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
Page 13 and 14:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
Page 15 and 16:
put in place management systems for
Page 17 and 18:
There are several good initiatives
Page 19 and 20:
Conclusion This study takes precede
Page 21 and 22:
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110: Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
Page 117 and 118: Cambodia has a characteristic tropi
Page 135 and 136: Being heavily affected by the rainf
Page 159: Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
Page 167 and 168: Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
Page 169 and 170: Jose, A. M. and N. A. Cruz (1999).
Page 171 and 172: Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
Page 173 and 174: 12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
Page 176: Secretariat AdaptationKnowledgePlat
show all

Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?