Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> stated to follow the nature, and is looking up for the better local governance (GTZ and MRC, 2007). The MRC-GTZ Watershed Management Project is in its current phase is expected to bring a comprehensive watershed management plans of action for each of the pilot areas (MRC and GTZ, 2008). The evaluation team recommends that the next phase of project should include climate change adaptation issues as priorities, in their project plan (MRC and GTZ, 2008). MRC’s Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) for the Mekong River Basin, is technically supported by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and SEA START (MRC, 2009a). The initial phase was implemented in July 2008, with the Regional Climate Change Forum as one of the first activities for fostering dialogue and consultation among the concerned stakeholders of the Lower Mekong Basin (MRC, 2008). A major goal of the CCAI is to improve the understanding of how the Mekong River environmental systems will be threatened by climate change. Also, the potential vulnerability will be intended to be reduced by establishing adaptation frameworks and mechanisms (MRC, 2008). At the national level, an integrated water resource management (IWRM) supported program was launched in October 2009 (Vientian Times, 2009a). The initiative is intended to help the Water Resources & Environment Administration (WREA) with the implementation of IWRM issues, such as the development and mainstreaming of river basin plans, sustainable use of ground water, and largescale water resource development projects. The program, being implemented from 2010 to 2012 is supported by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Australian Government’s Aid Program- AusAID and the Lao government (Vientian Times, 2009a). Also relevant to the water resources sector, especially with respect to adaptation to climate change, a technical assistance project will be undertaken from 2010 to 2012 (Vientian Times, 2009b). It is funded by the ADB and the Nordic Development Fund (NDF) and is led by the WREA. The project was launched in November 2009 and includes adaptive capacity development of WREA officials to cope with climate change, promoting climate resilient development of the country, and to strengthen access to financial instruments such as the Least Developed Country Funds. Climate change adaptation pilot activities will adopt approaches of “learning by doing” and “ecosystem-based adaptation” while addressing the priority sectors like agriculture, water and forestry (Vientian Times, 2009b). At the provincial level, five southern provinces of Lao PDR are currently case study sites to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. The technical assistance work is funded by ADB and includes the modelling of the impact of climate change on probabilistic flood risks, carried out by RMSI (2007), a consulting firm based in India (ADB, 2009a). Agriculture and Food Security Sector Lao PDR’s agriculture sector represents the country’s most important source of income, providing 40.3% to the total GDP in 2007 (Lao PDR, 2009a) and is also a critical factor towards Lao PDR’s food security. Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied Snidvongs (2006) presents a number of methods and models in the study on, “Extreme hydrological events and changes in water resources in Southeast Asia”. To study climate change impacts on rain-fed agriculture, the Decision Support System for Agro Technology Transfers (DSSAT version 4.0) is used for crop modelling to simulate future potential yield of rice vulnerability. Data considered in the modelling includes parameters such as range of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The potential impact of increased floods due to climate change, however, was not included (Snidvongs, 2006). Chinvanno et al. (2006) studied the farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate variability through household surveys and focus group meetings in selected study sites in Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam. In 2006, the World Food Programme (WFP, 2007) undertook a comprehensive analysis of food security and vulnerability in Lao PDR. The data collection took place through a key informant questionnaire that was distributed to the village head in the selected villages (in total 398) and a household questionnaire administered to sampled households (in total 3,926). This primary data was complemented by the secondary data such as food security literature from Lao PDR (WFP, 2007). A study led by the ADB reviewed the situation of the rice sector in Lao PDR, by reviewing existing studies and data (Bestari et al., 2006). The strategy framework reports of the National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI) and Northern Agriculture and Forestry Research 20
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Center (NAFReC) (NAFRI, 2008b) reviewed the institutional responses in the agricultural sector. Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security Sector Snidvongs’ (2006) has undertaken a study on climate change impacts due to extreme hydrological events and changes in water resources, including crop modelling for assessing the impact of climate change on rice productivity in Southeast Asia. <strong>Study</strong> findings indicate that the rain-fed rice production in Lao PDR, more specifically in Savannakhet province – shows tendency to be only slightly reduced under the modelled climate change scenario, taking into account longer hot and shorter cold periods (see also chapter 2.1.3 and Figure 4). However, it is to be noted that potential impacts due to more frequent and intense floods have not been assessed in this study. Indeed, discussions with farmer communities in Lao PDR have shown concerns among the farmers in view of an increased possibility of floods in future due to climate change (Chinvanno et al., 2006). Already, climate variability has been affecting Lao farmers, due to which adopting adaptation measures is necessary. The adaptation measures have evolved over the years, mainly because of the increasing variability in the dates of onset and end of the rainy season, changes in the wind direction, changes in rainfall distribution pattern throughout the season, and an increase in thunderstorm activity. Further, occurrence of these climatic events have increased in frequency throughout the rainy season, namely midseason dry spell after that rice seeds are sowed and occurrence of floods before the crop has been harvested have posed significant threats to farmers’ livelihoods (Chinvanno et al., 2006). Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Agriculture and Food Security Sector Vulnerability The country has seen a significant reduction of poverty due to the economic growth during the past two decades and despite the fact that the agriculture sector is the population’s predominant economic activity, insufficient food security is still affecting an important part of the Lao population (WFP, 2007). One main reason is that the country is predominantly mountainous – about 80% of the total surface (Lao PDR, 2009a) – making significant portions of the land not accessible by road and/or not cultivable (WFP, 2007). Especially in rural areas, chronic malnutrition is alarmingly high, with 50% of the children being affected. This indicates that Lao’s food security has not improved over the past decade. The study highlights that 13% of Lao’s rural population faced food insecurity at the time of the studied period during the post-harvest season and more than 50% were at risks to becoming food insecure because of floods and droughts (internal shocks) or oil price peaks (external shocks). This means that in total, two thirds of the rural population is effectively or potentially affected by food insufficiency. The study identified droughts as the biggest threat to the food insecurity, potentially affecting 46% of the rural population. Adaptation Farm households in Savannakhet Province have developed considerable ability to adapt to existing climate variability and hazards, states Snidvongs (2006) and the working report of Chinvanno et al. (2006). Chinvanno et al. (2006) and Snidvongs (2006) assessed the vulnerability and the adaptation of farmers to climate change. The results of the field survey indicate that the farmers’ vulnerability varies from place to place, depending on the degree of climate impact, socio-economic as well as the area’s physical conditions. At the same time, the socio-economic situation strongly influences the adaptation measures undertaken by the rain-fed farmers. Farmers in less developed socio-economic conditions in Lao PDR tend to rely mostly on simple farm level measures being implemented with limited financial and other resources, the food security of the household being a major focus. Adopted farm level measures include raising livestock and harvesting for increased food resources and changes in seed varieties, timing and methods of cultivation. Farmers in Lao PDR tend to rely on the natural eco-system for improving their livelihood. Farmers in more developed conditions such as in Thailand, on the other hand, show the tendency to adopt measures such as seasonal migration to urban areas for diversifying the income and show a higher dependency on improved technologies and financial resources. Due to the limited extent of adaptation measures at national and community levels to date, the study identifies the adaptive capacity at the individual farm levels as key limiting factor for managing climate risks in Lao PDR. The implementation of an early warning system together with accurate risk communication techniques reaching the affected population could improve the performance of on-farm adaptation measures, but constraints include the precision of climate forecasts and the reliability of communication networks. Also, the lack of suitable seed types, dependency on rice, consumption preferences and lack of financial knowledge and other resources impose limits to 21
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12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
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