Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong>
Table_13 Overview on natural disasters in Cambodia
from 1980 to 2009
Water Sector
Top 5 Natural Disasters in Cambodia for the period 1980-2009
Type of natural
disaster
Date/year
Drought Jun 1994 5,000,000
Flood Jul 2000 3,448,053
Flood Aug 2001 1,669,182
Flood Aug 2002 1,470,000
Flood Sep 1996 1,300,000
Total Natural Disasters in Cambodia for the period 1980-2009
Type of
natural
disaster
Total no of
events
No of
people
affected
Storm 2 34,300 10
dry seasons (-54 to +35%) (Mac Sweeney et al., 2008
cited in Roth, 2009). Another research anticipates
greater temperature rise by about 2.3 to 2.8°C
(Lacombe, 2009 cited in Roth, 2009). It also projects
a reduction in total rainy days and a decrease in
dry season rainfall, interpreting it as a wetter rainy
season with increase in intense rainfall events and
resulting flood hazards. This study further predicts
shifting of the average onset and end of the rainy
season by about two days every 10 years.
The projection focused on the sub-basins of the
Mekong River Basin shows that annual precipitation
along the Tônlé Sap catchment areas is most likely
to increase in a range of 200-300 mm, leading to the
a decline of the eastern Kratie catchments (Eastham
et al., 2008 cited in Roth, 2009). Although this trend
is expected to occur in wet seasons, a small median
decrease- about -10 to -14 mm- in dry season rainfall
is projected in 2030. The lower Mekong, including the
whole area of Cambodia, temperature is predicted to
increase by 0.7°C to 0.8°C in 2030 compared to the
1951-2000 baselines.
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS, VULNERABILITY
AND ADAPTATION
No of people
affected
Damage
000 US$
Drought 5 6,550,000 138,000
Flood 13 9,533,614 328,100
Epidemic 9 417,938 -
Source: EM-DAT (2009): The OFDA /CRED; International Disaster Database; www.emdat.net
- Université Catholique de Louvain – Brussels, – Belgium. Created on: Dec-23-
2009. - Data version: v12.07
108
Range of Studies
Reviewed and Methods
Applied
Most of the assessments of climate
change projections employed
in this report rely on Global
Circulation Model (GCM). Eastham
et al. (2008) selected 11 GCMs to
build the year 2030’s scenarios
of temperature and precipitation
for the IPCC A1B scenario. The
potential impacts of sea level rise in
the coastal areas were conducted
through Geographical Information
System (GIS) techniques. The
methodologies for assessing
provincial vulnerability to flood
and drought are not indicated in
the referred study.
The Water and Development
Research Group of Helsinki
University of Technology (TKK)
and the Southeast Asia START
Regional Center (SEA START RC)
analyses the hydrological impacts
of climate change as well as
related adaptation strategies in the Tônlé Sap area
of Cambodia (2009). The hydrological impacts of
climate change were projected for the period between
2010 and 2049 based on two main phenomena: 1)
changed basin hydrology due to climate changeinduced
changes in temperature and rainfall, and 2)
sea level rise. For this study, high resolution future
climate projection data was simulated for the 21st
Century through the PRECIS regional climate model
that employed as input dataset from ECHAM4 Global
Circulation Model under two different climate
scenarios (A2 and B2), and downscaled it for the
Mekong Region.
The National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA)
and the Initial National Communication (INC)
indicate the Level of vulnerability to flood and
drought by province and recommended adaptation
strategies. The local-level autonomous and planned
adaptation practices are also touched upon.
Impacts on the Water Sector
Many researchers see increase in frequency and
severity of flooding as a primary impact of climate