Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> on climate data from four GCMs, suggest similar declining trends in rice and maize yields over time with different magnitudes depending on climate conditions, soil types and crop practice. Maize yields, for example, could drop from 5 percent in Nakhon Sawan province to 44 percent in Nakhon Ratchasima province. For rice, yields could drop by 57 percent in Roiet province, but increase by 25 percent in Surin (MRC, 2009). In the study area, in Ubonratchathani province, the simulation shows trend of increase in yield of rice productivity under future climate condition. The increase in productivity yield could be as high as 10-15% in some areas (Snidvongs, 2006). The four climate models also demonstrated that climate change could increase temperature in areas, during the flowering period of crops, by 1 to 7°C. This will reduce flowering and harvesting periods as well as crop yields in general (MRC, 2009). Rainfall variability also reduces rice, corn and sugar productions. If monsoon events are too strong, inundations can cause plant diseases and insect infestation. Livestock production in Thailand is based on grazing and farming systems; both dependent on climate conditions such as precipitation and temperature, important for natural pasture and leftover’s from agriculture. Droughts and floods can cause food scarcity and new disease outbreak, affecting the production, and therefore, the farmers who has lack understanding in the prospects of climate change (Boonprakrob and Hattirat, 2006). Because of sea level rise, aquaculture, which is one of the most important sources of foreign exchange earnings of Thailand will be very affected. Large portions of the areas under aquaculture production are mangrove and mudflats, which areas are vulnerable to inundation. Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Agricultural and Food Sector In general, the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change varies according to crops and location characteristics, in addition to the climate conditions; also depends on the ability of farmers to diversify their crops as well (OEPP, 2000). Also, there are different levels of concern about climate change issues according to the vulnerability on agriculture and food security, as the AIACC report establishes. Thailand appears in the medium and low level of concern. The medium outcomes of concern are the increase of rural poverty rates, the decrease and more variable net farm incomes for many rural households, failures of small farms and accelerated rural-to-urban migration. The main climate drivers in this level are: (i) region-wide increase in frequency of climate extremes that cause losses of crops, livestock and income, and (ii) changes in the average climate or significant shifts in rainy season that stress traditionally grown crops and available substitutes. Also, other drivers are listed are declining output prices, rising input prices, lack of income diversification of rural households, lack of access to credit by small farmers, poor rural infrastructure and lack of social safety nets. The outcomes of concern that appear in the low level are also the decrease and more variable net farm incomes for some rural households but also the decreased and more variable quality of crop and livestock output and the temporary migrations as strategy to obtain off-farm incomes. More severe effects can be kept in check by: robust and diversified rural development, equitable access to resources (e.g. improved seed varieties) adequate household savings, maintenance of social safety nets, political stability, well maintained rural infrastructure and services and access to credit and insurance (Leary et al., 2007). As has been said in the impacts, farmers of rain-fed rice in Thailand are exposed to variations in rice harvests and other impacts from seasonal flooding, shifts in the dates of beginning and end of the rainy season, and variations in rainfall amounts. Those farm household with small land and small subsistence production produce low volumes of rice and incomes from rice, which sustain the household on a year-toyear basis. Therefore, they have limited capacity to cope with losses during the crop season. Also they have short chance to implement other activities to diversify their income sources. The high risk for farm households in Thailand to climate shocks is the higher food costs relative to farm income, lack of income diversification, little savings in the form of financial assets, livestock or food stores, and high debt relative to income (Leary et al., 2007). The MRC report for Thailand mentions some adaptation strategies that have been going on as The Royal Projects on agriculture to conduct studies, research and experimentation of plant and animal species suitable for the nature of the local areas. The Royal Projects plan to plant vetiver grass for topsoil preservation, the projects by the Ministry of Agriculture to promote agricultural product and market improvements, the projects by the Ministry of Agriculture to build capacity for local agricultural communities, the projects by the Ministry of Agriculture to research drought‐resistant plant and animal species, and the projects by the Ministry of 94
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change Agriculture to construct dams and irrigation systems. Also, farmers have traditionally implemented a number of practices to adapt to climate variability, for example intercropping, mixed cropping, agroforestry and animal husbandry. Moreover, over the years Thailand has adopted both surface water and groundwater irrigation and diversification in agriculture to deal with drought and structural or non‐structural measures to deal with flood and drought (MRC, 2009). Gaps Identified in Programmes and Studies There is a lack of studies about the most suitable species and varieties to face the changes in temperature and rainfall. The fact that different species have a unique capacity to endure heat means that it is essential to study individual species to find those that can best accommodate themselves to a changing climate (Boonprakrob and Hattirat, 2006), and therefore, to be sure that rural households can adapt to the changes that are already happening. A conservation plan is needed in order to conserve genes of wild species, as they possess characteristics that can overcome stress and enemies. On-going studies in Thailand on the impact of climate change on the Mekong river basin utilize one regional climate model incorporated with CERES crop model to predict the yields of a single variety of economically important crops such as rice, corn, sugar cane and cassava. Other climate change scenarios are necessary for such studies in order to apply appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. For livestock production, it is necessary to enhance understanding and to predict the future production of meat and dairy products under climate change conditions are needed. Recent Projects in the Agriculture and Food Security Sector The ADB has among its projects, the Climate Risk Management Assessment for Agriculture in Thailand and Viet Nam, which is a Small Grant for Adaptation Project. Its objectives are to identify and prioritize the sectors most ‘at risk’ and develop gender equitable agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies as an integral part of agricultural development. This will include innovations in agricultural institutions, crop and resource management, the role of women, social capital and social networks. It is expected to reach better adaptation to climate change with this project; government will be able to identify and prioritize areas most at risk and implement appropriate strategies to reduce risk and help farmers adapt. Another expected output is to get improved understanding of the climate variability and its impact on cropping patterns, structures of income and employment, and adaptation strategies (ADB, 2010) Oxfam is carrying out some projects in vulnerable areas on climate hazards. The report “Oxfam Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation Resources: Case <strong>Study</strong>, Jasmine Rice in the Weeping Plain: Adapting Rice Farming to Climate Change in Northeast Thailand” describes the action that it has been doing together with a local organization (Earth Net Foundation) since 2004, promoting organic agricultural production and fair-trade marketing with farmers in Yasothorn Province. The project also received support from START (Global Change Systems for Analysis, Research and Training), which provided technical input on climate-change issues and supervised/commented on the adaptation process, as well as training project extension officers to interpret weather forecasts. The project activities are: (i) provision of climatechange information to farmers; participatory decision making; (ii) provision of loans to project participants; (iii) implementation of on-farm watermanagement systems; (iv) farmers as catalysts for change in sharing knowledge and experience with other farmers; and (v) project monitoring and evaluation. And the key outcomes: (i) food security, (ii) reduced decline in rice production; (iii) diversity of crops; and (iv) on-farm water management systems. Socio-Economic Sector Range of Studies Reviewed and Methods Applied Snidvongs (2006) also makes a review of the vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies that can be found in Thailand related with agriculture but also with socio-economic aspects. The method applied to reach their results is based on field interview and group meeting with local stakeholders selected study sites, which are major rice farming areas; 560 households in Ubonratchathani Province (June-July, 2004) and 625 households in Kula Field (April- May, 2005) in Thailand. The collected data are mostly qualitative information and reflect the opinions and perspectives of the respondents. 95
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
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Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
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Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
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Jose, A. M. and N. A. Cruz (1999).
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Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
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