Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

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<strong>Desktop</strong> <strong>Study</strong> support of the government to establish more local networks in other 29 provinces (ADRC, 2008). The United Nations Environmental Programme has a regional project, in which Thailand is included, titled “Capacity Building to Integrate Disaster Risk Reduction into Coastal Zone Management”. The aim of the project is building DRR capacities of coastal zone managers for designing and implementation of projects that enhance the protection of lives while improving environmental quality. The project encompasses national (India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka) and regional (Maldives, Thailand, Seychelles) activities. Thailand stakeholders will be involved in the development of training manuals (comments) and participation at regional workshop. The partners involved are EC Aidco, ISDR (Funding) Mangroves for the Future (MFF) Secretariat, National Coordinating Bodies and National Disaster Management Organizations (NDMO). SUMMARY OF IDENTIFIED KEY GAPS, CONSTRAINTS AND CHALLENGES Although Thailand has 90 climate stations that meet WMO standards, the country needs to strengthen a network of climate stations to ensure weather forecasting capabilities that can be used for assessing climate change scenarios (Boonprakrob and Hattirat, 2006); limited work has been done to date on climate change predictions at a national level. Policies and measures concerning adaptation cannot be developed due to the lack of research and development. The adaptation options have been identify in general terms such as the development of genetic properties related to climate change, changes in agricultural practices, and aggressive water resources conservation. The main force in regard to vulnerability and adaptation is to improve research and development capacities in the mentioned areas (OEPP, 2000). The MRC report gathers a series of gaps and lack in policies, measures and actions that are being done in regard to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. There is still a lack in institutional strength, capability and availability of reliable data for generating climate scenarios. Although the emergence of threats because of changes in climate is encouraging the government, research institutes and universities to invest in climate change studies to provide technical knowledge in this area and to develop policies and economics, there are limitations in terms of the technical capacity of experts and sourcing of appropriate funding. There has been progress from private research and academic institutions with expertise that carry out climate change studies and predict scenarios and also international organizations are supporting governments and private institutions to carry out advanced climate change research and assess vulnerability and adaptation options. Furthermore, there is still a lack of baseline information to understand the interplay between natural and human systems and a gap in information on changes in climate and human systems in different ecosystems and agro‐climatic systems. The human dimension, especially livelihood aspects and intersectoral relationships have not been incorporated successfully on the national scale assessment. Without this for designing and planning adaptation policies, strategies and programs, decisions on adaptation will stay uncertain and will not conduct to effective results. Not only is important to understand the effects of climate change and associated enhanced climate variability at the local and national levels, also the capacity to select and apply appropriate methods and tools to prepare for adaptation in essential. In this sense, in Thailand there are several studies that apply GCMs to built future climate scenarios that, also, combined with specific-sector models provide valuable information about impact of climate change in the sectors reviewed in this report (water, agriculture and food security, and socio-economic sectors). The TEI for its country study on climate change uses three models, UK89, UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) and GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies). The Initial National Communication uses the scenarios created by the ECHAM4 GCM, elaborated by the Max Planck Institute, to analyze the impacts on water resources. The study on extreme hydrological events and changes in water resources elaborated by SEA START uses the regional climate scenario CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) developed by CSIRO in Australia; to study the impact of the climate changes on hydrological regime, the Variable Infiltration Capacity Hydrological Model is used and to study impacts on agriculture the DSSAT version 4.0. To study the impacts on the agricultural sector, the MRC and the Initial National Communication use four models, which are CSIRO global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model, HadCM2 model, 102
Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change ECHAM4 model and CCCMA’s First Generation Couple GCM. In the socio economic sector, SEA START report makes an evaluation of the impacts caused by climate change based on field interviews and group meetings; Dutta’s study, uses the surface and river components of the IISDHM model for flood inundation simulation and the AGENT-LUC Model (Anthropogenically Engineered Transformations of Land Use and Land Cover) for assessing the land use and land cover changes as result of the human activities. Related to this, should be included the development of technologies for adaptation; the use and integration of traditional knowledge for developing adaptation options; integration of local knowledge and scientific knowledge for technology transfer; and communication of vulnerability and adaptation both to vulnerable communities and policy makers are also essential. Last, there is a need to build awareness about the potential impacts of climate change amongst potentially affected people, and make stakeholders understand that they have to get involve in order to implement successfully measures on climate change adaptation. There is also a need to develop and disseminate good quality information. Systematic efforts are required to study the impact evaluation of different climatic parameters (MRC, 2009). The following is the compilation of the gaps found in the literature reviewed for water resources, agriculture and food security, socio economics and risk management. Water Sector In water sector there is an urgent need to study changes in the rainfall pattern in all the watershed areas by using more than three climate change scenarios, and to incorporate the results in the government management plans. Besides, there are few studies in Thailand using mathematical models to assess physical property of water resource (water flow conditions, element dispersion, sediment transfer and accumulation), for instance, to plan for water resource management; studies on biological diversity and the impacts of climate change on water resources and fresh water ecosystems using mathematical models need to be included (Boonprakrob and Hattirat, 2006). Agriculture and Food Security Sector There is a lack of studies about the most suitable species and varieties to face the changes in temperature and rainfall. The fact that different species have a unique capacity to endure heat means that it is essential to study individual species to find those that can best accommodate themselves to a changing climate (Boonprakrob and Hattirat, 2006), and therefore, to be sure that rural households can adapt to the changes that are already happening. A conservation plan is needed in order to conserve genes of wild species, as they possess characteristics that can overcome stress and enemies. On-going studies in Thailand on the impact of climate change on the Mekong river basin utilize one regional climate model incorporated with CERES crop model to predict the yields of a single variety of economically important crops such as rice, corn, sugar cane and cassava. Other climate change scenarios are necessary for such studies in order to apply appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. For livestock production, it is necessary to enhance understanding and to predict the future production of meat and dairy products under climate change conditions are needed. Socio-economic Sector In Thailand, as a developing country, the issue of climate change has been given little attention with a more reactive approach rather proactive one; specifically if it is compared to the development concerns such as poverty alleviation, economic growth and environmental degradation. But, climate change is strongly linked with economic activities central in modern societies: energy production and consumption, transportation, and so on. Therefore, it should not be dissociated from the fundamental concerns of human society, such as national economic planning, public administration and human development (Permpibul and Routray, 2009). Also, as has been seen in the studies reviewed, the role of community level measures has declined or been neglected for household level and national level (Snidvongs, 2006). Current responses to extreme climatic events are viewed more as disaster preparedness and mitigation opportunities rather than as warning signals of much needed long-term adaptation. Existing climate change models do not provide conclusive assessments of the associated impacts at local levels. Therefore there is a need for a bottom-up approach to address the level of vulnerability to the existing and future impacts to improve adaptation alt local level in the long- 103
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RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ON INDONESIA 69
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DPA DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP IN ACTI
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NSCCC NATIONAL STEERING COMMITTEE O
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FIGURE 19: PERCENTAGE OF DAMAGE (US
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Sout
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put in place management systems for
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There are several good initiatives
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Conclusion This study takes precede
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Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Nee
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Lao PDR has a tropical climate domi
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Viet Nam has a tropical monsoon cli
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Boer, R. (2009). A model for assess
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Jose, A. M. and N. A. Cruz (1999).
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Ne Winn. (2007). The status of GHG
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12/23/2009 from http://www.phnompen
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Secretariat AdaptationKnowledgePlat
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