Desktop Study on - Regional Climate Change Adaptation ...

Assessment of Capacity Gaps and Needs of South East Asia Countries
in Addressing Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change
Figure 10: Percentage of people affected
due to top 5 natural disasters:
1980-2009
Drought 0%
Figure 11: Percentage of people affected
due to total natural climatic
disasters: 1980-2009
Drought 9%
Flood 30%
Flood 32%
Storm 70%
Storm 59%
Figure 12: Percentage of damage (US$)
due to total natural disasters:
1980-2009
Drought 9%
Flood 37%
Storm 54%
change on coastal zones, the scenario of sea level rise
of 1m by 2100 was used. In the report, the potential
evapotranspiration was calculated using the
modified Penman formulae and the models RRMOD
and SSARR were used for calculating and assessing
the variation of annual run-off, low flow and flood
flow according to the respective scenarios. However,
this vulnerability and adaptation assessment is
largely qualitative, and hence, the results should
only be regarded as preliminary.
The Sea level rise scenarios for Viet Nam are done
by the MoNRE under the National Target Program
for climate change response. The methodology used
are MAGICC / SCENGE 5.3 software and statistical
downscaling methods and criteria: plausibility of
global climate change scenarios, level of details
of climate change scenarios, inheritability, local
appropriateness, completeness of scenarios and
possibility for self updates. To develop the climate
change scenarios, the study used three different
greenhouse emission scenarios, low emission
scenario, intermediate emission scenario of the
medium scenario group and intermediate emission
scenario of the high scenario group. Also, the
temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed
for seven different climate zones: North West, North
East, North Delta, North Central, South Central,
Central Highlands and South.
Some of the other studies reviewed are Trung’s study,
which focuses on the strategic plan for integrated
water resources management of the Vu Gia-Thu
basin organization (Trung, unknown): the Climate
Change and Human Development Report in Viet
Nam (Chaudry and Ruysschaert, 2007); the World
Bank series for environmental monitoring ‘Adapting
to Climate Change’; and the ADAPTS program about
adaptive water management at a local scale in Viet
Nam (My et al., 2008).
Impacts on the Water Sector
According to the Human Development Report
(Chaudry and Ruysschaert, 2007), the temperature
has been increasing 0.1°C per decade since 1990,
and is expected to increase from 1.4-1.5°C by 2050
and 2.5-2.8°C by 2100. As to rainfall, and compared
to changes recorded since 1990, it is expected to
increase in the rage 2.5 - 4.8% by 2050 and 4.7 -
8.8% by 2100, especially in Northern Viet Nam and
less in Southern plains.
The results described in the Sea Level Rise Scenarios
for Viet Nam gives a prediction for the medium
emission scenarios similar to the data described in
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