ghana climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment

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CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGEThe climate of West Africa is subject to considerable spatial and temporal variability. This variability is linkedto variations in the movement and intensity of the ITCZ as well as variations in the timing and intensity ofthe West African Monsoon. The most documented cause of these variations on an inter-annual timescale isthe El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The West African Monsoon is influenced either during thedeveloping phase of ENSO or during the decay of some long-lasting La Niña events. In general, El Niño isconnected to below normal rainfall in West Africa.When assessing climate change, it is important to note that it will affect regions of Ghana differently. Inaddition, predictions from climate models can vary significantly. Information derived from any model mustbe used judiciously, being cognizant of the uncertainty inherent in these tools. Specifically for Ghana,although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) agree generally that mean temperatures will rise, little agreementexists on future precipitation amounts or seasonality; some GCMs project increased precipitation in thenorthern three regions and others project decreases.All climate projections through the 21 st century we examined, including our own analysis, indicated increasingtemperatures across Ghana. For example, across most ecological zones of Ghana, dry season meantemperatures are projected to rise by about 1.5 to 2.0 o C to about 3 o C by 2080. Because of the complexity ofcorrectly reproducing a number of key features of the atmospheric circulation patterns over West Africa,projections of rainfall by climate models are mixed and uncertain.. Our ensemble modeling projections ofrainfall among seven representative meteorological stations also gave mixed and inconclusive results, lackingconsistency and predicting decreases and increases in rainfall across stations. The results are summarized foreach station as follows:Accra (Coastal Savanna Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation ranged from 52 percentdecreases to 44 percent increases in wet season rainfall by 2080. The variability among the models'precipitation changes is not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced inthe region.Kumasi (Deciduous Forest Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation range from 48 percentdecreases to 45 percent increases in wet season rainfall by 2080. The variability among the models'precipitation changes is not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced inthe region. The A2 scenario, which generally shows the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) impact,predicts the weakest increase in wet season rainfall, 1.13 percent.Tarkwa (Rain Forest Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation range from 45 percent decreasesto 31 percent increases in wet season rainfall. The variability among the models' precipitation changesis not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced in the region. Techiman (Forest-Savanna Transition Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation range from 46percent decreases to 36 percent increases in wet season rainfall. The variability among the models'precipitation changes is not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced inthe region. The A2 scenario, which generally shows the largest GHG impact, predicts the largestdecrease in wet season rainfall, -2.94 percent.Tamale (Guinea Savanna Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation range from 36 percentdecreases to 32 percent increases in wet season rainfall. The variability among the models'precipitation changes is not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced inthe region. The Northern Region where Tamale is located is the southern-most region in Ghana toshow a consistent trend toward decreased rainfall. Walembelle (northern Guinea Savanna Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation range from 25percent decreases to 24 percent increases in wet season rainfall. The variability among the models'2 GHANA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
precipitation changes is not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced inthe region.Bawku (Sudan Savanna Zone): Forecasted changes in precipitation range from 28 percentdecreases to 30 percent increases in wet season rainfall. The variability among the models'precipitation changes is not very different from the inter-annual variability currently experienced inthe region.Projections also indicate sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters with potential negativeimplications for the dynamic and critical link between timing and intensity of the coastal upwelling and fisheryproductivity. Associated in part with sea temperature increases is sea-level rise which is also projected to risefrom 0.13-0.60 m by the late 21 st century, depending on development scenarios modeled.UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE PROJECTIONSThese results illustrate the uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for future precipitation.Climate science is an expanding field and more reliable projections of future climate should become availablesoon. Improved methods exist now in terms of more realistically modeling current climate at scales useful fordecision-making, suggesting that improved projections of future climate are available. Even so, uncertaintyremains because these dynamically down-scaled regional climate models begin with the boundary conditionsset by the global circulation models. Government agencies, NGOs, and CSOs in Ghana seem to have littleaccess to detailed climate projections and seemingly little understanding of the uncertainties surroundingprojections. Tools to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture are critical components of povertyreduction programs.Modeling is best tempered with observation and experience. Northern Ghana has the highest poverty levelsin the country and is also where temperatures are hottest, rainfall is low and there is only one rainy season.The actual experience of people interviewed during our field visit to the north reported delays in the onset ofthe rainy season, heavier rains late in the rainy season, and increased flooding, causing crop damage. Theexperience of our interviewees is congruent with observed trends of decreasing rainfall and increasingtemperatures in the last several decades. These factors combine to make the north the most vulnerable regionof Ghana to adverse affects from climate change.CLIMATE POLICY FRAMEWORKResponsibility for developing, coordinating, and implementing Ghana’s climate policy is understandablydispersed among several agencies. The Environment and Natural Resources Advisory Council (ENRAC)operates at the Cabinet level and is in place to coordinate among ministries. Within ministries with climaterelatedresponsibilities, there are coordinating and consultative activities. For example, a Carbon Credit PolicyCommittee operates in the Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology (MEST) to clearly define rulesand procedures affecting carbon credit generating activities, allocation of carbon rights, and participation insub-national carbon activities. The Environmental Protection Agency within MEST is responsible fordeveloping national climate change policy and integrating priorities into sectoral plans. The National ClimateChange Coordinator is located within the Energy Resource and Climate Change Unit of the EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA).The MEST developed a list of 55 actions and policies the Government of Ghana (GoG) could take to reduceGHG emissions. These Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) were appended to Ghana’ssubmission to the Copenhagen Accord. Most NAMAs align with development priorities in the Ghana SharedGrowth and Development Agenda 2010 (GSGDA), and most are energy-related but do not specificallymention biofuels, other than waste as renewable sources, and do not mention woodlots to meet communitycooking needs. Eight of the 55 NAMAs address land use, land use change, and forestry, including sustainableforest management, REDD+, plantation development, and rehabilitation of degraded lands. The NAMAs aremostly broad statements without implementation details, cost estimates, likely funding sources or priorities.GHANA CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT 3
Page 1 and 2: GHANA CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY A
Page 3: GHANACLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY AN
Page 7 and 8: ACRONYMSCAADPCBOCCCDCSCEACEPFCFMCIC
Page 9: NGONCRCNREGNRMNTFPPAPAMSCPPGRCRAMSA
Page 13: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCountries in Afric
Page 17 and 18: AGRICULTURE AND LIVELIHOODSAgricult
Page 19 and 20: would include concentrating access
Page 21 and 22: of transparency pervade the current
Page 23 and 24: alternate energy sources (i.e., fos
Page 25 and 26: affecting carbon sequestration. Adv
Page 27 and 28: Information and analysis needs for
Page 29 and 30: 1. INTRODUCTIONThe West African cou
Page 31: ABFigure 2.1 Two approaches to vuln
Page 35 and 36: Mean Annual Temperature (C)2928.528
Page 37 and 38: The UNDP-NSCP country-level climate
Page 39 and 40: For most eco-climatic zones, five-y
Page 41 and 42: increases generally were projected
Page 43 and 44: Table 3.2 Potential change in tempe
Page 45 and 46: parameter (temperature and precipit
Page 47 and 48: emission scenarios gives a decrease
Page 49 and 50: of finance and economic planning, f
Page 51 and 52: indigenous people and more recently
Page 53 and 54: Phase 1 REDD ReadinessConsultations
Page 55 and 56: SC. A New National Plantation Devel
Page 57 and 58: to be developed that provide rigoro
Page 59 and 60: LandownerTable 4.1 Land Ownership i
Page 61 and 62: ProblemTable 4.2 Problems Associate
Page 63 and 64: TENURE CONSIDERATIONS IN LIGHT OF C
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the south of the Ashanti Uplands re
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Figure 5.1 Ecological Zones of Ghan
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North latitude. Minia (2008) deline
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Table 5.1 Percentage of producer ho
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over a longer period. With the risk
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LAND SUITABILITYThe CSIR-Soil Resea
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Table 5.3 Crop Suitability by Soil
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MAJOR CROPSMAIZEMaize is the most i
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Source: Chamberlin, 2007, Figure 13
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Total area(ha)MangroveswampTable 5.
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Source: Chamberlin, 2007Figure 5.6
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Farmers who depend on annual rains
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Adjusting timing ofirrigationPricin
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Transportation networkChanging Crop
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Lower world food pricesAttitudes to
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POPULATION AND ECONOMYGhana contain
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Ghana is comprised of crop and live
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URBAN VERSES RURAL LIVELIHOODS 3Liv
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income; non-farm related enterprise
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6. VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE CHANGETh
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DESERTIFICATION“Desertification
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In the National Action Plan to Comb
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significantly recovered by the late
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Source: Reich etal., 2001Figure 6.2
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Source: US Geological Survey, (http
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Two other proximate causes of defor
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extreme, fire is essential in fire-
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gill nets constructed from traditio
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upwelling strength) involved in reg
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completely dominate trawl catches b
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have increased substantially due to
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CategoryFishing effort andtechnolog
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(Binet, 1995). Even if the declinin
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METHODSAs described above, to asses
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Indicator DescriptionDistance fromd
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Indicator DescriptionUnimproveddrin
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lowest vulnerability of any distric
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Table 7.2 Social Vulnerability Inde
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Table 7.5 Incidence of poverty (per
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Table 7.6 Ghana District Names, Ref
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Figure 7.4 Percentage of district p
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Figure 7.6 Percentage of female-hea
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Figure 7.8 Percentage of the Distri
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Figure 7.10 Percentage of District
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Figure 7.12 Percentage of District
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Figure 7.14 Percentage of total Dis
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people residing in thesee regions a
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CASE STUDY: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATI
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from friends and family to get by d
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CASE STUDY: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATI
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At Mole National Park, managers exp
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ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE N
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(interview). An opportunity exists
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Upper West Region, 69.8 percent of
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Brong-Ahafo Region that entails ref
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Ghana Limited, 2009). Given the con
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positive impacts, and has upset com
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Basin (total area 416,382km 2 ) lie
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effect. In the drier scenario, the
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Communities are, rightly or wrongly
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carbon sequestration and maintenanc
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Information and analysis needs for
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Table 11.1 Options for intervention
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Barriers toAdaptation andMitigation
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Amanor, K.S. 2001. Share contracts
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Braimoh, A. and P. Vlek (2006). "So
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Energy Commission. 2005. Strategic
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Gyau-Boakye P., and Tumbulto J.W. 2
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Koranteng, K.A. 1995. The Ghanaian
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MSE (Ministry of Science and Agricu
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Rubin, J.A.; Gordon, C.; Amatekpor,
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Wagner, M.R. and Cobbinah, J.R., 19
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Date Organization Interviewee Posit
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APPENDIX 2. TEAM MEMBERSName Role B
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DP - contact person Activity Object
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OrganizationNameInstitutional objec
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APPENDIX 5. SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATUR
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e. RAIN FOREST ZONEBaseline Mean Te
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Aug 191.5 16 12.0 -0.1 -0.5 -1.0 19
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Feb 25.6 3 9.4 -9.1 -29.7 -58.9 23.
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c. TRANSITIONAL ZONEBaseline Mean T
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APPENDIX 8. SCENARIOS OF CHANGES IN
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d. DECIDUOUS FOREST ZONEBaseline Me
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APPENDIX 9. SCENARIOS OF MEAN SEA S
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U.S. Agency for International Devel
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