ghana climate change vulnerability and adaptation assessment

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TABLE OF CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ··········································································· IXEXECUTIVE SUMMARY ··············································································· 1Climate Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 1Climate Variability and Change ....................................................................................................................... 2Uncertainty of Climate Projections ................................................................................................................ 3Climate Policy Framework ............................................................................................................................... 3Agriculture and Livelihoods ............................................................................................................................. 5Ecological Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................................... 7Social Vulnerability ............................................................................................................................................. 8Adaptation ............................................................................................................................................................ 9Energy Sector..................................................................................................................................................... 10Northern Savanna Case Study ....................................................................................................................... 11Mainstreaming Climate Change ..................................................................................................................... 12New Interventions for USAID Programming ............................................................................................. 151. INTRODUCTION ·············································································· 172. APPROACH ······················································································ 183. GHANA’S CLIMATE AND PROJECTED CHANGES ······························ 20General Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 20Climate Trends and Modeled Climate Change: Sources ........................................................................ 24Recent Climate Trends ................................................................................................................................... 26Climate Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................. 274. CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY FRAMEWORK ········································ 36Climate Change Activities in Ghana ............................................................................................................. 36REDD+ Policy Framework ............................................................................................................................. 37Land Tenure in Ghana ..................................................................................................................................... 455. PHYSIOGRAPHY, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, AND LIVELIHOODS ············ 52Physiographic Zones ........................................................................................................................................ 52Ecological Zones ............................................................................................................................................... 53Agriculture .......................................................................................................................................................... 58Population and Economy ................................................................................................................................ 83Crop production ............................................................................................................................................... 85Livestock rearing ............................................................................................................................................... 85Fisheries .............................................................................................................................................................. 86Urban Verses Rural Livelihoods .................................................................................................................... 87Rural Livelihoods on the Coast ..................................................................................................................... 88Rural Livelihoods in the Forest ..................................................................................................................... 88Rural Livelihoods in the Savanna ................................................................................................................... 896. VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE ··········································· 91Natural Systems Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................ 917. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GHANA ··········· 118Defining and Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate Change .......................................................... 118
Page 1 and 2: GHANA CLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY A
Page 3: GHANACLIMATE CHANGEVULNERABILITY AN
Page 8 and 9: FRFSDFtFFYGCMsGDPGEFGFTNGoGGPRSGSBA
Page 11: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThe team would like
Page 14 and 15: CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGEThe c
Page 16 and 17: Ghana is at the forefront of pilot
Page 18 and 19: crop fallow would have to be accomp
Page 20 and 21: Estimates of forest cover in Ghana
Page 22 and 23: nations in that it is politically s
Page 24 and 25: approaches to identifying climate c
Page 26 and 27: Given a declining fishery and the t
Page 28 and 29: current capacity will likely dimini
Page 30 and 31: 2. APPROACHThis Climate Change Asse
Page 34 and 35: Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)Mean
Page 36 and 37: Mean Temperature (C)34323028262422J
Page 38 and 39: RECENT CLIMATE TRENDSTEMPERATURESin
Page 40 and 41: use of an ensemble of models helps
Page 42 and 43: Table 3.1 Potential change in tempe
Page 44 and 45: parameter (temperature and precipit
Page 46 and 47: in January through June rainfall an
Page 48 and 49: 4. CLIMATE CHANGEPOLICY FRAMEWORKCL
Page 50 and 51: Source: LittleREDD Book, 2009Figure
Page 52 and 53: Environment and Natural Resources A
Page 54 and 55:
Forestry Commission offices outside
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provides for periodic review and pr
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determining the ways in which land,
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agreements are more fluid. Migrants
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of credit or attract potential inve
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5. PHYSIOGRAPHY,ECOLOGICAL ZONES, A
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extend into the forest zone. Of the
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600-800 mm per year, Jennik and Hal
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AGRICULTUREAgriculture dominates th
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Source: Chamberlin, 2007Figure 5. 2
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Table 5.2 Cropping Systems in Ghana
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Source: CSIR-Soil Research Institut
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S4a Cashew, sunflower, mango, jatro
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Source: Chamberlin, 2007, Figure12F
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RICEOverall rice yields in sub-Saha
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however, many valuable timber trees
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al. 2007; Challinor, Ewert et al. 2
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Table 5.6 Matrix of climate change
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production strategiesChanging marke
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impactsEfficient Water UseImproving
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Source: Kurukulasuriya and Rosentha
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Figure 5.7 Ghana Population Density
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FISHERIESIn Ghana, the fisheries se
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In terms of employment, three major
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high yields enjoyed in the south of
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For our purposes, we examine how cl
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Table 6.2 Values of aridity index,
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Key issueDeforestationBushfiresOver
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Source: P.F. Reich, S.T. Numbem, R.
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eserves include areas in the Forest
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of the off-reserve land was largely
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the products for commercial use (Ma
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one of its natural characteristics.
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Tuna fleet: The tuna fleet is commo
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Sources: FISHSTAT, FAO, and Marine
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epresentss a doubling of effective
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Source: Finegold et al., 2010Figure
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The potential impacts of increased
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7. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE C
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Indicator DescriptionAbility to sur
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Indicator DescriptionData source an
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RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONThe final sec
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Examination of the average district
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Region Area (km 2 )Table 7.3 Popula
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REFERENCE AND INDICATOR MAPS 5(see
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Table 7.7 Ghana District Names, Alp
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Figure 7.5 Percent of district popu
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Figure 7.7 Percentage of children 0
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Figure 7.9 Percentage of District h
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Figure 7.11 Percentage of District
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Figure 7.13 Percentage of District
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8. ADAPTING TO CLIMATECHANGE IN GHA
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Source: 2000 Population and Housing
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local residents and as depositories
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(CRC, 2010). Despite these efforts
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PERCEPTIONS OFCLIMATE CHANGE AND IT
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households depend on a combination
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Changes in agricultural practicesLi
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irrigation development can be imple
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9. CLIMATE CHANGEMITIGATION IN GHAN
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that flaringwill be short-term, min
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10. ENERGY SECTORSOCIAL IMPACTS OF
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projected to be the firstor most af
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Water balance models indicate for t
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apidly. In contrast, Ghana’s prim
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11. OPTIONS FOR USAIDPROGRAMMINGMAI
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Given a declining fishery and the t
Page 188 and 189:
neighboring countries expand their
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Barriers toAdaptation andMitigation
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Page 194 and 195:
Page 196 and 197:
12. LITERATURE CITEDAbugre, S. and
Page 198 and 199:
Bard, F.X. and N.Y.N. Goran. 2001.
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Daniel, S. (2011). Land Grabbing an
Page 202 and 203:
Ghana Forestry Commission. 2011. Pe
Page 204 and 205:
IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Th
Page 206 and 207:
Lemoalle, J., and D. de Condappa. 2
Page 208 and 209:
Pauly, D., V. Christensen, J. Dalsg
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Tsidzi, K. E. N., and N. K. Kumaple
Page 212 and 213:
APPENDIX 1. TEAM ITINERARY AND CONT
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Date Organization Interviewee Posit
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Page 218 and 219:
Page 220 and 221:
APPENDIX 3. MATRIX OF CLIMATE CHANG
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DP - contact person Activity Object
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Page 226 and 227:
Page 228 and 229:
APPENDIX 4. TABLE OF POTENTIAL COLL
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OrganizationNameInstitutional objec
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Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
Page 238 and 239:
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
c. TRANSITIONAL ZONEBaseline Mean T
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APPENDIX 6. SCENARIOS OF CHANGES IN
Page 246 and 247:
May 169.4 13 13.2 -4.4 -25.8 -28.4
Page 248 and 249:
APPENDIX 7. SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATUR
Page 250 and 251:
Apr 30.9 24.2 27.6 1.0 3.1 6.4 28.6
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Apr 81.9 8 10.2 -6.0 -19.8 -40.0 77
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Jul 211.7 1.5 14.4 -1.2 -3.8 -7.6 2
Page 256:
APPENDIX 10. SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL
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