Evaluation of the Ticket to Work Program, Implementation ...

11Figure II.3.Participation Rates, by Months Since Rollout Start and Provider Type1.0%0.9%0.8%0.7%SVRA Phase 10.6%0.5%0.4%SVRA Phase 20.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%EN Phase 1EN Phase 20 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Months Since Rollout StartSource: January 2005 extract from SSA’s Disability Control File.Holding months since the beginning of the rollout constant, we would expect theparticipation rate to be lower in Phase 2 states than in Phase 1 states because the Phase 2rollout was more gradual; on average, beneficiaries in Phase 2 states received their Ticketslater in their rollout than did beneficiaries in Phase 1 states. If that were the only reason forthe difference between the SVRA rates in the two phases, we would expect the difference toeventually diminish after month 11 when the initial mailings for Phase 2 were completed.Instead, the difference appears to have become wider over the last few months we canobserve.Statistics on first assignments (i.e., number of beneficiaries who assign their Ticket forthe first time) by provider type make it more apparent that the gap between assignments atthe Phase 1 and Phase 2 SVRAs is not likely to narrow soon, because first assignments atPhase 2 SVRAs have already dropped to the same level as those at Phase 1 SVRAs (FigureII.4). First assignments at Phase 2 SVRAs were initially lower than at Phase 1 SVRAs, andthey peaked later, reflecting the more gradual Ticket mailing schedule. The decline of firstassignments at Phase 2 SVRAs from month 9 to month 16 looks remarkably similar to thedecline in Phase 1 states from month 17 to month 25. Because the Phase 2 rollout began 9months after the Phase 1 rollout, these two periods are essentially contemporaneous (i.e., thesame calendar months).II: Beneficiary Participation in Ticket to Work