Evaluation of the Ticket to Work Program, Implementation ...

62Figure IV.6. Average Monthly Benefit of Phase 1 Ticket Recipients, by Ticket Assignment(Eligible for TTW on 1/12/2002)$900$850$800$750$700$650$600$550$500DI-12-10-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 101214Months Since Ticket Was MailedAssigned Ticket$900$850$800$750$700$650$600$550$500Did Not Assign TicketSSI-12-10-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 101214Months Since Ticket Was MailedAfter the mail month, the average disability benefit received by TTW participants fellrelative to that received by nonparticipants for beneficiaries in both programs. For DIbeneficiaries, the ratio of the average benefit received by Ticket participants to that receivedby nonparticipants was 92 percent in the mail month. Fifteen months later, it was slightlysmaller—91 percent. For SSI beneficiaries over the same period, the sign of the participantnonparticipantdifference in average benefits changed from positive to negative as thebenefit ratio fell from 103 percent to 98 percent. These results, particularly those for SSIbeneficiaries, are consistent with, but not firm evidence of, TTW having helped to lowerdisability benefits.D. SUMMARY OF FINDINGSThis chapter has presented preliminary findings regarding three key outcomes fordisability beneficiaries in Phase 1 states who were eligible for TTW on January 12, 2002.The findings are based on data for TTW participants and nonparticipants in the 12 monthsbefore and up to 15 months after Tickets were mailed to these individuals. For SSIbeneficiaries, differences in the participant-nonparticipant gaps in the outcome measuresbefore and after Tickets were mailed are what we would expect if the new program hadhelped to increase employment and program exit to some extent. They suggest that TTWmay have slightly increased the proportion of SSI beneficiaries who receive zero benefits andwho combine zero benefits with substantial employment, and slightly decreased the averagebenefit amount. For DI beneficiaries, relative rates of growth in the outcome measuresduring the postmailing period for participants compared with nonparticipants provideweaker evidence that is consistent with the TTW’s intended effects.These findings are tenuous for several reasons. Most importantly, we know from thesurvey results presented in Chapter III that many TTW participants are motivated to becomeIV: Early Outcomes for Ticket Recipients