Evaluation of the Ticket to Work Program, Implementation ...

58situation described in the preceding paragraph for SSI participants. The small, gradualincrease in the average benefit received by DI participants probably reflects the functionalrelationship of DI benefits (but not SSI benefits) to recipients’ past earnings. We knowfrom Figure IV.2 that some DI recipients had substantial earnings shortly before the Ticketmail month. After those earnings were posted to their accounts, those recipients may havequalified for higher DI benefits.C. OUTCOMES BY PROGRAM AND TTW PARTICIPATION STATUSThis section compares outcomes for Ticket recipients in Phase 1 states who participatedin TTW by assigning their Tickets to ENs or SVRAs with outcomes for recipients who didnot participate. These outcome measures were introduced and discussed in the precedingtwo sections—zero benefit status, zero benefits in combination with substantialemployment, and the disability benefit amount. Readers are cautioned not to interpret participantnonparticipantdifferences in these measures after Tickets were mailed as estimates of the impacts of TTW.Some, perhaps even all, of the differences might have existed even if the Tickets had neverbeen mailed. In particular, participants may be more capable of working and more inclinedthan nonparticipants to seek substantial employment, creating more favorable outcomes forparticipants both before and after Tickets were mailed. For example, TTW participants whoresponded to our survey of beneficiaries were much more likely than nonparticipants toreport that they expected to earn their way off the disability rolls (refer to Figure III.15 in theprevious chapter). Further, recipients who would have entered employment and left therolls even if they had never been mailed a Ticket are likely to find it advantageous to assigntheir Ticket because in doing so, they can obtain useful assistance or even cash (if, forexample, they assign it to an EN with policies like those of AAA TakeCharge). 12Subsequent evaluation reports will attempt to sort out the various factors shapingbeneficiary outcomes and to estimate the impacts due to TTW. We will consider not onlythe actual outcomes of Ticket recipients but also their likely outcomes in the absence ofTTW. The true impacts of TTW will be assessed by comparing those two sets of outcomes.1. Analysis ApproachOur approach to the analysis of each of the three outcome measures was to comparelevels and trends of Ticket participants and nonparticipants. We began by looking at the twogroups before Tickets were mailed to see if they differed in pre-TTW outcome levels. Wethen looked for differences after mailing. Of particular note are postmailing differencesbetween Ticket participants and nonparticipants in outcome levels that do not have the samesign as the premailing differences or that are substantially different in magnitude. Ifindividuals were transitioning on and off the benefit rolls for similar reasons (into and out ofemployment, for example) before and after Tickets were mailed, then these differences maybe suggestive of TTW’s impact. Postmailing differences between the two groups in12See Thornton et al. (2004), page 89, for a description of AAA TakeCharge.IV: Early Outcomes for Ticket Recipients