Edition

IFTA JOURNAL
2017 EDITION
4. What is the rate of the profits in the case of accessing the
target levels? The overall rate of profits for the cases that
have accessed the target levels is equal to 8.05%.
5. What is the rate of the losses in the case of activating the
stop loss? The overall rate of losses for the cases that failed
to access the target levels is equal to -4.05%.
6. What is the average time period to access the target levels?
The overall average of the time period to access the target
levels is approximately equal to 23 trading days.
7. What is the average of time period to closing below or above
the stop loss and failure to access one of the target levels?
The overall average of the time period to closing below or
above the stop loss and failure of accessing the target levels
is approximately equal to nine trading days.
8. What are the most effective mathematical equations and the
most effective cases to calculate the target levels of Japanese
candlestick patterns by using patterns confirmation filters?
By comparing the rate of risk/reward ratio, as in Table 2, it
shows that the 23.6% target level achieved a profit rate less
than the loss rate! Therefore, this equation is considered
ineffective. When it excluded the target level of 23.6%, the
overall rate of success in accessing the target levels of 100%
and 61.8% and 50% and 38.6% is equal to 70.86%, and the
failure rate is equal to 29.14%.
Table 3 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain
four candles inside filters was 2,720 cases, which is equivalent
to the rate of 36.36% of the total cases of the study. Further,
the table shows the target levels of 23.6% and 38.2% and 50%
achieved a profit rate less than the loss rate! Therefore, these
equations are considered ineffective. When excluding the target
levels of 23.6% and 38.2% and 50%, the overall rate of success in
accessing the target levels of 100% and 61.8% is equal to 62.13%,
and the failure rate is equal to 37.87%.
Table 4 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain five
candles inside filters was 1,774 cases, which is equivalent to the
rate of 23.71% of the total cases of the study. Further, the table
shows the target levels of 23.6% and 38.2% achieved a profit rate
less than loss rate! Therefore, these equations are considered
ineffective. When excluding the target levels of 23.6% and
38.2%, the overall rate of success in accessing the target levels
of 100% and 61.8% and 50% is equal to 60.26%, and the failure
rate is equal to 39.74%.
Table 5 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain six
candles inside filters was 1,129 cases, which is equivalent to the
rate of 15.09% of the total cases of the study. Further, the table
shows the target level of 23.6% achieved a profit rate less than
loss rate! Therefore, this equation is considered ineffective.
When excluding the target level of 23.6%, the overall rate of
success in accessing the target levels of 100% and 61.8% and
50% and 38.2% is equal to 61.38%, and the failure rate is equal to
38.62%.
Table 6 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain
seven candles inside filters was 730 cases, which is equivalent
to the rate of 9.76% of the total cases of the study. Further, the
table shows the target level of 23.6% achieved a profit rate less
than loss rate! Therefore, this equation is considered ineffective.
When excluding the target level of 23.6%, the overall rate of
success in accessing the target levels of 100% and 61.8% and
50% and 38.2% is equal to 58.91%, and the failure rate is equal to
41.09%.
Table 7 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain
eight candles inside filters was 530 cases, which is equivalent
to the rate of 7.08% of the total cases of the study. Further,
the table shows the target level of 23.6% achieved a profit
rate less than loss rate! Therefore, this equation is considered
ineffective. When excluding the target level of 23.6%, the overall
rate of success in accessing the target levels of 100% and 61.8%
and 50% and 38.2% is equal to 45.66%, and the failure rate is
equal to 54.34%.
Table 8 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain
nine candles inside filters was 352 cases, which is equivalent to
the rate of 4.71% of the total cases of the study. Further, the table
shows the target level of 23.6% achieved a profit rate less than
loss rate! Therefore, this equation is considered ineffective.
When excluding the target level of 23.6%, the overall rate of
success in accessing the target levels of 100% and 61.8% and
50% and 38.2% is equal to 47.73%, and the failure rate is equal to
52.28%.
Table 9 shows that the frequency of the cases that contain 10
candles inside filters was 246 cases, which is equivalent to the
rate of 3.29% of the total cases of the study. Further, the table
shows that the overall rate of success in accessing to the target
levels of 100% and 61.8% and 50% and 38.2% and 23.6% is equal
to 61.38%, with the profit rate ranging from +5.43% to +32.07%.
On the other hand, the failure rate to access one of these levels is
equal to 38.62%, with loss rate ranging from -3.93% to -4.02%.
Based on the above discussion of the results, and after
excluding the target level of 23.6%, it is clear that the order of
the most effective cases based on the number of candles inside
filters, in terms of success rate to access one of the target levels,
is as follows:
1. Cases that contain four candles inside filters: where the
success rate to access one of target levels was 62.13%.
2. Cases that contain six candles inside filters: where the
success rate to access one of target levels was 61.38%.
3. Cases that contain 10 candles inside filters: where the
success rate to access one of target levels was 61.38%.
4. Cases that contain five candles inside filters: where the
success rate to access one of target levels was 60.26%.
5. Cases that contain seven candles inside filters: where the
success rate to access one of target levels was 58.91%.
Based on the above discussion of the results and as shown in
Table 2, after excluding the target level of 23.6%, it is clear that
the order of the most effective mathematical equations based
on the overall rate of access to the target levels of 100% and 61.8
and 50% and 38.2% is as follows:
1. The target level of 100%: where the total ratio to access this
target level was 31.69%, with an average profit of +13.22%.
2. The target level of 61.8%: where the total ratio to access this
target level was 16.78%, with an average profit of +7.67%.
3. The target level of 38.2%: where the total ratio to access this
target level was 12.71%, with an average profit of +4.16%.
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