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72 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity foreign economic and/or military assistance. A map focused on rivers and coastal areas likely to be affected most by climate change is shown in Figure 3.4. Areas already rife with conflict in Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia show the greatest vulnerabilities. Climate change will likely be a multiplier of stress and instability in these and other regions. As a diplomatic problem, regardless of its ideology, the next administration can expect to face continuing pressure to give more international climate aid, both because the poorest countries are least responsible for high emissions but often most vulnerable to a shifting climate, and because the United States may have military, counterterrorism, or other important interests in precisely these regions. Above all, however, climate change poses an enormous challenge to policymakers required to make irreversible decisions amid conditions of deep uncertainty. There is a huge range in the alternative scenarios for global temperature increase and an even more staggering range of estimates about how much damage might ensue. All of these factors make climate change a quintessentially difficult challenge of risk management. A recent meta-analysis provides a concise summary of the wide range of cost projections contained in the 2015 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. 75 It estimated that action to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius (C) could cost anywhere from a few tenths of a percent to more than 10 percent of gross world product (GWP) per capita by 2100. For perspective, the growth rate of GWP over the last ten years for developed economies has been as high as 3.1 percent in 2010 and as low as –3.4 percent in 2009. 76 Even excluding other factors, the World Bank has estimated that water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, 75 Laurent Drouet, Valentina Bosetti, and Massimo Tavoni, “Selection of Climate Policies Under the Uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, February 2015. 76 International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2016b.
Figure 3.4 Map of Climate Change Hot Spots NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ARCTIC OCEAN SOURCE: International Rivers, “Map of Climate Change Hotspots,” (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 US) with author overlay, undated. RAND RR1631-3.4 Europe Africa INDIAN OCEAN Asia Australia PACIFIC OCEAN North America South America ATLANTIC OCEAN Droughts, high temperatures Glacial melt, risk of glacial lake outburst floods Floods, coastal storms, and rising sea levels Indicates key areas where multiple climate change impacts or climate-related activities are occurring Is the World Falling Apart (And How Would We Know)? 73
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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Page 71 and 72: Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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Page 109 and 110: CHAPTER FOUR Leveraging U.S. Streng
Page 111 and 112: Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing
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Part Two Strategic Choices
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CHAPTER EIGHT Option II: “The Ind
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Option II: “The Indispensable Nat
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CHAPTER NINE Option III: “Agile A
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Option III: “Agile America”: Ad
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CODA The Challenge of Leadership: A
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The Challenge of Leadership: Aligni
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