STRATEGIC

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194 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity and education reforms in order to qualify for aid from the U.S. Millennium Challenge Corporation, 16 suggesting that aid contingent on positive policy steps—in other words, aid as a form of smart power—can be effective. The U.S. ability to inflict financial pain on its adversaries is substantial. This ability is multiplied when it acts in close coordination with the EU and other partner governments. Unilateral U.S. sanctions are generally seen as harming Americans more than their targets. However, the use of economic coercion as an alternative to the use of military power is growing. Some argue that Russia has already been adequately deterred from further aggression in Ukraine by the adoption of tough, coordinated U.S.–EU sanctions. Others note that sanctions always take a great deal of time to bite, during which time the adversary may have scored large gains. Moreover, overuse of sanctions could incentivize nations to pursue financial arrangements outside the U.S.-led international system. The next President and Congress might expand efforts by the Treasury to devise even smarter sanctions. 17 Russia Assumptions Europe is ultimately responsible for defending itself against Russia militarily, with assistance from the United States, but Europe and the United States must make common cause to counter Putin’s assault on international human rights norms and the promotion of authoritarianism. As in the earlier “restraint” posture, a global growth strategy concept would expect the United States would join forces with NATO and the EU to confront Moscow but expect its European partners, 16 However, it hasn’t moved the needle on political rights and civil liberties. Bradley C. Parks and Zachary J. Rice, “Does the ‘MCC Effect’ Exist? Results from the 2012 MCA Stakeholder Survey,” MCA Monitor, Center for Global Development, February 2013. For an overview of the aid effectiveness issue, see Shatz, 2016, pp. 112–117. 17 Juan Zarate, “Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare,” Public Affairs, New York, 2013.
Option III: “Agile America”: Adapt and Compete in a Changing World 195 especially Germany, to lead. The goal would be to wait out Putin while focusing on ways to squeeze the Russian Federation budget and the foreign business dealings of the inner circle of oligarchs. Such a strategy would take time to achieve results, but time is on the West’s side—as long as EU and U.S. sanctions can be maintained. China Assumptions China cannot be “contained;” the United States must do a better job of competing with it, while maintaining a viable and coherent security framework in East Asia. The overall assessment of China does not differ under this option from that under the previous “Indispensable Nation” posture. Both would aim to anchor China not only in the global economy but also in the liberal international order, while finding ways to place appropriate checks on the exercise of its growing military power. However, this option would recognize a strong U.S. interest in continuing robust trade with China, the substantial investment that U.S. companies have already made in that market, and China’s growing global financial power. It would therefore prioritize fair trade, full access to Chinese markets, the protection of U.S. intellectual property rights, and the development of Chinese rule of law, particularly its judicial system. Rather than engage in a futile attempt to “contain” China, the United States would try to bind it ever more closely into the international economy and trading system, including supporting Chinese plans to internationalize the renminbi. China’s rise to dominance seems less inevitable today than it did even a few short years ago. Indeed, our late colleague Charles Wolf suggested that the right question to pose is not when but whether China will surpass the United States in GDP. Manufacturing jobs in China may move to countries with lower labor costs, including U.S. partners. Already, Foxconn, which makes the iPhone, is replacing 60,000 Chinese workers with robots, prompting suggestions that the competition of the future will be between
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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Figure 3.4 Map of Climate Change Ho
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CHAPTER FOUR Leveraging U.S. Streng
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Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing
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106 Strategic Choices for a Turbule
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Part Two Strategic Choices
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