STRATEGIC

xxviii Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
also be particularly important in the coming decades, given the increasing
recognition that the more globalized and complex our societies
become, the more exposed they will be to systemic global risk. Of particular
concern is the lack of preparedness for next-generation cascading
disasters—so-called “global network disasters” or “network of networks”
disasters. Preparation and preventive action may be urgent even when
the perception of risk is not. Humans tend to value future benefits less
than immediate ones, but this is a cognitive error. Assuming that morefrequent
or more-severe disasters or shocks could be the new norm, key
elements of resilience that can be encouraged by the federal government
in its domestic and international planning include preparing for a long
recovery period, and recognizing that another disaster may strike while
a community is still recovering from the first; establishing distributed,
networked systems of communication and response that can offset the
destruction of centralized governmental systems (for example, from terrorism
or cyberattacks); encouraging a more collaborative style of leadership
and management; ensuring that management systems are not so
“lean and mean” (or dependent on single supply chains for vital relief
supplies) that they cannot ramp up in times of disaster; and redesigning
policies, programs, infrastructure, and virtual networks to strengthen
adaptability, recovery, and resilience capabilities.
Strategic Choices
The second half of this report examines the nature of strategy and
proposes three plausible alternative strategic concepts reflective of the
contemporary political debate. A presidential formulation of an overarching
statement of national purpose and priorities for engaging the
world—better put, a strategic concept or orientation—has value in
defining broad national goals and priorities and providing the political
rationale for domestic and allied support. It gives direction to diplomacy
and defenses, promotes bureaucratic coordination, and enables
more-efficient use of resources. Despite the limitations of strategizing
and policy planning in a turbulent world—to paraphrase President