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166 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity<br />
tries could boost employment and wages in middle-skill jobs, while at<br />
the same time raising prices on goods that lower-income earners buy,<br />
thus lowering their standard of living. In addition, employers may have<br />
greater incentives to fund labor-saving innovations, so that employment<br />
opportunities in some jobs could decline over the medium to<br />
long term.<br />
Obviously, this strategy would fail if the leadership of China or<br />
Russia proved to be more assertive than expected and willing to risk<br />
friction or even conflict with the United States or U.S. partners. It<br />
would also fail if it did not improve domestic fiscal stability, economic<br />
growth, and living standards for the majority of Americans, to compensate<br />
for any decline in its military advantage. Nevertheless, the<br />
United States would remain the strongest military force in the world. It<br />
would retain its standing as one of the leading world powers, although<br />
no longer the leading power.<br />
The American people would need to accept that other nations—<br />
notably China—will seek to expand their influence wherever U.S. power<br />
appears to be receding. For example, the TPP agreement does not include<br />
either China or India, whereas the Regional Comprehensive Economic<br />
Partnership (RCEP), which remains under negotiation, includes all of<br />
the ASEAN nations as well as China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia,<br />
and New Zealand, but excludes the United States. China recently<br />
announced it would seek accelerated conclusion of the RCEP, in a move<br />
to fill the vacuum created by the expected U.S. withdrawal from the<br />
TPP, a plan that U.S. partners in Asia could well embrace. 27 Likewise,<br />
China has indicated that it would stick with the Paris Agreement even if<br />
the United States pulls out, a move that could propel Beijing into a global<br />
leadership role on carbon reduction issues. 28<br />
As discussed, the climate change risks associated with this strategy<br />
depend on two currently unknowable facts: the magnitude of climate<br />
change on the United States and the rest of the world, and the<br />
27 “China Wants Quick Close on Regional Trade Agreement for Asia,” Bloomberg News,<br />
November 24, 2016.<br />
28 Jill Baker, “Climate Expert Says China Committed to Battling Climate Change—Even<br />
If the U.S. Drops out of Paris Accord,” Forbes.com, November 14, 2016.
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