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88 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity cation by 2020 (unless supply increases). 51 As seen in Table 4.1, trend lines indicate the United States, which is currently graduating only 2.8 million students with bachelor’s, master’s, or doctoral degrees per year, 52 will not increase the number of college graduates commensurate with expanding demand. These figures do not take into account the smaller number of students graduating in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), the skills expected to be most in demand from employers. Only about 28 percent of college undergraduates enter STEM fields, and attrition from those academic programs is high. Even though starting salaries for STEM graduates are much higher than for other fields, employers say job openings in STEM fields are harder to fill. Moreover, at current rates, immigration will not be sufficient to plug the skills gap in the advanced economies. 53 The U.S. economy may continue to benefit, as it has in the past, from its ability to employ immigrants, but it will clearly need to produce more highly educated people, both to fill jobs and to create higher-paying ones. Even as Table 4.1 Expanded Supply of U.S. Graduates in Higher Education Years Bachelor’s Degrees Master’s Degrees Doctoral Degrees 2015–2016 1,846,000 802,000 179,000 2020–2021 1,933,000 920,000 198,000 2024–2025 2,029,000 1,019,000 209,000 SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics, “Digest of Education Statistics,” Table 318.10, “Degrees Conferred by Postsecondary Institutions, by Level of Degree and Sex of Student: Selected Years, 1869–70 through 2024–25,” web page, April 2015. 51 Anthony P. Carnevale, Nicole Smith, and Jeff Strohl, Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020, Washington, D.C.: Georgetown Public Policy Institute, Georgetown University, June 2013, pp. 15–21. The United States has been producing too few highly educated workers since the 1980s. The authors estimate that 65 percent of all jobs will require postsecondary education by 2020, up from 28 percent in 1973; 26 percent will require less than a high school degree or a high school diploma; 30 percent will require some college or an associate’s degree; 24 percent will require a bachelor’s degree, and 11 percent will require a master’s degree or more. 52 National Center for Education Statistics, 2015. 53 Dobbs et al., 2012, p. 46.
Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing with Vulnerabilities 89 employment improves, structural problems in the U.S. labor force persist. As of April 2016, the United States had a notable gap between the number of job openings (on average, more than 5 million) and the number of people who are unemployed (about 8 million, of whom more than a quarter have been unemployed for six months or more). 54 This does not include the number of people working part-time involuntarily (6 million, as of April 2016) or those who have are dropped out of the labor force entirely (568,000 “discouraged workers” who have stopped looking for jobs) or the 1.7 million more people who had looked for work in the past year but not in the past month, and so were not counted in the official unemployment rate. There is vigorous debate over the extent to which the so-called “skills mismatch” argument explains this phenomenon of unfilled jobs even during periods of high unemployment. 55 How many Americans are not working because they lack the skills that employers demand? Other possible causes include wages that are too low to attract available workers (hourly wages have not rebounded even though employment has), a reluctance by employers to invest in job training programs, family responsibilities, ill health, lack of transportation, 56 unwillingness to relocate, inability to pass a drug screening test, 57 or an arrest or criminal record. 58 54 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2016. 55 See, for example, Gary Burtless, “Unemployment and the ‘Skills Mismatch’ Story: Overblown and Unpersuasive,” Brookings Institution, blog, July 29, 2014; and Elise Gould, “Still No Sign of a Skills Mismatch—Unemployment is Elevated Across the Board,” Economic Policy Institute, blog, January 13, 2015; and Tyler Cowan, “Skill Mismatch Unemployment is Real and Significant,” MarginalRevolution, website, November 21, 2015. 56 Dobbs et al., 2012. 57 Jackie Calmes, “Hiring Hurdle: Finding Workers Who Can Pass a Drug Test,” New York Times, May 17, 2016. 58 The Federal Bureau of Investigation had more than 77 million individuals on file in its master criminal database in 2014. Gary Fields and John R. Emshwiller, “As Arrest Records Rise, Americans Find Consequences Can Last a Lifetime: Even When Charges Are Dropped, a Lingering Arrest Record Can Ruin Chances of a Job,” Wall Street Journal, August 18, 2014.
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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CHAPTER EIGHT Option II: “The Ind
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Option II: “The Indispensable Nat
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CHAPTER NINE Option III: “Agile A
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Option III: “Agile America”: Ad
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CODA The Challenge of Leadership: A
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The Challenge of Leadership: Aligni
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