STRATEGIC

Option I: “Come Home America”: Domestic Renewal, International Restraint 161
would be modernized but land-based nuclear capabilities would not.
Nuclear bombers would be retained. To the extent they are feasible,
arms control agreements would become more desirable under such a
strategy, and Washington might consider attempting to negotiate new
arms control agreements for nuclear, space, and cyber weapons.
Climate Change
Even if the United States were to meet its own ambitious targets
for greenhouse gas emissions, the behavior of other large emitters—
notably China and India—will be the determining factor in whether
global warming of more than 2° C can be prevented. (China and
India have both signed the Paris Agreement but their pledges are voluntary.)
If humankind cannot stop the degree of global warming that
now seems likely, the U.S. government’s duty would be to prepare the
country to adapt to the consequences.
Assumptions
Limiting the magnitude of climate change falls squarely within the
realm of problems beyond the control of the United States to fix. There
are several premises about climate change that would be consistent
with a strategy of domestic renewal and international restraint:
• The impacts of climate change over the next decades will prove
relatively small, while the cost to the United States and other
large economies of attempting to decarbonize quickly will prove
unacceptably high.
• The reliance on international norms, inherent in the voluntary
pledges of the Paris Agreement, will prove insufficient to induce
other countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
• China will grow faster than the United States while emitting more.
Whether the Trump administration will withdraw from the Paris
Agreement, or attempt to modify it in some way, is unclear. If it chose
either to withdraw or modify, other nations might well abandon their